830
FXUS64 KLUB 020538
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorms chances continue through the day today.

 - Cooler than normal temperatures continue today with highs in the
   mid 70s to low 80s region wide.

 - Below average highs with daily thunderstorm chances persist
   through Friday, then warmer/hotter with lower rain chances
   thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The rain isn`t over just yet as chances continue early this morning
through this evening. There remains no change to the upper pattern
for today. Upper ridging remains stagnant over central CONUS. An
upper trough over the Great Lakes region will shift eastward over
New England by the end of today. A secondary upper trough will track
through the Desert Southwest. The monsoonal moisture plume will
remain over our region with this upper level pattern. Prevailing
southerly surface winds will keep dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
The abundance of moisture will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
through today. With weak low-level forcing and instability, any
thunderstorms that develop are expected to be sub-severe. QPF
indicates some areas could receive up to 0.25 inches today. Rainfall
and mostly cloudy skies today will keep the cooler than normal
temperatures going. Highs will be in the 70s for areas on the
Caprock and low to mid 80s for areas off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Fairly high precip chances and cooler than normal temperatures will
persist Wednesday through Thursday night as an upper level trough
opens up and lifts northeastward across the Desert Southwest
Thursday night and the southern High Plains Friday. The last bit of
rain chances will come Friday afternoon east of the Caprock before
subsidence combined with drying mid levels point to a likely precip-
free period. That period should be brief. Upper level high pressure
will build northward out of northern Mexico over the Four Corners
region through the weekend. This will allow mid level moisture to
move back over the region while warmer daytime temperatures and
lingering surface moisture point to the potential for convective
temperatures and diurnally-driven air mass thunderstorms to be
reached as long as the ridge to the west doesn`t strengthen too
much. Thus, daily 20-30 percent PoPs in the Saturday night through
at least Monday night look reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Periods of rain showers will continue through today but mainly
this morning. This will likely bring MVFR CIGS to the area this
morning similar to what we saw yesterday morning. There is a small
chance of IFR CIGS later this morning. However, chances are too
low at the moment to mention in the TAF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01