000
FXUS64 KLUB 111128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO KCDS AND IS
ABOUT TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH KLBB. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. SLIGHT
RISK OF FOG TOMORROW MORNING /THU/ THOUGH WE WILL ASSESS FURTHER
DATA BEFORE EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013/

SHORT TERM...
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IN STORE FOR TODAY THOUGH A BIT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.  NORTH AMERICAN FLOW IS DOMINATED BY HUDSON BAY LOW WITH
JET MAXIMA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.  A MINOR SUBTROPICAL JET MAX WILL EXTEND FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO THE ARKLATEX.  TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS SRN CA LOOKS
TO CUT OFF AT JET LEVELS RESULTING IN MINOR RIDING THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH HAS SURGED SOUTHWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND BY THE TIME THIS DISCUSSION IS PUBLISHED...SHOULD
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPS...PARTICULARLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THE
FRONT WILL NOT LEAD TO JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THESE PARTS.
WHILE MODES FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EVIDENT IN NWP...THE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON.  LIKELY THE MOST
RECOGNIZABLE FEATURE WILL BE THE MILDLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
UP AROUND 15-20 MPH.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
IN THE TEENS.

LONG TERM...
TEMPS WILL RECOVER IN THE 40S TOMORROW...AS SFC RIDGING /AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS/ SCOOTS EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SFC
WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING NW OF THE BAJA OF CALI...AS IT IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 0.5-1.00 INCH TOMORROW
NIGHT /WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/ COURTESY OF
A SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE...WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCONSISTENCY
WRT TO THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIP THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...HOWEVER A FEW MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AXIS/. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SAID AREAS TOMORROW NIGHT...DURING WHICH TIME UL ASCENT
IS MAXIMIZED. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN MADE A BIT CLEARER. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY A PROMINENT WARM NOSE /GREATER THAN 5
DEGREES C/ EVEN AFTER COOLING TAKES PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT SFC TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND THE FREEZING AND THUS AIDING IN CREATING A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER THE INCREASING WARM NOSE TREND LEADS ONE TO CONSIDER
LIQUID PRECIP BEING THE DOMINATE PHASE. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED IT
THAT WAY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THEREAFTER...BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WARMING FRI /50S/.
HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NW AND A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL SEND DRY COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SAT...MON AND AGAIN TUE. SAT/S FRONT IS SLIGHTLY STRONG THAN THE
REST...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S...VERSUS VERY LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE SENSIBLE WX MON AND TUE /50S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  15  49  29  56 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         36  17  47  29  56 /   0   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  17  47  30  58 /   0   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     40  19  46  29  59 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       38  17  47  30  59 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   40  22  43  29  58 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    38  19  44  30  59 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     32  16  41  31  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          35  17  42  30  58 /   0   0  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     36  20  43  33  60 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26