Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 220504
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1104 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Winds are expected to be quite breezy Wednesday
afternoon though should remain below levels which trigger blowing
dust.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Another 24 hours of relatively quiet weather on the way for the
region as we transition into zonal flow through Wednesday afternoon.
Clear skies tonight should help temperatures to fall but a light
westerly wind should keep them from bottoming out too much.  Zonal
flow aloft tomorrow will help weak lee troughing develop at the
surface bringing winds out of the west.  Speeds should remain at or
under 15 mph through the day, but the far western counties may see
some gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.  Westerly surface wind and
mostly clear skies will help to bump temperatures up another 5 to 7
degrees for highs tomorrow compared to today.  Dry conditions will
help to cure fuels across the region with little moisture recovery
overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

LONG TERM...
Primary concerns will be fire weather conditions across the long
term through at least the middle of next week, as warm and dry
conditions persist. The broad trough entering the CONUS through
central California tomorrow will gradually dig farther south as
the system shifts eastward by the end of the week, leaving any
remaining moisture associated with it well behind. We`ll see
winds ramp up during the middle of Thursday morning as dry air and
downsloping winds lift temps into the 70s on the Caprock and 80s
off the Caprock in the Rolling Plains. Despite cooler temps on
Friday winds will peak again near advisory level as the speed max
associated with the broad positively tilted trough briefly
combines with the southern jet helping to draw 30-40kt 700mb winds
to the surface, most likely across the southern portion of our
CWA. Have decided to push off any decisions regarding Fridays
potential wind event to see if subsequent model runs build some
more consensus as the NAM still confines best energy with the
passing trough to our north. Though temps moderate from Thursdays
peak, we will see some breezy winds, especially the farther west
you go on the weekend before the effects of the next dry trough
sweeps across our area next week beginning Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions can be expected for
several days over the next week. Tomorrow we will begin to see
very warm temperatures combined with increasing winds. Thursday
and Friday are anticipated to have impactful critical conditions
over a wide area. An upper level storm system will bring strong
winds along with very dry and warm surface air. Additional
elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
early next week as another favorable pattern may develop.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for TXZ021>042.

&&

$$

99/99/26


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