Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 211024
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY THUNDER THAT DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...WELL WEST OF
EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES TODAY UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRY TO INITIATE WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ALTHOUGH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK AXIS OF HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES WILL BE WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE THETA-E
VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS POTENT THAN OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL STILL GENERATE ROBUST SURFACE INSTABILITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST NO FLOW
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE A ROGUE WIND GUST GIVEN NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. MUCH DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL WEST OF
THE REGION IN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EXPANDING JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A
WAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MINOR
IMPACT THIS FAR WEST BENEATH THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE...WITH AT MOST A
MINOR LIGHT WIND SHIFT PERHAPS SETTLING SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY
MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND ELONGATE AS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM ROTATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHOVE A MORE VALID WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES INTO
CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS PATTERN. SO...MIGHT EXPECT THIS WOULD PRODUCE
VALID COOLING AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHOWER PROSPECTS
DAYS 8 AND BEYOND. UNTIL THEN...BULK OF EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARDS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SMALL CHANCE
THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY EARLY TO MID WEEK
AT LEAST...THOUGH SOLUTIONS AGREE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL IMPROVE
EASTERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH COULD THEN
TRANSLATE INTO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  69  98  68  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  70  99  69  99 /  10  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  71  98  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     98  72 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       98  73  99  72  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   98  73  99  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    98  73 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  72 103  74 103 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          98  74 101  72 102 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  75 102  77 103 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99





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