Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292048
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14



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