Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 040910
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE TRANSLATED
TO ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SWWRD WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS
INDICATIVE BY TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED ONE-HOURLY RAIN RATES FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCH UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIEST CORES EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREQUENCY OF
LIGHTNING DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN STRENGTH
VIA RADAR ANALYSIS HAVE SINCE CAUSED THE RAINFALL RATES TO DECLINE.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE
WHILST PROPAGATING TO ACROSS ERN NM BY AOA 10Z.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THUS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE STORMS BEING MAINTAINED MORE SO
ACROSS CNTRL NM NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS
OF A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK COUPLED WITH A DECENT 250 MB JET STREAK /50 KTS OR
SO/ WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
KJ/KG ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
/POSSIBLY NEARING STRONG LEVELS/ THAT COULD TRY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. SRLY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /15 KTS OR SO/ COURTESY OF THE
NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALL IN ALL...THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE COMPRISED OF LOW /ALBEIT NON-
ZERO/ RAIN CHANCES...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEASONAL WARMTH EXPECTED /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. TONIGHT...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR...AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TO OBSERVE FIREWORKS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING A BIT MIXED SUNDAY NIGHT AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS
TO SPREAD IN. BY MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH BY THEN ALIGNS WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
FROM ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS. MORE SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES FACTOR IN EARLY TUESDAY AS WRF/NAM REMAINS SHARPEST
IF NOT EVEN CLOSED OFF AT H500 MB AND THUS ALSO WETTEST. BUT HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR VALID. UPPER
TROUGH WILL STEER OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THOUGH WE MAY SEE ANOTHER RIPPLE
OR TWO WITH ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER. BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ON A SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORMS EXCEPT NEAR THE
MONSOON FLOW WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL MOSTLY VALID THEREFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER MID WEEK AND WARMER AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  65  91  67 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         89  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     88  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     89  67  92  71 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       89  68  92  71 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   88  66  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    89  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     93  72  95  74 /  20  10   0  20
SPUR          91  70  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05


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