Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 041726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  93  65  93 /   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  93 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  91  64  92 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  68  94 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          69  95  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  99  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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