Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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426
FXUS64 KBRO 161038 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
538 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW CLOUDINESS HAS CLEARED OVER THE AERODROMES...
BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT HIGHER LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AS
WINDS FIRST BECOME MODERATE AND THEN BREEZY. CONVECTION SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM LOCALLY...AS DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. MODERATE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VFR TODAY WILL BECOME MVFR TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING WITHIN
THE BRO CWFA...ESPECIALLY AT KPIL...AS A RESULT OF THE MOIST SOILS
LEFTOVER FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

TODAY...THE MOST RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT KBRO INDICATED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA WILL DROP THIS VALUE
CLOSER TO 1.6 INCHES. WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AND HELPING
TO DAMPEN CONVECTION FORMATION...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
RIDING WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW OVERHEAD...
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WERE IN THE UPPER 80S...SO INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
90S APPEARED APPROPRIATE AND WERE RETAINED.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE NORTH OFF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DOES APPEAR TO SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE CRP CWFA...BUT LOCALLY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL GIVEN THE MODERATE FLOW
ONSHORE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES.

SUNDAY...STILL NO REAL REASON TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION WITH NO REAL
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...YET OPTED TO INDICATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO CRP AND TO GUARD AGAINST THE OFF CHANCE THAT SOMETHING FIRES UP
OVER NEIGHBORING MEXICO AND MOVES INTO THE BRO CWFA. WITH SLIGHTLY
LESSER CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...
BUT DECREASED TEMPERATURES 1 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED BY CURRENT MODEL DATA...AS THOSE APPEARED TOO WARM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH PERIOD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVERHEAD. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CAPPING OVERHEAD
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...EXCEPT 80S NEAR THE
COAST AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO HIGHER WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

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