Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

VFR conditions in place at KLBB and KPVW but will have to watch
KLBB closely for possibility of MVFR or IFR ceilings sneaking in
over the next several hours. Bank of VLIFR ceilings and
visibilities continues east of KLBB and KPVW covering the KCDS
terminal and this deck will likely not clear. Expect KCDs to
remain VLIFR through much of the afternoon with a possibility of
IFR conditions later. IFR to LIFR conditions will then rapidly
spread east over KLBB and KPVW after sunset and remain in place
through Saturday morning. Expect strong west wind to develop
Saturday morning which will quickly dissipate low ceilings at KLBB
and KPVW mid-morning while taking a bit longer at KCDS. Just
beyond the end of this TAF cycle for planning purposes; strong
west wind will develop at KLBB/KPVW with blowing dust likely
reducing visibilities to 3 SM at times.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

An upper level trough remains over the western continental U.S.
roughly from the Montana to southern California with southwesterly
flow aloft over the southern Plains. Low to mid level warm and
moist advection associated with this flow is producing some
thunderstorms across central Texas this morning with some model
indications of development as far west as the Big Country and
southern Rolling Plains. Will keep chance PoPs going for the
southeastern zones this morning. Low level flow is likely to
remained backed across the forecast area with the upper trough
still to our west. This will result in south winds on the Caprock
with more of an easterly component across the Rolling Plains. This
in turn will likely keep stratus across the eastern counties
through the day with temperatures struggling into the lower to mid
40s this afternoon while on the Caprock more abundant insolation
should help temperatures push well into the 50s and lower 60s.

The western upper trough will begin to advance eastward this
afternoon then accelerate eastward overnight. Increasing lift
ahead of the trough may interact with low and mid level moisture
across the southeastern counties again tonight with another chance
for showers/thunder. Further west the surface trough/Pacific cold
front will move across eastern New Mexico into the western
counties tonight then sweep across the area Saturday morning. This
will result in the standard west winds and dry advection this time
of year with this pattern. MOS continues to back off on wind
speeds a bit with high wind looking less likely and wind advisory
criteria still a distinct possibility.

Additional breezy to windy conditions are expected Sunday with
another, albeit weaker, mid/upper trough progged to move across
the region. The last of item of note this morning is another upper
trough progged to develop in the vicinity of southern California
early next week, ejecting quickly eastward and possibly bringing a
brief chance of showers Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Confidence
still low at this time and will keep mention out of the forecast
for now.

Still on track for a period of critical fire weather conditions
Saturday as a mid/upper level trough moves across the southern and
central High Plains. Surface dew point temperatures will drop into
single digits for a good portion of the area resulting in relative
humidity falling to or below 15 percent. Will continue with the
Fire Weather Watch as-is.

There is the potential for additional critical conditions Sunday,
particularly on the South Plains as west winds will become breezy
again and humidity bottoms out near 10 percent. Confidence is not
as high regarding wind speeds and will not issue any highlights
for Sunday at this time.


Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for TXZ021>044.



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