Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 031755
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL MOISTENING WAS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF
DISTURBANCES...FIRST WAVE ALREADY CHANNELING WEAKLY INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE A STRONGER WAVE WAS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AND JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONSIDERATION OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY SO ONLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE ACTUAL GROUND-ACCESSING PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE
ADDED A VCSH REMARK FOR KCDS ONLY FOR THE COMING TWO HOURS AND
WILL TAKE A FURTHER LOOK IF NECESSARY FOR EITHER KLBB AND KPVW.
LOW RISK OF A FEW OUTFLOW GUSTS THAT WE WILL ADD IF BECOME
APPARENT TO IMPACT A TAF SITE. GENERAL WEAK OUTFLOW AND COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH IN WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BUT
SHOULD BE ONLY LOW END WIND GUSTS...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE
BY EARLY EVENING WITH VFR THUS DOMINATING. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE COMING 24
HOURS BRINGING MORE DOWNWARD FORCING INFLUENCE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND MAYBE SOME SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN.
POSSIBILITY OF THE PRECIP AND THUNDER TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO TAFS
ATTM. OUTSIDE SHOT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATER TODAY...
BUT THAT TOO IS TOO LOW TO INSERT MENTION INTO TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH NOTED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH MAY BE
TRYING TO CLOSE OFF SOME...AND CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE VIGOROUS THAN
MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE ON THE SPARE SIDE WITH SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE DESPITE SW SFC FLOW...IN
GENERAL 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. RESULT IS MLCAPE OF
100-300 J/KG WITH POSSIBLY A POCKET APPROACHING 500 J/KG NEAR THE
CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
INTERACTION OF THE LOW ON THIS MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
WRF-NAM QPF STILL APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND THE GFS UNDERDONE.
HRRR...TTU-WRF...AND NSSL-WRF ALL DEPICTING SMALL-SCALE...
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z FAVORING ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA. PREVIOUS FCST WITH 30 PCT IN ROUGHLY THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE
FCST AREA AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER SAVE THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART
SEEMS IN LINE WITH TRENDS. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS HANG ON PAST 00Z IN
THE SERN CORNER AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE.
OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WEST WIND...AND DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN
THE 30S SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES ON COOL SIDE OF MOS.

LONG TERM...
LONG WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF TROUGH AXIS EXITING TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND HOLD BACK WARMER
TEMPS ONE MORE DAY BEFORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO UNDER INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGE RESULTING
FROM THE CLOSED LOW MEANDERING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACCORDING
TO THE ECMWF...WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING FOR THE WEEKEND.

ECMWF INDICATES STRONGER SE SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH A MORE
FAVORABLE GULF MOISTURE FETCH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
ON FRIDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OVERALL FOR DRYLINE POSITION AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH THE DRYLINE BEGINNING
THE DAY ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TO THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND PUSHES EAST WITH
THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN ACROSS OUR
REGION THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY. OVERALL THERE WERE FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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