000
FXUS64 KLUB 220025
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
725 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Convection will approach and impact the KCDS terminal from the
southwest intermittently through the first few hours of the
forecast. Conditions will drop into the MVFR category at times due
to visibility-lowering +TSRA. Predominately VFR conditions will
return at KCDS terminal later this evening, likely before next
scheduled TAF.

Meanwhile, generally VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period at the remaining terminals, KLBB and KPVW.

JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Small disturbance, best seen on visible imagery this afternoon
southwest of Lubbock, helping to focus scattered showers and
storms across the central South Plains into the Permian Basin.
This area is expected to lift northeast this evening so have
carried chance POPs into much of the Rolling Plains. Plume of
high precipitable water air continues to stream north across west
Texas into western Oklahoma. This will likely support some
renewed growth overnight associated with a strengthening low level
jet and more shortwave energy streaming out of northern New
Mexico.

Upper level flow quickly transitions to northwest on Tuesday as
ridge axis begins to amplify across the desert southwest. This
pattern will be favorable for upscale growth of convection across
the southern Rockies into a forward propagating MCS overnight.
Have increased pops to likely category across the northwest South
Plains and southwest Panhandle as a result but these could easily
be extended further east for the remainder of the area as a
frontal boundary also gets into the mix. Greater uncertainty in
the rain forecast begins on Wednesday with the potential for the
frontal forcing to be driven further south by convective outflow
than model projections indicate. The upper flow also weakens
during this time and veers to the north/northeast as the midlevel
ridge axis briefly builds across the area. Have therefore backed
off on POPs north and east late Wednesday into Thursday. Continued
easterly upslope flow though should limit daytime heating with
a good mix of clouds and sun.

With the typically high quantity of low level moisture still in
place late in the week and another shortwave trough lifting across
the High Plains chose to accept the blended chance POPs Friday
into Saturday. We will have to also keep a close eye on any
influence the remnants of tropical storm Harvey will have over the
weekend as it moves north into central Texas.
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

02