Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271737
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR will be the rule this TAF cycle. There may be a few afternoon
cumulus clouds, while any deep moist convection originating over
the higher terrain of NM should fade well off to the west and
northwest of the terminals this evening. The debris from this
activity may provide some mid-high clouds early Wednesday with
even an isolated elevated shower not out of the question.
Southerly breezes will be the general rule through the period,
perhaps increasing a little bit during the evening/overnight
beneath a modest LLJ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Model consensus is strong for the next trough currently entering
the Pacific Northwest to gradually break down the ridge that will
begin our return to more seasonable heat beginning this
afternoon. We`ll go from low 90s today, mid 90s Wednesday and
triple digit heat on Thursday as the upper level flow becomes more
zonal through midweek. Best energy associated with the Pacific
trough will remain well to our north leaving our area in meager
flow aloft with little instability to tap into what should be
decent Gulf moisture return through Thursday out ahead of a cold
front scheduled to push through the Texas Panhandle late Thursday
into early Friday.

One exception is potential for convection Wednesday afternoon as a
dryline develops in proximity of the TX/NM state line. ECMWF
indicates a sharper moisture gradient timed with an upper level
shortwave and steeper height falls in the late afternoon, while
the GFS picks up on this feature somewhat, it is currently backing
off of initiation. Sharp differences on potential for precip on
Friday exists as well, with the ECMWF hinting at more common
scenario of convection moving off the higher terrain of eastern
New Mexico into the South Plains, while the GFS has convection
mostly across Oklahoma associated with the larger synoptic trough
axis well to the east, despite both timing the Pacific front
pushing south through the Texas Panhandle and into the South
Plains at almost the exact same time, late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. The ECMWF holds dewpts steadily in the 60s
ahead of the advancing cold front late Thursday while the GFS
pushes the dryline well east of our area. The location of the
highest surface moisture will dictate our rain chances. Precip
chances extend into Saturday as the front stalls and weak
northwest flow reestablishes itself in the wake of the exiting
trough.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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