Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 272041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS ACROSS THE REGION HAS
STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS AND IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WATER VAPOR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WAS
STARTING TO PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN FAIRLY DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AS SHOWN IN
THE HRRR...RAP...AND TTU-WRF WHICH HAS ALSO HELPED TO GET THE
ATMOSPHERE INTO A CONVECTIVE STATE ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE.  DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET OUT
WEST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT DRY AND MIXED SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS ANY STORMS WILL
BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED IN TIME AND COVER A SMALL AREA.  THE UPSIDE IS
THAT SOME LOCATIONS UNDERNEATH THE SHOWERS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

AFTER ANOTHER MILD START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY EVEN AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES TO
NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WE ALSO SHOULD SEE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CLOSE TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
THIS MEANS THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE BORDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
VARY A BIT MORE TOMORROW IN WHERE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
COMPARED TO WHAT THEY SHOWED FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
RELATIVELY DECENT CONSENSUS IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY
CONFINING BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH HAS BEEN A PRETTY CONSISTENT
UPSLOPE FEATURE RECENTLY WITH CENTER OF RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR
EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY AT TIMES WITH
REGARD TO FORCING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION.

THURSDAY ECMWF/SREF GUIDANCE POSITIONS A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH EXTENDING FROM A COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF STATES TO A SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE NAM/GFS INDICATE SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ANY HINTS OF A BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
DIFFICULT TO SEE PLAUSIBILITY IN ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS GIVEN LACK OF
CONTINUITY IN BOUNDARY DEPICTION AS IT EXTENDS FROM GULF STATES THUS
CONTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NW ZONES IN WEAK SE UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW. BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS EXPANDING BACK TOWARD
NORTHWEST DETAILS GET EVEN MURKIER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK
FORCING PROVIDING LOW CONFIDENCE SIGNALS OF CONVECTION ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WHERE THERE WERE
ANY HIGHER POPS MENTIONED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...AS
FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY WAS RUNNING A TAD
ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH TODAYS 12Z RUN INCHING BACK MORE
TOWARD GUIDANCE BUT DID KNOCK DOWN 1 OR 2 DEGREES ON DAYS WHEN
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...FOR WHATS ITS WORTH MODELS
CONVERGE BACK TO DECENT CONSENSUS A WEEK FROM NOW WITH RIDGE CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER WEST TEXAS YET AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  95  67  85 /  20  10  40  30
TULIA         69  97  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     69  96  69  88 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     70  96  70  90 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  72  90 /  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   70  94  70  90 /  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  97  72  91 /  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     75 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  10
SPUR          73  99  75  95 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     76 100  77  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55



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