Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 010443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH GRIDDED DATA IN SHOWING STRATUS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SO ONLY
FORECASTING A FEW CLOUDS TO SNEAK INTO KLBB TERMINAL...OTHERWISE
VFR CONTINUES. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET HAS DIMINISHED ON LATEST
RUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AS THE MORNING INVERSION
BREAKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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