Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 051736
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE IS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
TOWARD SUNRISE MON. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S EVIDENT THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TX. CONTINUED
SRLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE VEERING EXPECTED SHOULD
YIELD ADVANCING STRATOCU DECK. LATEST GRIDDED DATA ALSO SUGGESTS
NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE ASCENT IN WEAK WAA SPREADING ACROSS KLBB
TERMINAL BY 15Z. HAVE INCLUDED A MVFR CIG FOR MOST SOUTHERN TAF
SITE AS A RESULT. LOW LEVEL JET 30-40KT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED
PREVENTING ANY VSBY CONCERNS. ANY CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CONTINUED TO SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE CENTER WAS NOTED ACROSS SERN NM/NERN OLD
MEXICO. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED WHICH IS ALSO AIDING IN
SPILLING IN BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING.  DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE SAID UA RIDGE...AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUED /COURTESY OF AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME/ WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S PER 09Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM
AND GFS HINT AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE SRN ZONES AOA DAYBREAK.
PER 09Z METARS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT AND SOUTH OF
OZONA TX WHICH MAY IN FACT BE THE STRATUS DECK THAT COULD NEAR/MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THESE CLOUDS WILL EVOLVE AS IT HAS A WAYS TO GO TO REACH THE CWA.

THIS AFTN...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY A BIT THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING ESE FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION /THOUGH A
STRAY STORM APPROACHING THE WRN ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION/
AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
BEING MOSTLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. DEEPENING SFC TROUGH
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT...LEADING TO MODEST SRLY BREEZES DURING THE AFTN HOURS /15-
20 MPH/. MOS GUIDANCE EXHIBITING WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE BL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DE-COUPLING.
ONCE AGAIN...THE NAM SOLUTION SHOW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AND PERHAPS MAKE A RUN FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AOA 06/10Z.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
EXPECTED. THIS QUIET WX PATTERN MAY SOON BECOME DISRUPTED. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.

$$

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS CONTINUE TO MOUNT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ROUNDING THE UPPER
RIDGE DIP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S LATE MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES. DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR
MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY APPEAR LIKELY
GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT AND NORTHWEST HIGH
LEVEL FLOW. SOME SUSPICIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LASTING SLOW
MOVING MCS THAT COULD BECOME A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER. EXACTLY
WHERE THIS MIGHT FORM BY EARLY TUESDAY IS NOT CLEAR AS SOLUTIONS
ARE RELOCATING DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION EAST AND THEN WEST WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT STUDYING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL WILL BE ON OUR AGENDA FOR UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
ALSO STILL APPEARS TO BE CHANCE FOR STRONG OR LOCALLY SEVERE
EVENTS OF HAIL OR HIGH WIND ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY. INSTABILITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE AS PRECIPITATION COOLED AIR SPREADS OUTWARDS
ALTHOUGH AS NOTED ABOVE SYSTEM MAY INCREASE SPIN AND THUS BE
CAPABLE OF TAPPING ITS OWN INSTABILITY.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BETTER PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
WILL SHIFT MORE INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES...SOME POTENTIAL IT COULD
CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...BUT DEEP MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN AND WE
WILL RETAIN MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY
OR SO AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN SLOWLY TO REBUILD IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LOW EDGING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SHIFT
MONSOONAL FLOW NORTH LIKELY BRUSHING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHERE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN. HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND TO CLEAR
PRECIPITATION TOTALLY...ALTHOUGH SOLUTION SPREAD INCREASES AS THE
GFS ATTEMPTS TO ROLL OUT THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
ROCKIES VS THE ECMWF REDEVELOPMENT OF SUMMER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
SO...STILL ISSUES TO DETERMINE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WE
WILL HOLD ON TO WARMER AND DRIER FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  86  63  77 /  10  50  70  40
TULIA         68  88  65  75 /  10  50  70  50
PLAINVIEW     68  89  66  75 /  10  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     68  91  66  78 /  10  30  70  50
LUBBOCK       68  91  67  77 /  10  30  70  60
DENVER CITY   68  91  67  80 /  10  30  60  50
BROWNFIELD    68  90  67  79 /  10  30  60  60
CHILDRESS     73  94  70  78 /  10  20  80  60
SPUR          71  91  69  79 /  10  20  60  70
ASPERMONT     73  94  71  83 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/



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