Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS OF LETTING UP THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING.
SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EDGE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY
LATE THURSDAY FOR FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY.
THIS WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WITH CHILLY
READINGS TONIGHT AND ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY THURSDAY...ALSO
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT LEAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BACK IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EJECTING
TROUGH FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE IMPACT FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE
BY LATE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING SHOULD
INCREASE WITH ACTIVITY EDGING NORTH AND EVENTUALLY FAVORING WESTERN
ZONES ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE PLAUSIBLE...IN
GENERAL WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN UNTIL PERHAPS LATE
THURSDAY WESTERN AREAS. THE COLD AIR WILL PREVENT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION ALTHOUGH WE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE THURSDAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD. THIS UPPER
PATTERN COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPLETE WITH THE RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TRICK TO THE
FORECAST IS PINPOINTING WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
EXIST...WHICH WILL BE TIED NOT ONLY TO THE DIURNAL TREND IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT ALSO
ANY WEAK UPPER FORCING WITH ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE LATEST INDICATIONS IN THE NWP FAVOR ONE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT
QUICKLY FOLLOWING VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH
OF THESE TIME PERIODS MAY PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE THAT WILL TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. IN
BETWEEN...FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING A RISK OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR A LIFTING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL...DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTHWARD AND HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT HEATING/INSTABILITY IN AN
OTHERWISE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY BE SOMEWHAT MISTIMED WITH PEAK HEATING.

SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRYLINE STORMS AS THE WESTERN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT PASS UNTIL LATE
MONDAY...KEEPING STORM CHANCES FOR MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH EARLIER NWP
AND THE CURRENT GFS AND DGEX DO HAVE THE TROUGH AND BEST STORM
CHANCES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH...WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW STORM CHANCES
ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY FOLLOW TUESDAY /THOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AN INSTABILITY COULD STILL SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM/ BEFORE THINGS MAY AGAIN BECOME MORE ACTIVE
LATER NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL END TO THE WEEK /THOUGH WARMER THAT TODAY
AND THURSDAY/ HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  58  50  68 /  40  60  60  30
TULIA         48  58  52  66 /  30  50  60  50
PLAINVIEW     49  58  52  67 /  40  50  70  50
LEVELLAND     50  59  52  71 /  50  60  70  40
LUBBOCK       50  60  52  70 /  50  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   52  59  52  73 /  50  70  60  30
BROWNFIELD    51  59  52  72 /  50  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     52  64  56  69 /  20  20  60  50
SPUR          52  62  55  71 /  50  50  60  40
ASPERMONT     54  65  57  75 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/


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