Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 022323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATE TO WIDELY
SCATTERED -TSRA IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES CRATER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ONCE AGAIN.  AFTER THE COOL START TO THE
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AS SURFACE WIND RETURNS BACK TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.  MODELS ARE STILL WANTING TO SWING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SLIDING
IT SOUTHEAST.  WITH SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTH FAIRLY LATE
IN THE MORNING...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE.  ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MICROBURST DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.  MOST FAVORED
AREA IS THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE LIFT IS THE
STRONGEST FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED...
HOWEVER AT BEST COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BARELY BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH IN NW FLOW AND
DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL IN ADVANCE OF
HEIGHT RISES ACCOMPANYING A LONGWAVE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
SLIDE EAST AND SIT DIRECTLY ATOP THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW. ONLY A MODIFIED
FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN THU AND FRI...SO PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK VERY POOR AND NOT WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE GRIDS. A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN PWATS BY THIS WEEKEND AND SUBSEQUENT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE CWA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 20-40 POPS UNDERNEATH STRONGER
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...HOWEVER A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN THE
FOUR CORNERS IS FAVORED TO MOBILIZE AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND
PASS TO OUR NORTH BY SUN NIGHT. THIS EASTERLY SHIFT WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE DRYLINE OFF THE CAPROCK COME SUN AFTN AHEAD OF WHAT
COULD BE SOME STOUT SWLY WINDS IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. MUCH OF THIS
EASTWARD KICK OF THE LOW HINGES ON PHASING DETAILS WITH A
NORTHERLY STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...SO SOME
CHANGES TO THIS THEME COULD EASILY EMERGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
ASIDE FROM DROPPING LOW TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WED MORNING ON THE
CAPROCK...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED TEMPS WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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