Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BUT MAY YET STICK AROUND ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. STILL
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION BEHIND DRIVEN
EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. CURRENT FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL THUS
ADDRESS THAT SCENARIO WITH THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AT KLBB TO TAPER OFF AND NOT REALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES
EARLY THIS AFTN WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS NEAR THE NM LINE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WEST TO ERN NM WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF KLBB. KCDS WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING A TS TOWARD 06Z AND WILL KEEP PROB30
MENTION THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  80  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  70  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  80  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  69  93  62  79 /  80  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  50  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  50  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  30  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




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