


Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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769 FXUS64 KLUB 101124 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Dry weather is expected through most of today before showers and storms move onto the Caprock this evening. - Daily chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Friday through early next week, heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. - Hot to end the week with cooler conditions expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A generally drier airmass is in place over the region compared to this time yesterday as a result of a slight eastward expansion of the upper ridge axis centered over the desert southwest. This evolution comes as a mid/upper level shortwave trough moved over NorCal this morning, with this shortwave set to continue moving fairly quickly eastward over NV/UT/CO over the next 24 hours. The relatively dry airmass currently overhead will consequently remain in place as upper ridging remains fairly flat, and diurnal thunderstorms look quite unlikely today as a result. Temperatures will again be on the warm side with highs in the mid to upper 90s, and southwest winds are also set to become a bit breezy this afternoon in response to the deepening of a broad surface trough over eastern CO/NM ahead of the aforementioned upper shortwave. By early evening as the upper shortwave continues to advance eastward, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop over SE CO and NE NM within the above mentioned surface trough, and then track southeastward through the evening hours. Most models are in good agreement that this activity should reach the SW TX Panhandle by about 6-8 PM, with less agreement on how much farther south and east it progresses after that. Currently it appears that the environment will quickly become unfavorable for continued convective maintenance after the loss of daytime heating, so we expect this shower and storm activity to fade in coverage after sunset with mentionable PoPs focused mainly to the west of I- 27. Widespread severe weather looks unlikely, but a few gusts to 60 mph will be possible during the evening given the high-based nature of the storms. There is also a nonzero chance of some nocturnal storm development later tonight as the outflow from the evening activity drifts eastward, but this currently looks like it will remain quite isolated if it does indeed develop. Otherwise, another mild overnight is expected with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 The extended forecast remains on track this evening, with ensemble guidance continuing to hint at our next best chance for beneficial rainfall this weekend, as the upper level high over the Desert Southwest flattens while departing to the west and an upper level shortwave trough digs through the Central Plains. As a result northerly flow aloft will make a subtle shift out of the northwest through the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, drier southwest winds are expected to back out of the southeast as a surface low develops across eastern New Mexico and the surface high remains parked off to the east of the FA. As we see the return of moisture transport with these winds, hot and muggy conditions will likely return on Friday with dewpoints in the 60s, while thickness values, mostly clear skies, and the southerly component to the wind, aiding in temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. There remains a chance for diurnally driven convection, with the best shot looking to be for the far southwestern and central Texas Panhandle, along with portions of the northern South Plains, as thunderstorms likely develop across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico and tracks into the area. However, models are not too in support of thunderstorms making it into our area given weak steering flow aloft. If thunderstorms make it into our area, there is a chance that some become sub-severe to severe, with forecast soundings depicting a well mixed boundary layer profile, low-level lapse rates around 8C/km, and DCAPE values up to 1700 J/kg, all suggesting strong wind gusts to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Heading into the weekend, chances for precipitation increase while we see cooler temperatures across much of the region as a series of shortwave troughs dive through portions of the Central and Southern Plains. As a result of the upper level pattern, a plume of monsoonal moisture looks to clip portions of the region, with a notable axis of subtropical moisture from 300mb to 700mb. Given this increased amount of moisture from the surface to mid-levels, along with perturbations associated with the shortwave troughs moving into the region, we can expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the forecast area Saturday through early next week. Saturday evening looks to be the best chance for precipitation, with likely (>50%) PoPs in place for areas across the Caprock, as we see the best forcing with the base of the trough just north of the area. Forecast soundings across the region during this time frame depict long-skinny CAPE profiles with a well saturated column of moisture through the surface to mid-levels. Additionally, PWATs are progged to be well above the 90th percentile seasonal normals (1.30") with soundings suggesting PWATs ranging from 1.25" up to 1.75" across much of the area. This leads to a cause of concern for heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially with any stronger storm core that develops given the potential for slow storm motions. Heights will decrease as the upper level ridge departs west which in combination with the increased amounts of moisture, cloud cover anticipation, and southeasterly winds will result in slightly cooler temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs ranging in the 80s and 90s. Daily chances for precipitation will continue each afternoon from Monday through mid-week week as perturbations continue to track through the region, despite the upper level ridge expanding slightly westward. Since this remains Day 6 and beyond, will opt to maintain NBM mentionable PoPs due to the forecast uncertainty with it being so far out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR. Light W-SW winds this morning will back southerly by midday and increase to 12-15 knots and remain steady overnight. These breezier winds tonight should limit LLWS concerns from a 35 knot LLJ. Will have to watch for a broken line of TS moving SE from the western TX Panhandle this evening - some of which could threaten PVW toward midnight. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...93