Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 142334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL WITH
SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY COME INTO
PLAY LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AT KCDS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




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