Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 192109
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
409 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Isolated thunderstorms were added to the forecast for the
southwestern South Plains for the rest of the afternoon into the
early evening. Isolated storms have developed within a narrow
moisture plume seen on mid/upper water vapor imagery. Surface dew
point in the mid 50s with temperatures in the lower 90s have been
able to provide mixed layer instability values around 1000 J/kg
within this moisture plume. Although most of this activity will
likely be concentrated in southeast New Mexico and the northwest
Permian Basin, some isolated storms may stray into the
southwestern South Plains before dissipating.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
No surprises with the 12Z model suite with good consistency
yielding little need for significant changes. Upper level high
pressure remains over Kansas and Oklahoma extending westward
through the desert Southwest with monsoonal moisture shunted
westward to Utah and Arizona. A weakness on the southwest edge of
the high is allowing for some shower development on the mountains
of West Texas, but this activity should stay well away from the
forecast area. As a result the forecast area is expected to remain
quiet weatherwise with little in the way of rain chance and near
to slightly above normal temperatures through Friday. A weakness
in the ridge is progged to develop across eastern New Mexico and
the western South Plains/Panhandle this weekend. Rain chances are
looking a bit slimmer for Saturday, but by Sunday amplification
of the western end of the ridge northward toward the Great Basin
may allow for more of a northwest flow pattern developing which
would favor the northwestern half to two-thirds of the forecast
area for thunderstorms. By Wednesday the weakness bisecting the
subtropical ridge dissipates with the ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern tier of the CONUS once again shutting off
rain chances.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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