Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 280527
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. A chance
for showers and thunderstorms does exists at CDS tomorrow after
00Z, however chances are too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A summertime high continues to slowly move westward and is located
from New Mexico  to SE KS this afternoon as a weak wave tracks
westward across Sonora. There will be a tendency for the high to
shift westward with time becoming situated over the Great Basin by
the middle of next week. By this Saturday, a weakness becomes
somewhat more evident in the high extending from Sonora toward the
Great Basin. This, in turn, has tended the northwesterly flow to
be a bit weaker this weekend than previously indicated.
Nevertheless, some ripples in the mean flow to the north of the
high pressure region will help influence NW TX weather by way of a
couple of frontal surges.

Convection this evening should largely remain focused across the TX
Panhandle where monsoon moisture is maximized.  Some activity could
creep into our northern zones overnight.  Into Saturday, we get
another bit of forcing from a back door cold front which will tend
to generate activity out across our northeast.  This boundary is
progged to continue pushing very slowly southeast.  By Sunday the
risk of scattered storms may end up close to the I27 corridor  but
with these weakly forced regimes, it`s not possible to accurately
nail down any specifics. Northwest flow convection may become
established as early as Sunday night into the first half of next
week and this could provide our best shot at more widespread
precipitation. However, each run of the various computer
solutions paints a different picture so will broadbrush POPs for
the time being.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

51/99/99



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