000
FXUS64 KLUB 062340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
540 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NO
THREAT TO VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
BACK AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND BEGIN TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS COOL BIAS
FOR TOMORROW WHICH HAS SEEN POOR PERFORMANCE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS GIVEN ITS RECENT BETTER PERFORMANCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH FOG IS NOT LIKELY FOR TOMORROW MORNING...A HEAVY FROST
WILL BE LIKELY.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO CARRY A TROF ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. PRECIP FIELDS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SKIRTING THIS REGION AND
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS KEEP A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE KEEPING SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODELS ARE
ALSO GENERATING PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS BUT THEY ARE SPORADIC AND
WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST. THIS PRECLUDES ANY POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. JUST PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  56  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         25  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     26  58  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     27  57  35  62 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       27  58  36  63 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   29  56  37  60 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    29  57  38  59 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     28  64  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          29  60  39  62 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     29  59  39  61 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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