Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 050518
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. DRY COLD FROPA BY LATE MORNING WILL HERALD NW WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT LBB AND PVW - LESS SO AT CDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW SANS A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CREATE LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UT WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS
AN OPEN WAVE TROF. THE TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND. WINDS AROUND
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WILL BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT/LOW AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY
HARD TO ATTAIN WHEN OPTIMAL LIFT IS PRESENT. AT MOST HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN TOMORROW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESPONDING TO A LEE TROF WILL KEEP RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN ITS PLACE. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH ACROSS WEST OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE THIS
AFTN IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ESE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE
DISTURBANCE AS AN UA TROUGH...AND THOUGH THERE IS SOME /ALBEIT NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE/ LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LOOK SLIM TO NONE
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS BECAUSE MOISTENING IS
TAKING PLACE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WHILST LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY /PWATS RANGING FROM 0.20-0.30 INCHES/. HENCE...MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE THE RULE. THEREAFTER...UA
RIDGING WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AND THE RETURN TO A BREEZY
SRLY SFC FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 50S AND
60S. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TO VEER TO THE NW
COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.
CONCURRENTLY...A BROAD UA LOW MOVING ESE FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND DOWN A BREEZY COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY THUS DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM.
MEX GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY-LATE WEEK
/UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/...AS THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST SLOWLY
BEGINS TO MOVE EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST
AND NERN CONUS...WHERE BROAD UA TROUGHINESS IS LOCATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY 20-FOOT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PARTICULARY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT...BUT DRY FINE FUELS
COULD ALLOW FOR EASY FIRE IGNITION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON /15-20 MPH/...BUT 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM A
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL COUPLED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15-20
PERCENT BY PEAK HEATING...WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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