Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 182317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

VFR and dry still through the period. Generally light surface
winds early as a weak surface ridge is replaced by a weak trough
overnight and early Wednesday. Late in the day Wednesday a cold
front will advance southward from the Texas Panhandle. Fairly
significant timing differences among the solutions at this time,
and we are siding a bit with faster arrival. Likely additional
adjustments to FROPA time over the next few TAF packages as well.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/

Upper level trough will pass to our north on Wednesday as flow in
West Texas remains more or less zonally oriented. This will drive
a respectable frontal boundary through the area and lower
temperatures much closer to seasonal norms. Forcing along the
front should be sufficient (along with available moisture) to fire
thunderstorm activity to our southeast. The confidence in storms
affecting our CWFA however are quite slim--though not zero.
Eastern portions of King and Stonewall county have the best shot
at seeing some rain albeit only a 5 to 10 pct chance. Otherwise,
breezy northerlies are expected into Wednesday evening`s post-
frontal airmass.

Brief chances for precipitation will still be possible across the
southern Rolling Plains for Wednesday evening. Low level theta-e
will continue to be relatively high for this area leading up to
and through the evening until the cold front plows through.
Similar to what the previous shift mentioned, there is a narrow
window for convection until much drier air comes sweeping in
behind the frontal passage. Strong pressure rises Wednesday night
through Thursday morning will keep winds up. This may prevent
temperatures from bottoming out too much despite the cold air
advection behind the front. More widespread cooler temperatures
will come Friday morning when the surface ridge briefly settles
nearby. Areas across the southwestern Texas Panhandle may see a
light freeze either Thursday or Friday morning.

Cooler temperatures will not last long though. Temperatures will
quickly boost back up above seasonal averages with surface
troughing west of the region and building heights overhead this
weekend into early next week. Low level moisture will return next
week but models offer stark differences in how this moisture will
be involved with the resulting weather.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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