Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 271710

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean this
evening as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic.
Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of
Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight,
and early morning hours, starting this evening through Thursday.
Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of Colombia.
See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N30W to
the coast of South America at 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-04N between 07W-
11W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over a large
area within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ.



A 1032 mb high is centered off the coast of Virginia near 37N72W
producing 10-20 kt SE surface flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair
weather is over the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow is
over the Gulf with strong subsidence. Expect fair weather over
most of the Gulf over the next 24 hours as the surface high
moves E. Morning fog is possible along the N Gulf States,
between Corpus Christi Texas and Pensacola Florida.


A surface trough is over the far W Caribbean Sea from Cozumel
Mexico to San Pedro Sula Honduras moving W. Scattered showers
are from 18N-22N between 85W-88W. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over
the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N
Colombia. More scattered showers are over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Furthermore, scattered showers are now
advecting over the Windward Islands from the Atlantic. In the
upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the W
Caribbean near 18N80W. Strong subsidence covers the entire
Caribbean and Central America. Expect gale-force winds along the
coast of Colombia starting this evening. See above. Also expect
clusters of scattered showers to move W over the Caribbean,
within the tradewind flow, during the next 24 hours.


Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W in the
tradewind flow. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air/strong
subsidence aloft over the entire island, thus thunderstorms are
not likely. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.


A surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, is over the west
Atlantic from 31N55W to 27N60W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 32N46W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic
from 31N41W to 28N46W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
this trough. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N31W.
Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 45W. Expect over the next 24 hour
for another cold front to dip into the central Atlantic and
reach 31N47W with showers.

For additional information please


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