Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 040603
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THRU 12Z TO REFLECT THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY FROM THE NORTH.

ALDRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  66  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         94  69  96  69 /  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  69  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       96  73  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  70  99  70 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  74 102  75 /  20   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 101  74 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  76 103  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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