Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO
23N79W. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
TO 64W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN TWO OTHER AREAS BEGINNING AT 36
HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. N OF
28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16
FT. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 80W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N26W AND
2N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
5N41W 14N29W BEYOND 19N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP...
AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1 MILE TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AT NEW
IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG AT GALLIANO IN LOUISIANA...2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG AT
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IN PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N78W 19N83W 15N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N84W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SOME FOG MAY BE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W... ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR
15N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO
35N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 69W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 28N54W...TO 19N69W AND THE
EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 31N40W TO 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N30W TO 22N36W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-24N47W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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