Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 211034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
434 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH WAS FOUND PUSHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AT 09Z AHEAD OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. EAST OF THIS TROUGH
IS WHERE STRATUS HAS BEEN ANCHORED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER UNLIKE RECENT DAYS WE EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM W-E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOTORS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOG-WISE...AREA
CAMERAS AND METARS AT 09Z SHOW THE LOWEST VISBYS OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SEMINOLE TO LUBBOCK TO
LAMESA. HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
BUT ITS VISBYS REMAIN TOO PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO GROUND TRUTH AND
THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ANY NEED FOR
A HEADLINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS...
BUT EVEN THIS WINDOW IS SHRINKING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
EDGING CLOSER WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP RID ANY
LINGERING STRATUS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDDAY WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO BOOST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO NEARLY 561 DAM. OPTED
FOR THE BCCONSALL WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS REMAINING GUIDANCE
LOOKED TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN OF DEEP WLY FLOW AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THESE MILD THICKNESS VALUES FALL VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT THANKS TO AN IMPRESSIVE LL THERMAL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH
AHEAD OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT...SO MIN TEMPS WERE BOOSTED 2 TO 5
DEGREES. THESE SEEMINGLY MILD LOW TEMPS MAY STILL PROVE TOO COOL
GIVEN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST ONE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL LOCATION IS WAFFLING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE TIME OF THE RUN. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WIND WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH THIS WILL SET UP ABOUT A 10-14 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 140-160KT JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS THE TROF AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE REGION. A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AT
THE SAME TIME THE TROF IS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING SATURATION. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN
SO THAT WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUCH STRONG LIFT AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 06Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START
A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW LINE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A LUBBOCK TO DENVER CITY LINE LEAVING
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS ALL RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BUMP UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY FAST END BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE PRETTY COLD WITH SOME MID 20 F READINGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
LEE SURFACE TROF HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE BREEZY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP WIND SPEEDS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS WAS BELIEVED 2-3 DAYS AGO. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION
MAKING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL CHRISTMAS. HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
KIND OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.

AFTER CHRISTMAS AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT OF A WARMUP WILL ENSUE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  34  56  25  41 /   0   0   0  50   0
TULIA         58  35  56  28  42 /   0   0   0  50   0
PLAINVIEW     59  36  58  29  42 /   0   0   0  50  10
LEVELLAND     63  37  63  30  44 /   0   0   0  50  10
LUBBOCK       63  38  61  31  44 /   0   0   0  50  10
DENVER CITY   62  39  68  32  46 /   0   0   0  50  10
BROWNFIELD    62  38  67  32  45 /   0   0   0  50  10
CHILDRESS     61  37  59  35  48 /   0   0   0  30  10
SPUR          63  39  63  36  48 /   0   0   0  40  10
ASPERMONT     64  42  67  38  51 /   0   0   0  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.