Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 051153
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
653 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT THUNDER
CHANCES TODAY ALTHOUGH SMALL AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD AND A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY
ATTEMPT A RUN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEITHER LOOK CAPABLE ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE BIG STORY PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN IMPULSE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. BUT A
SMALL AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED LOOKING MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO
PULLED OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE
AND WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TODAY.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT RUNS HAVE BEEN GENERATING
VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. GIVEN THE DRY
LOWEST TWO MILES OF ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE PRETTY
LOW AND WE HAVE LEFT IT NOT MENTIONED. BUT WE DID BUY AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT INTO MORE CLOUDS TODAY. AND THIS WILL LIKELY DETER SURFACE
HEATING AT LEAST A SMALL AMOUNT SO WE CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT OUR MOS
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. COULD STILL BE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE A
CLEARING TREND WITH MILD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY PROMOTE INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND THE LIKELY FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR FOR
MANY...INCLUDING THE HUB CITY...AS THE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX WILL BE
IN FULL FORCE WITH THE SIGNIFICANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EXPECTED
TODAY AND UNPERTURBED SUNSHINE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS PROGGED TO
COME ASHORE THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY THUS MIGRATING THE
RIDGE AXIS TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS AND PERHAPS ALLOWING A FEW SHREDS
OF CIRRUS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS FROM APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF BRINGS ENOUGH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY TO TRY TO CONVECT...BUT THE
CORE OF ANY SEMBLANCE OF DEEPER LAYER FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FORM OF
FRIDAY/S CALIFORNIA DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THIS FEATURE CAN CUT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUILDING HEIGHTS LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES BACK WEST TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS. WILL
THUS KEEP POPS NIL AT THIS JUNCTURE AND MONITOR POSITIONING OF THE
RIDGE FOR LATER SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
HOT...IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 60S TO MID
70S FOR LOWS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY BE SHAVED OFF FROM THOSE SEEN LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDENT ON RIDGE PLACEMENT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH OR NORTHWEST THIS FEATURE MAY
BUILD...BUT H85 THERMAL RIDGE DOES APPEAR TO MIGRATE NORTHWEST
INTO EARLY-MID WEEK. THE WELL-TRAVELED UPPER DISTURBANCE MENTIONED
ABOVE SHOULD BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING
SOUTHEAST BY THIS TIME...ALSO POSSIBLY HELPING TO "COOL" THINGS
OFF A TAD BY BRINGING IN A FEW MID CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  67  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         97  69 100  71 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     97  70 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     98  70 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       98  72 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   98  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    99  71 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    101  74 105  77 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR         100  73 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  76 105  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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