Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 250026
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
626 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FAIRLY ORGANIZED BUT NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED FROM
SUMMIT COUNTY INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
HIGHER FOR THIS NARROW CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

RAINSHOWERS ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF PARK AND NE INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE FRONT RANGE WITH BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO JUST OVER 1
INCH BY THE EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BACK SE WITH
MOISTURE TRANSITION EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE DRYING OVER THE
REGION BRINGING SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL STAVE OFF
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE MORNING HELPING TO
CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL HEATING TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN POSITION OF HIGH AND MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH
COLORADO. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. END RESULT WILL BE DRY OR LOW
POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA SATURDAY EVENING...THEN HIGHER
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. DRIER AND
WARMER AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
ISOLATED LATED DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE. ONCE THIS TROF MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SHOWERS STILL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH
02Z-03Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE DECREASING THEREAFTER WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO NORMAL DRAINAGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS BY 04Z-06Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH MID LEVEL
CEILING AROUND 9000-10000 FEET BREAKING UP AFTER SHOWERS END.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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