Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 222218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. SNOW COVERAGE HAS INCREASED FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT AGAIN IT IS LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT. IR SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW ENHANCEMENT RIGHT WITH THE JET MAXIMUM. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
AND EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FIELD. MODELS HAVE THE JET MAXIMUM LEAVING
THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. THERE IS WEAK QG
VERTICAL ASCENT PROGGED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MORE SO
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF MONDAY. FOR MOISTURE...THE CWA LOOKS
SATURATED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN THERE IS A DECREASE
PROGGED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE 0.10 TO 0.25
INCH OF LIQUID FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AND A TAD FOR THE REMAINING THREE QUARTERS. FROM 06-12Z
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A TAD FOR ALL THE CWA...WITH A BIT MORE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER. THERE IS A TAD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...A BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER.
THERE IS A TAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHLIGHTS...THE JET LOCATION
WILL BE THE KEY. WILL LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE
SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OR NOT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GO
CLOSE TO ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. MONDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THEN CURRENT READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
I-70 INCLUDING SOUTH PARK...WITH ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE
DIMINISHING. CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS...HOWEVER DRAINAGE WINDS MAY STAY
STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN TONIGHTS READINGS AS WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
CLEAR SKIES...SNOW COVER AND LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE WITH
EXPECTED SNOW COVER STILL. AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER MINIMUM
WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN OUR ACTIVE PATTERN IS SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH
INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS AS THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKENED ITS
PACE IN THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE TO FAST COMPARED TO
OTHER MODELS. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE DOWN THE
PLAINS SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING THEN GOOD UPSLOPE FOR
ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD. THE BULLSEYE OF UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS FURTHER IN SW CO WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER OUR
AREA. OVERALL SEE THIS SYSTEM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT AT
THIS POINT NOT AS MUCH AS WE`VE SEEN OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO WANT TO EXTEND THE STORMS AFFECT
OVER THE PLAINS NOW INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS A
FEW RIPPLES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVES OVER THE STATE. LOOKS LIKE THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE KEEPS GETTING TRANSPORTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW AGAIN DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CALIFORNIA AND A JET PUSHES INTO CO WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE STATE SATURDAY. WILL LOOK FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

NORTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER
00Z...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 03Z...THEN LIGHT NEAR DRAINAGE
WINDS INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CEILINGS BELOW OVC040
THROUGH 12Z...THEN THINGS WILL IMPROVE. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MOST OF TONIGHT WITH VSBYS BELOW 4SM -SN MUCH OF TONIGHT.
EVERYTHING WILL IMPROVE THROUGH MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ034>041.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ033-
043-045>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK



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