Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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040
FXUS64 KLUB 200440
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1040 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.AVIATION...
Convective showers associated with passing upper trough should
steer mostly/entirely north of KCDS and have already completely
passed KLBB and KPVW. Surface gradient should remain up modestly
overnight and opted to leave out mention of low level wind shear.
Weaker pressure gradient expected Tuesday with drier airmass and
more veered surface flow. Cold front still expected to pass KCDS
by mid-afternoon - trends are for slightly stronger and quicker
but probably hanging up along the edge of the Caprock before
surging southwest across KPVW and KLBB Tuesday evening. Also
seeing a trend for a thin moisture layer near 3000 feet above KCDS
behind the front - added scattered 3000 feet for now. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Winds will begin to ease around sunset tonight but remain out of
the southwest most of the day tomorrow keeping temperatures above
the normal but cooler than today. A backdoor cold front pushes
southwest out of Oklahoma through the Rolling Plains and into the
South Plains tomorrow night as surface high pressure builds over
the central and norther Plains. Unfortunately the cold front will
keep any deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to our east and
south east.

Despite deeper moisture not reaching our latitude we will see
dewpoints peak in the 40s to low 50s late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, followed by dropping temperatures behind the cold
front. This will set up the possibility for light rain, light
drizzle or even light freezing drizzle early Wednesday morning
followed by a dreary cloudy rest of the day on Wednesday with
temps above freezing in the afternoon which would result in light
rain or drizzle for the remainder of the day. Thursday morning may
see an expanded area and increased chances of freezing rain or
freezing drizzle overnight through mid-morning. Winds begin to
back to a more southerly component bringing temperatures above
freezing again by late morning to early afternoon again on
Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will remain in the 40s with the FROPA
early in the morning and slowly begin to rebound by Thursday
afternoon but still struggle to get above the low 50s in most
spots. Warmer drier air returns for the end of the week into the
weekend with occasionally breezy afternoon winds and temperatures
mainly in the mid 60s into next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-
033.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023.

&&

$$

99/99/04



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