Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 190526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR with light winds through 06Z TAF cycle. JW


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

VFR with light winds. Stable air aloft will keep TS chances very
low through Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

Upper level trough axis seen on current water vapor image is
essentially centered north to south down our longitude. This has
resulted in best lift and instability shifting to the east into
North Texas. Some scattered convection toward the I20 corridor has
initiated in monsoon moisture shunted south by early morning outflow
from MCS in western Oklahoma, while an upper level low squeezes
moisture northward out of Big Bend and Central Texas. Showers and
thunderstorms should remain south of our area through the rest of
the afternoon and evening. Though there is still a slight chance of
some convection moving off the higher terrain of New Mexico later
tonight int the early morning hours, but should remain in vicinity
of the state line.

As the upper level low currently to our south shifts west and
southward, we`ll see high pressure build in farther westward which
will keep us mostly dry through the weekend. More nocturnal
thunderstorm activity late Sunday may work far enough eastward into
our western counties, again closest to the state line.

Otherwise surface moisture will remain mostly in the 60s in terms of
dewpoints throughout the forecast period helping keeping daytime
highs at or slightly below seasonally normal levels. The next big
change in the pattern appears to occur sometime next Tuesday when a
cold front pushes through the Texas Panhandle into our area and
seems to linger for multiple days as persistent troughing occurs
over the east. Both the GFS and ECMWF show consensus in the
potential for multiple days at chances for showers and storms
through the middle of next week across our region.




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