Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 180456

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1056 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR Conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A cloud deck
around 3-4k ft currently to the south of KLBB but is not expected
to move over any of the terminals. Modest S-SW breezes will
also continue.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

Clear skies, and thankfully, warmer temperatures have characterized
this afternoon as winds turned to the SSW and thicknesses slowly
increased. A weak trough over NM was evident on WV imagery this
afternoon, and this feature will pass to our south with little
fanfare on Thursday. Our warming trend will continue on Thursday as
cool NW flow aloft breaks up and thicknesses slowly increase. By
Friday, we see ridging building in with a marked increase in
thicknesses as well as temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s will be
well above seasonal norms. Saturday will be the warmest day of the
weekend. Went on the warm side of guidance due to decent SW flow
aloft, WSW winds at the surface and warm (16.5-18.2C) H85 temps.
This all in response to the approach of our next system on Sunday.
With this system approaching, also tapered winds up a bit from the
Blend for Saturday afternoon. Speaking of winds, Sunday will have
its fair share. An upper level low skimming to our north through
southern CO/KS will drag a Pacific front through the region. The
position of that low will determine who gets the brunt of the winds.
Right now, the Lubbock forecast area appears poised for the best
chance...which also means blowing dust. A little push to the north,
our neighbors up I-27 get to see NM blow by. A little further
south...we get the idea. As for precipitation chances on this round,
the Blend came in with some meager PoPs but chose to blend them out
attm. We will have extremely dry air in place ahead of the system,
and though some mid-level moisture appears to work its way in, the
lower levels just don`t look like they will support any appreciable
precip. Mind you, we are still several days out, so we`ll watch
closely on how this system develops. By the start of next week,
zonal flow and seasonal temps take over.

We are watching Friday and Saturday closely for possible Elevated
RFD conditions. Temperatures are expected to be well above
normal, and RH values, especially on the Caprock, will be in the
lower teens. The one question will be just how strong will the
winds become as our next system approaches. This will greatly
impact whether we stay in elevated, but sub-critical, fire danger
conditions or if we tip over into warranting a Fire WX Watch.




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