Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 141005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
505 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Mid level Pacific moisture and low layer Gulf moisture continue to
stream across the area today keeping the area nice and juicy ahead
of an upper level trough. Upper level trough, currently situated
north of the Four Corners area, will drive a Canadian surface cold
front through the area later this evening. Convection is expected
along the Pacific front. With PWs near 1.5 inches locally heavy
rainfall could be a possibilty. With MUCAPEs near 1400 J/kg and 0-
6km shear of 30kts strong to severe storms during the late afternoon
and early evening hours can not be ruled out. Half dollar sized hail
and damaging winds of 65 mph or more will be the main threats with
these storms. Generally speaking storms will start out in the NW
corner of the CWA and translate southeastward before being over run
by the Canadian cold front.

Convection should quickly come to an end as the cold front sweeps
through the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop with
highs Sunday not expected to get out of the 60s area wide. This will
also open the door for near freezing over night temperatures Sunday
night into Monday in the northwestern South Plains and southwestern
Texas Panhandle. At this point confidence is not high enought for a
freeze advisory. Typical low lying areas could drop below freezing
due to light winds and much drier air behind the front. Will mention
highlights in the HWO. Near advisory winds behind the Canadian front
wind will also be seen area wide.

On Sunday, winds taper off as the day progresses and surface high
pressure builds in behind the cold front. By the beginning of the
next work week northwest flow aloft sets in as an upper level high
pressure system builds in over the West Coast. This will leave the
region dry. By mid-week next week, more zonal flow sets up ahead of
a negatively tilted trough that passes through the area Thursday. By
the end of the week, a more significant Pacific trough develops off
the west coast and could be our next money maker.




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