Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 211110
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Upper level ridge over Texas will weaken over the next 24 hours
while the next storm system comes ashore the Pacific Northwest.
Expansive cirrus is noted on IR imagery ahead of a disturbance
pushing through SRN AZ and NRN Sonora.  While models have a hard
time defining the latter system, WV imagery is much more clear as to
its progression.  What is showing up in NWP is the expectation of
the MX/AZ system to weaken.  This is most notably indicated in the Q
Vector field.  The best moisture should remain both west (across E
NM) and east (SE TX) of us today and no significant indications
point toward rain chances though a cloudier sky is anticipated than
we saw yesterday.  With the approaching dying low...the lee trough
will tighten just a bit providing us with afternoon winds in the 10-
15 mph range.  Thanks to the cirrus, we should be a couple degrees
cooler than yesterday as well.

LONG TERM...
We will continue to be warm going into the weekend as surface flow
continues to be out of the south to southeast ahead of a cold front
over the Central Plains. The front will be pulled northward as a
deep upper level low pushes eastward across the Rockies. The main
core of the low is progged to push northward into Canada by early
Sunday while the associated trof amplifies. The first indication of
convection will be early Sat along a surface boundary/Pacific front
across our northwestern zones. Forcing during this period appears to
be weak during this time and moisture availability in this region
could be better. For now just a mention of slight chance PoPs will
be kept across our northwestern zones. Better rain chances will come
later Sat afternoon across the Rolling Plains as the Pacific front
pushes eastward and upper level lift becomes more readily available.
Any storms that develop have the potential to produce heavy rain as
PWATS will be over 1.5 inches. The main cold front is progged to
push through our northwestern zones Sun morning and should be
through the FA by the afternoon, and this front looks to be our
first strong one of the season. MOS guidance is showing winds to be
fairly strong behind the cold front, 25-35 mph. The surface gradient
does appear to be tight as the front pushes through given the much
cooler air that will be following. For now winds will be kept
around the 25 mph range as models are still trying to come to a
forecast consensus, but wind speeds may need to be adjusted
higher over the next few shifts.

Next week will start off with below average temps across the FA.
Mon looks to be the coolest day as highs will range from the mid
60s to mid 70s while lows Tues will range from the low 40s to mid
50s. Temps will gradually warm into the mid 70s/low 80s Tues and
Wed as the upper low moves off to our northeast and upper level
ridging starts to push in from the west.

Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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