Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161341
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
741 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Reference the Fire Weather Discussion below.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A warm and dry airmass remains entrenched over Colorado as an
upper level ridge slides across the state today. Temperatures are
expected to climb back to levels similar to yesterday afternoon.
The lee trough of low pressure that has been over the I-25
corridor the past couple days is forecast to shift farther east
today, increasing the pressure differences between mountain areas
and the plains. This will cause stronger winds than we have had
over the past couple days. The warm temperatures will also act to
mix the winds at upper levels down to the surface. Afternoon
winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph. All these conditions will work to increase the fire danger
across the plains. (See Fire Weather section below.) With high
temperatures in the upper 70s, it is hard to believe that Spring
doesn`t arrive until next Monday. Skies today across the forecast
area will be a mix of sunshine and mid to high level clouds.
Mountain temperatures will be cooler than on the plains, but still
in the 50s to lower 60s, much warmer than seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

WNW flow aloft will be over nrn CO on Fri with dry weather
continuing.  A cool fnt will move across the plains of nern CO in
the morning which will drop temps around 10 degrees. However
readings will still remain abv normal.

For the weekend an upper level ridge will be over the area on Sat
and then will shift slowly eastward by Sun.  This will lead to a dry
ptrn over the area with much abv normal temps.  Highs on Sat will
range from 75 to 80 over nern CO with upper 70s to mid 80s on Sun.
Thus could see a few record highs especially on Sun.

On Mon the flow aloft will be wsw with quite a bit of moisture
embedded in the flow.  Thus may see a chc of showers over the higher
terrain by aftn.  Across nern CO a cdfnt will move across the plains
Sun night into Mon morning.  Thus aftn highs will range fm the upper
50s over the far northeast corner with mid to upper 60s closer to
the foothills.  Meanwhile a wk disturbance moving across Mon night
may bring a slight chc of showers to portions of the plains.

By Tue an upper level ridge will build over the area with only some
higher level moisture embedded in the flow so will not mention any
pcpn.  As for highs readings will remain at least 10 degrees abv
normal across nern CO.  For Wed stg swly flow aloft will be over the
area with some increase in moisture across the higher terrain so
will mention a chc of showers.  Across nern CO it looks dry and
windy with above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Ceilings and visibilities will be unrestricted and of no concern through
today and tonight, but gusty winds are expected to spread across
the Denver area during the afternoon. West to northwest winds
gusting up to 30 knots will have an impact on departure and
arrival patterns. Winds are expected to develop by around noon and
then continue through 6 or 7 PM MDT. Lower speeds and winds out
of the south to southwest are expected later tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 735 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for
the foothills of Larimer and Boulder Counties, FWZ215. Driest
conditions will be below 7500 feet, with rh values less than 15
percent this afternoon coupled with gusty winds of 40-50 mph.
Not as much wind expected across FWZ216 so have canceled the Fire
Weather Watch there.

Warm temperatures again today will be accompanied by lower
humidities and more wind than yesterday. Dew points are expected
to range from the low teens to lower 20s as air temperatures climb
to the upper 70s. This will result in afternoon humidities as low
as 8 to 13 percent. West to northwest winds will also increase to
20 to 35 mph, creating very high to extreme fire danger levels.
Extreme fire behavior will be possible if fires get started. Red
Flag Warning will be in effect for all of the northeast Colorado
plains.

Fire danger will decrease on Friday as a cool front affects the
plains. Over the weekend Fire danger will increase again, from
the foothills across the plains due to much above normal
temperatures and low humidity levels. Winds will also increase,
especially on Sunday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ215-238>251.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Cooper



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