


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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774 FXUS64 KBRO 270524 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1224 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 * Very warm and humid conditions with day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the forecast period. * Outside of the daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, marine conditions will generally be favorable through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 The short term forecast period will feature the continued breaking down of the 500 mb ridge or "heat dome" that resulted in a major and widespread heat wave over the Midwest and Eastern CONUS earlier this week. With Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on the southwestern fringe of this weakening and shifting 500 mb heat dome, temperature anomalies are expected to average out near climatology through Saturday. Overnight low temperatures tonight and Friday night are progged to be in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, daytime high temperatures Friday and Saturday are progged to be in the low to mid 90s, with the exception of 80s along South Padre Island and the Lower Texas Coast beaches. Southeasterly flow near the sfc and aloft will continue to help keep atmospheric moisture content elevated through Saturday. That said, the combination of sfc based differential heating and elevated precipitable water (PWAT) values will yield day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to be isolated on Friday with low (5-15%) chances, and more isolated to scattered on Saturday with low to medium (10-30%) chances. The highest probabilities will be located closer to the Lower Texas Coast and over the Gulf Waters. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the extended forecast period amid a large-scale pattern shift with the aforementioned 500 mb sub-tropical heat ridge shifting/retrograding westward towards the Desert Southwest (4-Corners region). In addition to the very warm and humid conditions that`s expected to continue through the extended, global forecast models/ensembles are suggesting that the pattern could become a bit more unsettled/wet as we close the chapter of June 2025 and open the books to July 2025. While most of the moisture in the form of showers and thunderstorms will be connected/linked to the monsoonal flow over north-central Mexico into New Mexico, there will be day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. According to multiple forecast solutions, a nearby shortwave trough will be the impetus of day-to-day showers and thunderstorms. For the most part, probabilities and coverage are expected to be a bit higher than prior days, courtesy of this feature nearby. The best opportunity and coverage for showers and thunderstorms appear to be Sunday (June 29) and Monday (June 30). Any convection that develops will have the capabilities of producing heavy rainfall and/or gusty winds. Due to the increased cloud coverage and rain chances, temperatures will continue to run near climatological levels for late June/early July standards through the forecast period. Daytime high temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 90s (80s along/near the coast). Meanwhile, nighttime lows will be in the 70s through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Some isolated afternoon convection will be possible along the sea breeze this afternoon, however the probability of any of these showers or thunderstorms moving over a TAF site remains to low for inclusion in the TAFs. In the event that one of these storms does approach an airfield, ceilings and visibility may briefly drop to MVFR or IFR levels. Otherwise, southeasterly winds are expected to continue, with clear skies overnight giving way to mostly sunny skies later this morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through the forecast period with low to moderate seas and light to moderate southeast winds. Occasional gusts upwards cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. Otherwise, daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 77 92 78 / 10 10 20 20 HARLINGEN 94 74 94 75 / 10 0 20 10 MCALLEN 97 77 97 78 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 87 80 / 10 10 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 77 90 78 / 10 0 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...60-BE