000
FXUS64 KLUB 282343
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT SET
TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AS MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH CONTINUED
CIRRUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF AN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY
WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S
AROUND CHILDRESS AND PADUCAH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMTH...BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS /GENERALLY SUSTAINED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE/ HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
THERMALLY DRIVEN MIXING CONCLUDES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES OF LATE...THOUGH READINGS SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT UP TO AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE
DAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO END OUR SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LEAD US INTO A BRIEF WET PERIOD. TOP DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO DIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SHIFTING SOME OF THE BEST LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL RAMP UP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT MOVING QUICKLY ONCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
US...PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLOWEST IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE SREF LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
FOR THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION PHASE REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
ITERATION. MOSTLY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH
A WET MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ON THE CAPROCK. NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION PHASE
COULD GO EITHER WAY BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK. THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS USUAL. MODELS ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF
SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO VARIED
EITHER BUT SREF PLUMES STILL SHOW AN EXTREMELY LARGE RANGE OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DRY SLOTTING MAY BE A FORMIDABLE FORCE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PREMATURELY SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ENTERING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL PERMANENTLY END
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  48  30  37 /   0   0  20  60
TULIA         37  51  32  42 /   0   0  10  60
PLAINVIEW     38  52  33  42 /   0   0  10  60
LEVELLAND     38  55  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
LUBBOCK       39  55  33  43 /   0   0  10  50
DENVER CITY   40  56  34  40 /   0   0  20  60
BROWNFIELD    40  56  34  42 /   0   0  10  60
CHILDRESS     43  58  36  49 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          43  57  35  47 /   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     43  59  37  49 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31