Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270950
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST
INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. BUT NET
RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM FOUR NEARBY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING
MIGHT REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHICH RESIDES MOST DIRECTLY IN-BETWEEN THE FOUR. MOISTURE LEVELS
ALSO WILL IMPROVE ALL AREAS...INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ESPECIALLY ROLLING PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY ROLLING PLAINS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON
THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...NET WESTWARD
MOTION OF OUTFLOWS TOWARDS THE IMPROVING DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
SUPPORT FAVORED ZONE CENTRAL INTO EAST...THOUGH NET INTERPLAY OF
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS NOT SO CLEAR OR SIMPLE. RECENT TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNAL MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH
INSTABILITY SEEM REASONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ONE SOLUTION VS
ANOTHER JUST NOT THERE TO ANGLE BEST AREA AND PERHAPS MOST RAINFALL
TOO MUCH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE COME DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL EXIST...A SURFACE LOW WELL BACK INTO NEW MEXICO MAY KEEP IT
WEST OF THE STATE BORDER. NONETHELESS...SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUS
WILL BE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. ROUGHLY 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING WHAT MATERIALIZES TONIGHT
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AFTERNOON RECOVERY BEGINNING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE IN NWP SOLUTIONS WITH CAPES
RAMPING UP INTO THE 3-4 KJ/KG RANGE. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS INTACT
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING THESE EAST INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MAKE
BETTER REFINEMENT AS TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERE...ONCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BECOME CLEARER. IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER FORCING AND ALONG A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND AN
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SHUT THINGS DOWN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD
BET FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
A PERIOD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO DRY THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OUT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THIS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY HALT TO STORM
CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTION OF EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND RENEWED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEXT
PLAYER IN APPRECIABLE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  58  79  54 /  10  40  60  30
TULIA         85  60  78  58 /  20  50  60  40
PLAINVIEW     85  62  78  60 /  20  50  60  40
LEVELLAND     87  63  79  60 /  10  40  60  40
LUBBOCK       87  63  79  61 /  20  50  60  50
DENVER CITY   88  65  80  61 /  10  40  60  40
BROWNFIELD    88  64  81  60 /  10  40  60  40
CHILDRESS     87  64  80  62 /  30  50  60  50
SPUR          87  62  79  62 /  30  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     90  66  81  64 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31


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