Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252346
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE EAST AND A
CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
LOW WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID DAY FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK QUITE
SLIM THROUGH 00Z. IN FACT...FCST SOUNDING DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT
MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A MODEST DECK OF CLOUDS. WILL
THEREFORE PULL MENTION OF POPS IN SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEKEND ARE
LOOKING DIMMER BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN CONNECTION WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING.
MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE PEAK TIME OF LIFT
BUT WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. BY THE
TIME BETTER SATURATION OCCURS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LIFT HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE
LACKLUSTER MOISTURE PROFILES...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES BUT WILL PREDOMINATELY FAVOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAPPING INTO ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NETHER
REACHES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C ANYWHERE FROM THREE TO FIVE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AROUND 1052-1056MB DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL NOT LIKELY BUDGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RETURNING TO
LEE TROUGHING NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING A TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AROUND MID WEEK. MOISTURE SPREADING OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS MAY
BRING SOME SNOW AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE TROUBLESOME BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE
WITH THE FORECAST. LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  46  16  36  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
TULIA         31  49  20  37  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     33  53  21  38  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     33  56  23  39  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       34  58  24  39  20 /   0  10  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   33  57  26  40  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  57  26  39  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  58  26  39  21 /   0  10  20  10   0
SPUR          35  62  28  41  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     38  62  30  40  24 /   0  10  20  20   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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