Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 230904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Relatively quiet weather day today as we are sandwiched between
storm systems. Progressive upper ridging the first half of today
will quickly yield to increasing southwesterly flow this afternoon
and tonight in advance of our next wind maker tomorrow. Light winds
early this morning will become breezy southwesterly winds this
afternoon as pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies and the
pressure gradient tightens modestly locally. The downsloping winds
and abundant sunshine (aside from perhaps a few passing high clouds)
will support one warm day with highs 15 to 20 degrees above average.
Winds won`t completely drop off with the approach of the western
storm tonight and this will help secure a mild overnight by January

The weather pattern still looks favorable for a windy day across
the forecast area on Tuesday. Fortunately, it appears that we
will avoid the threat of a high wind event as the lower-
tropospheric speed max shifts east of the area by late morning,
before mixing will be able to tap into the strongest winds.
However, a tight pressure gradient and deep mixing through the
dry air mass will still support wind speeds rising in the 25 to
35 mph range, with gusts up to around 50 mph, for most of the area
from late morning through most of the afternoon. And probably some
locations will see a period of 30 to 40 mph sustained speeds
during the afternoon. A wind advisory will likely be needed for
most of our area.

The gradient will relax Tuesday evening with a weak front moving
through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The front will lose
definition Wednesday as winds respond to a trailing shortwave
trough sliding across nrn NM and the panhandles. Our forecast area
will mainly see modest but dry westerly flow Wednesday into
Thursday and the latest guidance has been trending a bit warmer
which fits this pattern. So, we have nudged the high temperatures
above the blended guidance on Wednesday and Thursday.

Cooler temperatures are still on track for Friday as an elongated
upper-trough sags south through the CONUS and drives a cold front
through the plains. Highs on Friday should fall back into the
40s, with cool northerly flow continuing Saturday then moderating
on Sunday.


Warm and dry southwesterly breezes may briefly elevate the fire
danger this afternoon. Although both wind speeds and RH values will
likely be shy of critical levels they will come close, particularly
across the western zones. Hence, we will issue a fire danger for the
southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains valid this
afternoon (from 18Z to 00Z).

We expect an elevated fire danger across most of the area Tuesday
afternoon. Drying, downslope westerly winds will work west to
east across the area, however this will be in conjunction with
cooler air and this will likely keep RH values above critical
thresholds. However, guidance is often a little high with dewpoint
temperatures in this pattern and it is possible we could see some
areas where RH dips below 15 percent for a time - especially
across western and southern portions of the South Plains into the
southern Rolling Plains where it will be a little bit drier.




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