Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
657 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

New convective activity overnight will impact all three terminals
near and shortly after daybreak this morning. Indicating all-out
or tempo TSRA at all locations. Perhaps briefly MVFR cloud deck
amidst the heaviest activity, otherwise expect VFR to dominate.
Showers should clear out by mid morning. More storms seem possible
later today, but not shown within this set of forecasts. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

Convective activity proved to be more resilient than expected
early this morning with scattered thunderstorms ongoing and
redevelopment westward into eastern New Mexico.

For this afternoon, more widespread activity is anticipated as a
short wave currently seen in water vapor imagery over northern
Mexico will move overhead. This short wave will be associated with
a jet streak coming out of New Mexico as upper level atmospheric
flow begins to back. This backing is in response to a long wave
trough moving into the western CONUS. Storms this afternoon are
expected to initially form in eastern New Mexico and earlier in
the day than seen in the past few days. The initial storms will
form in eastern New Mexico closer to a surface trough. However,
some development could form in West Texas with residual surface
boundaries from early morning convection. Strong low level moisture
still in place will lead to mixed layer instability values on the
order of 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will be fairly unchanged
with fairly weak flow. Therefore, little organization is expected
but very strong instability will lead to possible severe storms.
Furthermore, extremely high precipitable water values will lead to
heavy rain and possible localized flooding.

Precipitation chances from Wednesday and beyond remain unclear.
Precipitation chances on Wednesday do look better than before with
a cold front sliding somewhere into the region. Although it is
uncertain where this front will end up, convection chances do look
promising along and ahead of the front, which will most likely be
over the Rolling Plains. The upper level ridge over the
southeastern US will be the source of uncertainty in convection
chances for the rest of the week. This ridge will begin to move
west resulting in rising heights which will act to suppress
convective development. But given the strong low level moisture
and instability in place, isolated to widely scattered storms will
be possible just about any afternoon.




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