Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 050443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT ALREADY HAS BEEN
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH DRY SUBSIDENT FORCING WILL EDGE
EAST TO ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER BY LATE ON THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT
HAS BEEN TAPPED INTO EARLY TODAY WILL LOSE INFLUENCE LATER TODAY
WITH VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY TONIGHT...LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE ADEQUATELY FOR
ANOTHER CRISP NIGHT ON THE CAPROCK WHERE SOILS HAVE DRIED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SAND HILLS AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL WARM
NICELY...ADJUSTED A HALF NOTCH HIGHER BASED ON TRENDS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF
CONSEQUENCE IS CURRENTLY CHURNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW AND
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PORTIONS OF IT BEGIN EJECTING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS.

DROPPING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN A RETURN OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
WEST TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY ON FRIDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT REALLY OPENING UP UNTIL ON
SATURDAY. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY...THOUGH ODDS OF IT MAKING
IT INTO THE CWA STILL APPEAR LOW...WITH SOME DEBRIS MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS MAY CHANGE ON
SATURDAY AS THE DRYLINE GRADUALLY TIGHTENS AND ADVANCES SOMEWHERE
INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL ZONES BY PEAK HEATING. THE LATEST NWP
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERN LOW
MAY LARGELY SKIRT US TO THE NORTH...BUT WEAK INHIBITION ALONG WITH
FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE STILL APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CI LOCALLY. ASSUMING STORMS DO DEVELOP...MUCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IMPROVING TO 40-50+ KNOTS WOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH STILL LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTING A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO A POTENTIAL
OUTCOME. THESE STORMS WOULD CARRY THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE STORM CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE CAPROCK...AND
PERHAPS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS NORTHWEST TEXAS.
CURRENTLY THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH PROGGED 850 MB WINDS OF 30+ KNOTS...MEANING WE COULD
VENTURE INTO WIND ADVISORY TERRITORY AS WELL AS SEE A BIT OF BLOWING
DUST. ASIDE FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...DRY AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY
STAY JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIM THUNDER CHANCES NEAR AND EAST
OF ASPERMONT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO AROUND MID-WEEK
UNTIL SLIM RAIN CHANCES MAY REVISIT THE REGION AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE LIMITED BY THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING FROM ABOVE
AVERAGE /WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S/ LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.