Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VIS. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL LOWER TO 5 TO 10
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TOUGH FORECAST TODAY AS H2
LOW SPIN TO THE SOUTH AND SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT
ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW POP CHANCES OF 0 TO 5 PERCENT. LAST
NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM
YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS JOINED BY THE TUTT LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A FEW SHOTS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH CHANCES WONT BE VERY GOOD
AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN MOVING TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND OUR PWATS DROP DOWN TO
1.2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PWATS JUMPING BACK
UP TO 1.7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DO
THINK ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING
MONDAY WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING FAR OUT IN TIME.

MID LEVEL HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AND BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER /THURSDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK/...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS 20 KNOT WINDS BUILD
DURING THE DAY. OPEN GULF WATERS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...WITH A NOTICEABLE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHEAST GREATER THAN 10 SECONDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE
LAGUNA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS AS WELL FALLING TO NEAR 3 FEET BY THE
WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF MORE MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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