Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 052045
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES CONVECTION
SCATTERED FROM RATON NM TO WEST OF FORT SUMNER TO NEAR FORT STOCKTON
TX. ACTIVITY ACROSS SE NM INTO W TX IS PROGRESSING NE IN LINE WITH
850-300MB MEAN WIND BUT AT A FASTER PACE THANKS TO OUTFLOW. LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS BRING THE STORMS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT NO FURTHER. HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF FIRST PERIOD GIVEN
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY DUE TO MOISTURE MIXING
OUT ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL PLUME EXTENDING FROM OLD MEXICO
THROUGH CENTRAL NM. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS COURTESY OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF. WITH NO APPRECIABLE VEERING
OVERNIGHT AND 35-40 LLJ THIS MOISTURE ONLY LOOKS TO BE SUSTAINED SO
EXPECT AN EXPANDING LAYER OF STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND PLAY INTO A WARM START TO THE
DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS WITH FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MON AFTERNOON AND PROSPECTS FOR PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY 00Z TUE WITH
COVERAGE STARTING TO INCREASE FROM THE NM BORDER EASTWARD BY THEN AS
WELL. EXPECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT OUR DOORSTEP TODAY TO BE PUSHED
EAST ON MON AS MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. MID LEVEL ENERGY IN QUESTION LOOKS TO BE ORIGINATING IN
MONSOON FLOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM AND WILL PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM EARLY IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS ARE VEERED IN
THE MORNING THEY SHOULD BACK IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING ENERGY AND
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAP GENERATE SCT STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN WEAK DURING
THIS TIME AND SBCAPE VALUES MAY BE STUNTED A BIT BY EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS SO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW BUT HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
MOUNTING WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. HAVE BROUGHT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...
CONCERN IN EARLY PART OF EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE FRONT CONSPIRE TO
GENERATE FRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN 24-36 HOUR RAIN EPISODE PAST FEW
RUNS. GIVEN NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND SLOWING DOWN OF
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY. HIGH PWAT VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE AND MAY WRAP INTO SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVIEST. 2 DAY TOTALS IN
THE 2-3" RANGE CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE. A LITTLE EARLY FOR FLOOD
WATCH BUT THAT MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IT DOES SEEM APPARENT THAT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RESUMES IN LESS FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. LIKELY TO STILL SEE SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE BENDING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES/SW PANHANDLE
LATE THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT MAY
ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER. UPPER RIDGE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH WARMING AND
DRYING TREND ANTICIPATED WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS. AFTER COOL DAY
WITH RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...EXPECT TO BE WELL
INTO THE 90S BY UPCOMING WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  88  63  75 /  10  50  80  50
TULIA         68  88  65  73 /  10  50  80  60
PLAINVIEW     69  90  66  73 /  10  50  80  70
LEVELLAND     69  90  66  76 /  10  40  80  60
LUBBOCK       71  92  67  76 /  10  30  80  70
DENVER CITY   67  91  67  79 /  10  40  70  50
BROWNFIELD    69  90  67  79 /  10  30  70  60
CHILDRESS     73  94  70  77 /  10  40  80  70
SPUR          69  91  69  80 /  10  20  60  80
ASPERMONT     72  93  72  83 /  10  10  50  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



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