Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 132321 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IN STORE. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH KCDS WITH STRONG SUSTAINED NORTH WIND. FRONT IS AT THE
DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY. HOWEVER...WIND WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO INCREASE IN SPEED AT KLBB UNTIL A STRONGER
SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND SURGE WILL
LIKELY BUMP SUSTAINED SPEEDS CLOSE TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THIS WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME DUST BEING BLOWN ABOUT AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY
DAY AS WELL. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN BLOWING DUST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY TO LOOK AT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WARM...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...SWITCHES OVER TO COLD...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR RATHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...DUE TO THE NEWRD TRANSLATION OF THE UA TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
RESIDED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...AN OBVIOUS DRYLINE HAS SETUP. ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ASPERMONT. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BRUSH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB TAPPING INTO
25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...HAS RESULTED IN SFC WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN /WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY HITTING ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS/. HENCE A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE EXPERIENCED LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH /IN ADDITION TO A 700 MB JET
MAX OF 30+ KTS/...WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO DO SO...A RELAXING GRADIENT HAS EQUATED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH CAN BE SEEN VIA 20Z WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE
READINGS /15-25 MPH/. TEMPS ARE BIT COOLER THEN RECENT DAYS GIVEN
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
ENSUED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THESE TEMPS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND THE CONTINUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING /FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE/ IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REASON FOR THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE BEING EXCLUDED FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS BECAUSE IT IS COOLER THERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS /10-15
MPH/ THAT HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NW...THANKS TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT AT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRUGGLING CU-FIELDS NOTED ACROSS EAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE...THIS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WERE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
THUS FAR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB. HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB
CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES AND WRN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AOA 14/06Z. MAV SPEEDS SHOW A WEAKER WIND
SOLUTION /BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ VERSUS A BONA-FIDE WIND
ADVISORY PER THE MAV. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE ANTICIPATED
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 30 MPH OR
SO WIND SPEEDS /NEARING OR EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
/THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE OFF THE CAPROCK/ COMMENCING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND ENDING AT 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE WIND
UNFORTUNATELY COMES THE DUST. LACK OF A VISIBLE HABOOB FEATURE LATE
THIS AFTN DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL NOT FORM LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...SO PLEASE STAY
ALERT.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS PASSING UA DISTURBANCE...IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SEEN DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST NEW
MEXICO/WRN PANHANDLES/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE THANKS TO THE FROPA /850 MB TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C/...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SHOWN TO COOL RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AOA 14/09Z. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS PLAUSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION
ATTM. WITH RECENT WARM DAYS...THE ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON RELATIVELY WARM
ROADWAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS FREEZING/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
LUBBOCK...VERSUS LOWER TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AVG LAST FREEZE DATE FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHICH ARE
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES...WHERE COUNTIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST HAVE YET TO REACH THEIR AVG LAST FREEZE DATE.
SINCE THE SAID COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING. TOMORROW...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR
FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COMMENCES TO EXIT THE REGION. /29

LONG TERM...
CONCERNS EASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH COLD AIR SPILLING IN WITH AN APPROXIMATE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ATOP THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
COOLED A BIT MORE SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK. LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REFORMING TUESDAY WILL
HASTEN WARMING AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS A BIT TO
THE EAST...WITH BETTER WARMING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIGHT
RECOVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S OR LOW 30S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY SEEMS MOST LIKELY DAY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER ROLLING PLAINS. THE NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON WILL
BE DIFFERING PROJECTIONS OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH RE-CARVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND ALSO A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUCH IS THE GFS
COLD FRONT THAT IT WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
DRAGGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS LESS HARSH WITH THIS COLD FRONT STALLING IT NEAR I-10
FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE IN BETTER POSITION TO RETURN NORTHWEST.
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE GFS PUSHES IN A
QUICKER OPEN WAVE NEXT SATURDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE COMPLICATED INFLUENCE
OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO AT LEAST MARGINAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASE LATE NEXT SATURDAY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE INTO
LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RANGE. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHICH CAUSED WESTERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED A
BIT TO 15-25 MPH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUS CAUSING A SLIGHTLY RELAXED
GRADIENT. NONETHELESS...20-FOOT WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY LATE THIS
AFTN. WRLY WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM WHICH IN TURN...PLUMMETS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
NEAR/SURPASS THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING /WHICH
AFFECTS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/ WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  22  65  38 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  44  22  65  38 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  45  24  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  49  26  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  48  26  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  52  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  50  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          37  51  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  53  30  66  38 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

14/93/14





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