Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 182331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AT KLBB. CEILING
SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




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