Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171717
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Made a small adjustment to PoPs to bring entire forecast area down
to just slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. Short term
models have been backing off on convection each run, though we are
not ruling out a few isolated storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue this afternoon. A slight chance for
widely scattered convection exists this afternoon and early
evening after 22Z, however, the confidence in any one storm
affecting a TAF site is too low for TAF mention attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front which stalled out yesterday afternoon was already
retreating back to the north returning higher surface dew points
to the rest of the South Plains and extreme southern Texas
Panhandle. We will start to undergo height rises overhead as the
upper level ridge over the southeastern US begins to migrate back
to the west. Instability will be less than observed the past
several days. Mixed layer values are progged to be around 1000
J/kg by this afternoon compared to around 2000 J/kg the past
several afternoons. Models are still insistent on developing
isolated to widely scattered convection this afternoon into the
early evening. Models have also been depicting a complex of storms
moving off the Raton mesa to the east-southeast this evening.
However, higher res models are not too excited about this prospect
and even the coarser models have backed off somewhat. Nonetheless,
any storms that do develop this afternoon will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall and as a result, localized flooding.

The aforementioned upper level ridge will build in stronger for
Friday through the weekend. It remains difficult to determine if
the ridge will completely suppress convection or not given the
fact that the ridge is not overly strong. Upper level winds will
back to the southwest early next week in advance of a digging
trough off the west coast. This will allow mid level moisture to
stream overhead and bring greater chances of afternoon/evening
convection.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

74/99



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