Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200306
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
906 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The cold front has moved into the base of the foothills bringing
gusty ENE winds to the plains and Denver Metro. Lingering snow
showers over the high elevations will come to an end over the next
few hours as dryer flow moves in with increased subsidence.
Ceilings will scatter out bringing temperatures into the upper 30s
to lower 40s overnight. Next system currently in place over the
West coast moving into CA. This system will bring a mixture of
rain and snow to the region Thursday into Friday. Latest NAM
model guidance shows a cold push Friday night that could bring
snow levels down to 5500 ft. GFS and EC still show levels hovering
around 6000ft. Still maintain the possibility of a rain and snow
mix for the plains by midnight Friday with mostly rain expected.
Amounts continue to be in the 0.75 to 1.5 inch range by early
Saturday. Made minor changes to current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Current analysis shows isolated showers/virga developing over the
northeastern plains, but these will dissipate by early evening as
airmass stabilizes and dries in the subsident environment. The
same can be said for the mountain rain and snow showers. Gusty
winds will also diminish through the course of the evening with a
stabilizing boundary layer and a weakening gradient. The drier
airmass and weakening winds will allow for a cool night with
closer to normal temperatures.

On Thursday, Q-G lift will increase ahead of the next approaching
storm system. Increasing mid level moisture and instability will
lead to the development of convective showers by afternoon. They
will first develop over the higher terrain and then spread
northeast onto the adjacent plains late in the afternoon and
through the evening. We can expect a few embedded thunderstorms
too with CAPE of 300-800 J/kg. Could see an inch or so of
accumulation over the higher mountains with more tomorrow
night...see long term section below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The potent Pacific storm is still on track to move across Colorado
on Friday. Precipitation ahead of the storm will begin in the
mountains Thursday afternoon and spread onto the plains by
evening. QG-diagnostics show plenty of rising motion as the storm
crosses over the state, so it looks like a good amounts of
precipitation across the forecast area. Temperatures will cool
enough for snow levels to drop to around 6000 feet by Friday
morning. Significant amounts of snow are expected in the
mountains, but accumulations will be hampered by initially warmer
temperatures. On the plains, rain overnight and Friday morning may
mix with or change to snow at times, but no accumulations are
expected at lower elevations. QPF amounts could approach an inch
of liquid equivalent in the mountains and out across the plains.

The storm is forecast to be moving out of the state by Friday
afternoon with precipitation winding down. Cool temperatures will
linger over the state into Saturday, and cool temperatures at
mid-levels will produce unsettled conditions. Scattered snow
showers will continue in the mountains through Saturday and some
rain showers will also pop up on the plains.

Drier and warmer weather is expected Sunday and Monday as strong
ridging builds over the state. The next passing weather
disturbance is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday with another
round showers in the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 854 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Wind
speeds will range from 5 to 10 mph through the evening from the
east before turning SE by 10z. Winds will never go to drainage due
to influence from incoming system with SSE winds picking up by
the morning hours with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Ceilings will
fill in between 18 and 19z going down to 040-050 by 21z with the
possibility of rain showers.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Bowen


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