Area Forecast Discussion
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605
FXUS64 KLUB 250816
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
316 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The record for this date in Lubbock is 102 set in 2012...for
Childress it`s 105 set back in 1990. If the ridge just to the west
were able to build slightly stronger, we would most likely shatter
those today. However, RAP analysis shows the ridge to be flattening
a bit this morning. Still, ridging will move over the region today
bringing exceptionally warm temperatures to the forecast area.
850mb temps will warm into the 30C range, which only reinforces
the warmth. As the ridge moves east on Friday, a front starts to
flirt with the TX Panhandle compliments of an upper low poised
over Saskatchewan. Zonal flow will win out Friday, though, in our
area, keeping temperatures on the hot side but slightly cooler
than Thursday as 850 temps cool into the upper 20C range. Again on
Saturday, the front tries to push through during the day, but it
won`t be successful until Saturday night as a secondary trough
rotating around the low propels the cool air through the entire
forecast area. A few models are trying to break out some meager
precipitation along the front Saturday night, however, an
extremely deep layer of dry air will be in place at FROPA. With
the meager moisture wrung out by our last front, am disinclined to
believe that this front will be able to produce much with RH
values in the single digits ahead of it. Attm, have kept the
forecast dry.

Next week, models are hinting at an unsettled weather pattern, with
precipitation possibly entering the picture as early as Monday
afternoon. At this point, it appears moisture won`t be a problem
with GOM moisture streaming into the region. However, flow will be
weak, and it is just too far out to see with any certainty any
defined shortwaves. Have kept slight to chance mention PoPs in attm
until greater detail can be obtained.


FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

Hot dry air will be advected into the region today with
southwesterly winds. RH values are expected to fall into the
single digits across much of the Caprock, and 20-foot winds will
hover around the 20 KT range. Wind gusts up to 30 KT this
afternoon will also add to fire concerns. Therefore, a Rangeland
Fire Danger Statement has been issued from 17Z to 1Z for the
western three columns of counties.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

74/74



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