Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 152316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
516 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE MAY PLAY A BIT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK WITH THE WINDS DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER FAIRLY QUICKLY. A
COOLER DAY SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY WITH INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE RIDGE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HINDERING INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION. WE CHOSE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE
BIAS METHODS...WHICH ALSO RESEMBLED PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A LLJ WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FA BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. SOME LIFT
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS THE LIFT APPEARS IT
WILL BE SHALLOW AND WEAK MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED AND
REPLACED WITH ISO SPRINKLES. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW QPF
DURING THIS TIME AND IS LIGHT AT BEST. THE NAM AT TIMES WILL SHOW
SOME QPF WHEN A LAYER IS SATURATED WHEN THE END RESULT IS ONLY
STRATUS. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. A MAGIC EIGHT
BALL BECOMES HANDY AS WE GET INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS STILL
PROGGED TO PUSH THIS WAY BY LATE WEEK...BUT MODELS LARGE AND SMALL
ALIKE DISAGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION AND SPEED OF THE TROF. 12Z RUNS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...MINUS THE CMC...HAVE PRODUCED A DRY FORECAST
FOR LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER BY FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THAN THE GFS BUT DIFFERS GREATLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
00Z RUN. THE CMC HAS AN EVEN DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THE ONLY MODEL TO RESEMBLE THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z RUNS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS IS THE NAM. DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE IN COURSE AND LACK
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z RUNS POPS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
REMOVAL OF SNOW MENTION AS TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW REGARDLESS IF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OR
NOT DUE TO THE LOW HAVING DIFFICULTY TAPPING INTO COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTH.

AS THE TROF PASSES TO OUR EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND ANOTHER TROF
SHOULD BE COMING ON DECK TOWARDS SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF
RATHER WEAK AND SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE TROF. THIS
IN TURN MAKES THE GFS A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
MORE CONSISTENT PATTERN TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAS MORE INFLUENCE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF TAPS INTO
GULF MOISTURE VIA A LLJ AND PRODUCES PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT CAN BE BROUGHT
DOWN BY THIS TROF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW
THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT JUST LIQUID PRECIP GIVEN THE TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  50  29  57  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         25  50  31  54  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     26  51  32  54  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     26  51  34  58  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       28  51  35  57  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   29  51  34  59  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    29  52  35  58  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     29  51  34  51  36 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          28  52  36  55  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     30  52  39  55  41 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.