Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 201125
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.AVIATION...
CIGS EXPECTED TO VARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY AT
LBB AND PVW POST FRONT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
OCCASIONAL BRIEF DIP TO LIFR EXPECTED UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A pre-frontal trough was working its way out of the Rolling Plains
as of this writing...taking a round of heavy rainfall with it. As of
3 AM, the cold front was rapidly pushing southward into the central
TX Panhandle. A few showers and thunderstorms were developing along
the front from Dumas eastward, though west of that an area of strong
subsidence was evident.

The cold front should be through most of the South Plains by
daybreak, bringing one last shot at precipitation. The favored areas
will be the eastern zones once again, though we are not ruling out a
few showers and/or thunderstorms for the entire area as the front
pushes through. Past this, models show a sharp theta-e axis pushing
through by the afternoon, bringing in much drier air. Thus, PoPs
have been pulled down significantly past 18Z. Clouds should hang
around for most of the day, helping to keep highs a good 10 to 15
degrees below normal today.

LONG TERM...
A bit more coherence is noted in the various model solutions for the
extended this morning.  By 12Z Sunday, shortwave trough will be
positioned from a low over Hudson Bay into the Mississippi Valley.
A flattened high centered over the Bahamas will exist to the east.
To our west, a ridge will be present from NW Mexico up the spine of
the Rockies. Looking further west, we note a low coming ashore the
central BC coast and another off the coast of southern California.
And then there is T.C. Kay out SW of Baja.  The BC low will phase
with the SOCAL system late Monday leaving us in SWRLY flow as the
trough to our west becomes a bit better defined into Wednesday.  The
Canadian low then appears to lose some of the influence over the srn
trough late in the week with embedded disturbances to our north
while we remain in in SW flow aloft.

Mid level monsoon moisture will be maximized from Lubbock westward
to near ABQ on Sunday through strong moisture advection is noted at
H8 especially into Monday in response to the approaching trough.
POPS will probably favor the W and S on Sunday and then become a bit
more prevalent on Monday afternoon. Indications are that the
moisture will be shunted eastward late Monday along with reduced
rain chances on Tuesday which is consistent with last night and
yesterday`s runs. Blends continue to paint the idea of rainfall but
are likely quite overzealous with regard to coverage. In the latter
extended, plenty of moisture will remain in the area for scattered
storms just about each day. Thursday and Friday may see a bit better
shot at rain as synoptic conditions become just a bit better aligned
with another front impinging on the CWFA.  Guidance indicates this
front stalling across our area, but we have seen this a couple times
in as many weeks so won`t get too excited about that yet.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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