Area Forecast Discussion
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627
FXUS64 KLUB 252020
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
320 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
The much anticipated cold front has now cleared the CWA with gusty
winds advecting in drier air at the low levels. Where clouds have
thinned, temperatures have risen into the upper 60s and lower 70s
across the northwestern zones. However, where clouds and light
rain persist 20Z temperatures were only in the 50s and lower 60s.
The advancing dry air will hamper rain prospects through the late
afternoon and evening hours even as broad upper level diffluence
within the deformation region of a large upper low spinning
southwestward through Sonora propels upper level moisture and lift
over the region. Expect showers to be further limited to the
Rolling Plains this evening as the dry air largely wins out. A few
showers could persist across the far southern zones into Monday as
the upper level continues to throw a little upper level moisture and
lift toward the area, though the better rain prospects will be well
to our south and southwest. Even so, we did maintain a minimal shower
mention across roughly our southern row of counties on Monday.

Outside of the decreasing rain chances, the winds will also be on
the decline this evening with a cool night to follow. Where clouds
thin the most across the southwest Texas Panhandle lows should
easily make it down into the 40s, with lower 40s not out of the
question near Friona. Lubbock may even dip into the upper 40s
depending on how far south the mid/upper clouds can clear overnight.
Elsewhere lows will be primarily in the 50s. A nice recovery into the
upper 60s and lower 70s is expected Monday afternoon, though where
clouds may hang around most/all of the day it may not make it out of
the low-mid 60s over the southwest South Plains.

.LONG TERM...
Upper level ridging will be the story this week. The pattern will
be more amplified Tuesday and Wednesday before short wave energy
causes some deamplification of the pattern. The bulk of the short
wave energy should stay to the northwest and north of the forecast
area. The possible exception could be next weekend, but the signal
is not strong enough to reintroduce a slight chance mention.
Temperatures near the model blend look fine at this time.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

23/07



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