Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
535 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

VFR. A northerly wind shift toward midday at all terminals will
precede 15 to 20 knot winds for much of the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

Forecasted shield of rainfall developed late last night and
continues to push east of the area early this morning. There could
still be a few showers before sunrise but expect the heaviest
precipitation to be well south and east of the forecast area. A
band of beneficial rains fell from roughly from Amherst to
Silverton where amounts were between three quarters to just under
one inch. Amounts tapered off either side of that line to just
under two tenths of an inch in Lubbock to only one hundredth
across much of the southern Rolling Plains. The streaks at Lubbock
International Airport for measurable precipitation (0.01) and one
tenth of an inch are now stopped and the counters reset for both

Behind the departing precipitation, a weak front will push in from
the northeast through the day but will bring little in the way of
cooling. Highs will still be in the mid to upper 60s across the
area and we will also keep residual low-level moisture across the
area. A low-level jet will develop tonight into Sunday helping to
pull low to mid 50 dewpoints across much of the forecast area in
the morning. There could be some light drizzle or showers across
the far southeastern Rolling Plains but chances are looking pretty
slim at this point. A diffuse dryline will develop through the day
across the western South Plains through the day as a weak lee
surface trough develops near the TX/NM state line. This feature
will not move much through the day so Sunday may feel like a more
traditional spring day across the area with the moisture in place
and temps in the low 70s.

That will change on Monday as a strong shortwave crosses the area
ahead of a deepening longwave trough across the western U.S. A
tightening pressure gradient through the day as heights fall ahead
of the approaching trough will result in southwest winds of 20 to
30 mph across the caprock. This will rapidly mix the dryline to
the east through the morning and a southwest to westerly component
will also result in downslope warming bumping highs into the low
80s across the Rolling Plains dropping to the upper 60s near the
TX/NM state line. Minimum RH values will fall to around 20 percent
so we aren`t expecting critical fire weather conditions but the
fire danger will be elevated through the day Monday.

Moisture will have a tough time returning to the area ahead of the
next cold front to push through late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning as the West Coast trough pushes into the Central and
Northern Plains. Models have come into somewhat better agreement
on the timing of the front with it pushing into the northern
Rolling Plains late in the day Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF
push the front through after sunset so that temperatures on
Wednesday will fall into the mid to upper 40s for highs; a bit
under what the model blends had for highs. The front will rapidly
mix out with return flow becoming reestablished by Friday with
low-level moisture working into the area again. By next weekend,
the dryline should become reestablished somewhere across the area
as we maintain cyclonic flow aloft. Temperatures will slowly
climb to above normal for next weekend as well. Will have to wait
and see if we can get any thunderstorm development near the
dryline Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF is rather bullish on precip
chances for the end of next week while the GFS keeps us dry.





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