Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 041112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OF LBB AND PVW AND IS JUST OF CDS.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         92  68  97  70 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     92  68  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     94  69  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       94  72  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   95  69  99  70 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    94  70  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  73 102  75 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          96  72 101  74 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  75 103  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31/


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