Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 06N15W 03N25W
02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO
03N BETWEEN 03W AND 06W...BETWEEN 14W AND 15W ALONG 06N...FROM
03N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N ALONG 54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT IS
ALONG 28N85W 32N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N84W 30N83W BEYOND 32N82W...FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N77W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KVAF...AND KEMK.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KEHC...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIKT...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON SOUTHWARD...IFR IN
VICTORIA AND LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LIFR IN JASPER. LIFR IN HUNTSVILLE. IFR IN CONROE AND TOMBALL.
IFR IN HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW
IBERIA. IFR IN LAFAYETTE. MVFR IN GALLIANO AND BOOTHVILLE. HEAVY
RAIN IN BATON ROUGE. THUNDER IS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN IN SLIDELL. IFR AND MVFR ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING
REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. THUNDER IN GULFPORT. THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN IN
BILOXI. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN GULF SHORES. LIFR
AT THE CAIRNS ARMY FIELD IN FORT RUCKER AND IN DOTHAN.
FLORIDA...MVFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARIANNA. IFR IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH SPANS THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N68W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...MVFR CEILING AT 1600 FEET.
PUNTA CANA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN PART OF THE
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN WERE
IN THE OBSERVATION A FEW HOURS AGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NOW...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N34W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N29W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 28N30W 21N40W 21N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N44W TO 21N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N55W TO
22N64W AND 20N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT FROM 21N40W NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 29N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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