000
FXUS64 KLUB 082333 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT NEAR A WEAKENING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BEHIND A
DEPARTING WAVE RIPPLING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS OFFERS CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT MAY YET BE CAPABLE OF STEERING A STORM OR TWO A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. BUT WITH WEAKENING FORCING AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WE BELIEVE STORM CHANCES WILL OTHERWISE
REMAIN MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
MILDER WITH ADDED MOISTURE...WHILE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ALSO IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BENEATH THE BUILDING HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT. SURFACE
WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT AND JUST A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WEDNESDAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST LATER THIS WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH THAT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. REASONABLE MOISTURE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS DEPICTED BY PWATS AROUND 1 INCH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VISITING US IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL HAVE MIXED BACK NORTH BY EARLY EVENING WED WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING FOR STORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DO MANAGE TO OCCUR FURTHER TO THE NORTH MAY DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 10 PERCENT. BEYOND THIS SLIM AND FLEETING RAIN CHANCE
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION HEAD CLOSER TO ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO STEADILY RISE OVER
THE WEAKEND AS THICKNESS CLIMB IN RESPONSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTER BEING CLOSER. SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
SPOILING AN OTHERWISE SUNNY FORECAST THROUGH THU AS STORMS REMAIN
ACTIVE WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE EXPECT CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE THU AND FRI AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS WILL THE
WINDS HELPING TO ADD TO THE FEELING OF MORE SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  64  91  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  91  66  92  65 /  20  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  91  66  92  65 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  92  66  92  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       69  93  68  93  67 /  10  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  92  64  92  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  93  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  96  72  98  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  97  73  98  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$