Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 282056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
356 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The main focus for the forecast will be in the immediate future
concerning severe potential. Storms have already been firing for the
past few hours and are expected to continue into the late
afternoon/early evening. Along with hail one of the main threats for
areas off the caprock is tornadoes as the warm front begins to push
northward and the dryline pushes eastward. The main area of concern
with tornadic activity will be along the triple point. One big
question concerning convection will be the redevelopment of
thunderstorms across the South Plains later this evening as the
dryline temporarily retreats westward. Most high-res models show
redevelopment of convection along the dryline as far west as the
TX/NM state line. Given that models are in a consensus with
redevelopment of convection along the dryline and the dryline does
show current signs of retreating likely PoPs will be extended
northwestward across the FA after 00Z but quickly drop off starting
around midnight from west to east. This will also be supported by
upper level lift moving in from NM that has already allowed for
convection to develop west of the FA.

For the long term there are no significant changes with the
exception of possible precip for later this weekend. Both global
models have come in much drier for the FA with more southwesterly
flow aloft. While PoPs are still present in the current forecast
they have been lowered to slight chance and may need to be dropped
depending on future evolution of the forecasted upper low.



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