Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
178 FXUS64 KLUB 011722 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Scattered showers will continue across the area today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. - Below average highs with daily thunderstorm chances persist through Friday, then warmer/hotter with lower rain chances thereafter. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Today a mid level trough will move through the Great Lakes Region as an invert mid-level trough develops across our region and a mid level low digs over SOCAL. With plenty of atmospheric moisture in place thanks to the deep east-southeasterly surface flow surface dewpoints are progged to remain above the 60F mark with PWATs nearing 1.7 inches by late this afternoon. With moisture levels so high and QPF on the order of 0.3"-1.2", a chance for spot flash flooding is possible, but not likely area wide. WPC has placed an ERO (excessive rainfall outlook) slight risk southwest of a line from from Morton to Lubbock to Aspermont with the remaining portions of the CWA within a marginal risk. Similar to what was mentioned above main hazards within the slight risk area will be urban street flooding, flash flooding and spotty heavy rain showers. Tomorrow as the mid level high and low both move eastward our posture remains the same with ample moisture and another day of scattered rain showers. Another quarter of an inch of qpf is possible on the high end. A weak temperature gradient is present this afternoon and will occur tomorrow afternoon with highs in the upper 70s west of I27 and mid 80s east of 127. Tonight lows will remain warm and only fall into the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Fairly high precip chances and cooler than normal temperatures will persist Wednesday through Thursday night as an upper level trough opens up and lifts northeastward across the Desert Southwest Thursday night and the southern High Plains Friday. The last bit of rain chances will come Friday afternoon east of the Caprock before subsidence combined with drying mid levels point to a likely precip- free period. That period should be brief. Upper level high pressure will build northward out of northern Mexico over the Four Corners region through the weekend. This will allow mid level moisture to move back over the region while warmer daytime temperatures and lingering surface moisture point to the potential for convective temperatures and diurnally-driven air mass thunderstorms to be reached as long as the ridge to the west doesn`t strengthen too much. Thus, daily 20-30 percent PoPs in the Saturday night through at least Monday night look reasonable. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 SCT shra continues across the area with a mix of MVFR (KPVW) and VFR (KLBB/KCDS) conditions. SHRA is expected to impact all terminals today with a very slight chance of TSRA after 18Z. Chances for IFR conditions increase early tomorrow morning and should dissipate near 15Z tomorrow. Winds generally less than 7 kts from the SE are expected with stronger gusts possible near any storm. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...28