Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 270523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Have persisted with VFR conditions through the period and no
mention of TS. Thunderstorms across the southwestern and south
central Panhandle are moving slowly southward. Models have a poor
handle on them while satellite trends suggest a trend to the
southwest toward KCVS. There is a small chance these storms will
affect the terminals (KPVW with the highest possibility) but
confidence is quite low and will keep out of this set of TAFs.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals for the next 24
hours. Southerly breezes may give way to northerly ones Thursday
morning at KCDS and possibly KPVW due to outflows from t-storm
activity farther north and west.

Small t-storm cells that had developed over the far southwest
Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains have dissipated,
however we will hold on to low PoPs for these areas tonight as
more widespread activity to the north and west may tend to drift
southward with time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

A healthy summertime high continues to sit over the southern portion
of the country as a weak wave tracks westward across Coahuila. There
will be a tendency for the high to shift westward with time becoming
situated over the Great Basin by this time next week.  By this
Saturday, a weakness becomes somewhat more evident in the high
extending from Sonora toward the Uncompahgre/San Juans.  This, in
turn, has tended the northwesterly flow to be a bit weaker in the
latter extended than previously indicated.  Nevertheless, some
ripples in the mean flow to the north of the high pressure region
will help influence NW TX weather by way of a couple of frontal

The first of these fronts comes into the northern TX panhandle
tomorrow morning and indications are that there should be ongoing
precipitation along and near the boundary Thursday morning (though
still well north of our CWFA.)  This boundary should sink southward
during the day and serve as a mechanism for tstm initiation during
the late afternoon and evening.  Our northern zones will have the
best shot at seeing some precipitation.  The boundary then appears
to wash out near a lone from Aspermont to Amarillo and hang around
until we get a back door surge out of Oklahoma.  This will tend to
have the best storm chances up in our northwest (say, around
Childress/Paducah, etc.)   Another minor surge tries to push the
resultant theta-e ridge a bit further west on Saturday and Saturday
night.  Beyond that, more variance begins to appear in the synoptic
scale flow.




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