Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
523 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017


VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northwesterly
winds will back to the southwest this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

The important features for this morning`s forecast are an upper
level low located over the Gulf of California and an upper level
short wave trough located along the coast of British Columbia. The
low is progged to open and then move quickly to the northeast
across West Texas on Saturday. Modest lift will accompany the
trough, but the mid level moisture tap will remain on the
downstream/eastern side of the trough with precipitation likely to
stay to the south and southeast of the forecast area. Will
maintain the precipitation-free forecast. Ahead of the trough will
be some modest low level moisture advection into the mainly the
eastern half of the forecast on the strength of some breezy south
to south-southwest winds. The latter feature mentioned above will
dive quickly southeastward on the downstream side of an upper
ridge located over the eastern Pacific off the coast of
California. The energy associated with this shortwave is progged
to briefly close as it bottoms out over southern Arizona followed
by an ejection across New Mexico on Sunday and the Texas Panhandle
Sunday night. Models are coming into better agreement that this
system might have a little better moisture associated with it and
have begun to paint some light precipitation across mainly the
western third of the forecast area. Will raise PoPs a bit into the
chance category and expand the slight chance mention to the east.
Phase could be rain or snow and will depend to a large degree on
timing. Finally, the models continue to be consistent in
advertising amplification of the flow aloft and the development of
a broad trough over most of North America with the result being
cold air allowed to break loose from Canada. The initial cold
front is still progged to enter the forecast area Thursday, right
at the end of the forecast period. There remains wide variability
in the pattern heading into Christmas with the GFS trending more
open and the Canadian/ECMWF closing a deep low off well to our
west or southwest. Will continue to monitor as we head through the
weekend and into next week.




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