Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280404
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1004 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SMALL UPDATE TO THE GRIDS ADDING MENTION OF PATCHY FOG GENERALLY
FROM LUBBOCK SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
INDICATED BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACKING OVERNIGHT THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. MODESTLY BREEZY CONNECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY RAPIDLY THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BUDGE OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC AIR BLAST.
SUNDAYS WEATHER WILL BE IN VERY SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.

LONG TERM...
VERY INTERESTING AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
THESE CHANGES WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD 1058 MB SURFACE HIGH WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY
BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON MONDAY...BUT REALLY COLD AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. TEMPS EARLY TUE
EXPECTED IN TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

ONCE COLD DOME HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED...DECENT WSW FLOW ALOFT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE COLD AIR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY RUN THE GAMUT NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT...SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNLESS
ATMOSPHERE CAN GENERATE SNOW IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH TEMPS NEAR
-10C. THEN AS COLUMN BECOMES WARMER DUE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT RAIN INTO THURSDAY. AS UPPER STORM SYSTEM LIFTS EAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION BETWEEN ECM AND GFS...SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS NEXT WEEK...
BUT LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WITH THE NEW YEARS
HOLIDAY APPROACHING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. STAY TUNED! JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  46  20  41  14 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         17  46  22  42  15 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     19  48  24  47  16 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     21  46  27  50  18 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       21  47  27  49  18 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   23  45  27  51  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    23  45  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     20  49  25  46  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          25  48  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     26  49  29  54  23 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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