Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 220528

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The African monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N13W
and continues to 01N22W. The ITCZ begins near 01N22W and extends
to 01N49W. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm north of the



Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb
high located near 33N85W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds
prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are moving
across the northwest Gulf ahead of a cold front that is currently
located over central Texas/northern Mexico. With this, dense fog
is expected to develop towards the morning hours in the northwest
Gulf waters mainly north of 25N and west of 93W. Caution must be
exercised transiting in this area. The front is expected to enter
the northwest Gulf by Monday morning, then it will extend from
Dixie, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning,
and from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail behind the


Clusters of showers are ongoing across the northwest Caribbean,
related to diffluence aloft at the base a sharp mid to upper
trough extending from the SE CONUS into the eastern Gulf. Fresh
to strong winds are noted in latest scatterometer data over much
of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds being along
the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted
in the elsewhere across the basin. Persistent ridging north of
the area will allow for strong to near-gale force trades to pulse
along the northwest coast of Colombia through the week. The tail
end of a cold front is forecast to reach the northwest Caribbean
waters by late Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northeasterly
winds will prevail across the northwest Caribbean waters through
the week as the front continues moving the west Atlantic waters.


Ridging dominates the west Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1025 mb
high pressure centered located near 32N75W and 29N70W. Diffluence
aloft on the east side of a mid to upper trough over the Florida
Peninsula is supporting scattered showers across the Bahamas from
21N-27N between 72W-78W. At the surface, a trough accompanies this
convection extending from 27N74W to 23N73W. To the east, a
stationary front extends across the east-central Atlantic from
31N39W to 24N45W to 22N58W. Scattered showers are noted within 200
nm to the east of the front mainly north 21N. A 1035 mb high pressure
centered over SW Portugal adjacent waters extends a ridge over
the eastern Atlantic region north of 20N. The high pressure over
the west Atlantic will shift east to just southwest of Bermuda
through the next 24 hours, then shift north of Bermuda Mon night
allowing a cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast by
Tuesday afternoon. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to
Straits of Florida Wednesday night and from 27N65W to Central
Cuba on Thursday night.

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