Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292322
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR with southerly winds of 10-15 knots. Line of TS in northeast
NM moving southeast is anticipated to weaken along its southern
half after sunset, while the remaining portion should persist
overnight near a NW-SE front in the Panhandle. CDS does stand a
fair chance of TS after midnight, so inserted a TEMPO TS for a few
hours. PVW and LBB may see spotty TS develop after 06Z along any
outflow boundaries, but this very conditional at the moment.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 145 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Another shot of rain tonight before precipitation chances wane.
Upslope flow north of outflow boundary located from NW to SE across
the forecast area...along with increasing low level winds and some
weak upper support and instability may allow a few thunderstorms or
complex to rake southeastward across the southern Panhandle and
perhaps a little farther south tonight aided by strengthening 25 to
30 knot low level jet. If the central South Plains sees these storms
before they weaken or dissipate...it would likely be around or after
midnight. Best chance of rain appears to be in the SE Panhandle in
the vicinity of Childress...from late evening into the overnight
hours. Severe potential is marginal but a few areas of moderate rain
and gusty outflow winds a possibility.

Pops in non mention category Saturday as ridge begins to expand
eastward and northward of our region. Also a return to breezy S/SE
winds on Saturday as surface low deepens across SE Colorado.
Temps near persistence...a little above average for late July.
James

LONG TERM...
Forecast remains mostly about the upper level ridge over the
southern tier of the continental US, its magnitude, and location
of its center/centers in relation to the southern high plains. A
flat, pretty uniform ridge through the weekend will amplify early
next work week with two centers forming, one of the 4-corners and
the other over East Texas/eastern Oklahoma and roughly generally
remain that way through the week. The weakness between the two
centers may become a little more pronounced over/near the region
which would allow for a better chance for rainfall as monsoonal
moisture to the west edges eastward. May see some precip sneak
into the western zones as early as Monday or Tuesday, but hold off
on insertion of precip mention until the better chances toward
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should remain above normal
through the week, in line with model blend and MOS guidance.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93



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