000
FXUS64 KLUB 062122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING.  HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS A FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NIL.  SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP RATHER MILD
LOW TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.  TOMORROW WILL BE FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE
REGION AS SURFACE WIND SWINGS MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY.  MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE FRONT OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT SO THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEST WIND TO
BOTH DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM THINGS UP WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  THERE IS A 5 TO 7 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN MOS
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA WITH THE MAV BEING ON THE COOL SIDE AND
THE NAM ON THE WARM SIDE.  TENDENCY ON DAYS WITH A WEST WIND IS FOR
THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE TO BE CLOSER TO REALITY AND WENT ABOVE THE
MAV GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.  ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH COULD LIMIT INSOLATION SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS STILL ON TAP TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING /HENCE
TEMPS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 40S SATURDAY/. THIS FRONT IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH
WILL PROMOTE PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 MB PER 3 HRS. THIS SUGGESTS
NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH. CAA WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BE 0
DEGREES C /COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW ZONES/.
CONCURRENTLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL EXHIBIT AN APPROACHING UA
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE
CENTER/MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN SW OF THE REGION. NONETHELESS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UL SUPPORT IN COMBINATION WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING AND LOW-MID ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO
ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR SOUTH TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS /MORE SO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS/ AND MAINLY -RA BY THE AFTN. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE FA.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RETURN OF SFC LEE TROUGHING
AND A MODESTLY BREEZY SRLY SFC REGIME WILL BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL
WARMING /HIGHS IN THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. HOWEVER ONCE
AGAIN...ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING WILL PUT
THE BRAKES ON FURTHER WARMING BY MID-WEEK /HIGHS IN 50S ON
WEDNESDAY/. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY/S: CAA ALREADY IN PLACE WHILST AN UA DISTURBANCE NEARS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WRT TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SAID DISTURBANCE...THUS NIL POPS BEYOND
SATURDAY APPEARS VALID ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CAPROCK.  LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIND SPEEDS WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  75  29  44  25 /   0   0  40  20  10
TULIA         41  77  31  44  30 /   0   0  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     41  78  31  45  29 /   0   0  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     41  79  35  47  26 /   0   0  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       41  79  35  47  28 /   0   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   39  79  35  49  28 /   0   0  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    41  79  35  48  27 /   0   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     40  77  36  46  32 /   0   0  20  30  10
SPUR          42  78  36  47  31 /   0   0  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     43  78  37  48  31 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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