Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241725 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

VFR conditions now in place at KLBB, KPVW, and KCDS. Main issue
will be strong west wind with periods of MVFR visibility at KLBB
and KPVW. Wind gusts will approach 45 KTS at those two TAF sites
as well while KCDS remains closer to 30 KTS. Visibilities will
improve shortly after sunset and wind speeds will decrease as well
with VFR conditions overnight tonight into tomorrow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

A pretty dynamic late winter/early spring scenario on tap today.
Rich low level moisture in place across the forecast area has
result in fog and drizzle for much of the morning with a
transition to dry, mild, and windy expected this afternoon. The
mid/upper trough responsible for the dynamism is moving eastward
across the 4-corners and intermountain west early this morning and
will move over the High Plains around midday. As it does low level
flow will veer with strong dry advection replacing the low level
moisture. Surface cyclogenesis is progged to occur across the
Panhandle this morning while in the mid levels a 50 kt jet streak
is expected to rotate over the South and Rolling Plains. The
combination sets up at least 20-30 mph for the forecast area with
a good potential for 25-35 mph on the Caprock, especially along
and north of Texas 114. There are a few mitigating circumstances
that might keep these stronger winds being realized, mainly
questions about the degree of static instability and the proximity
of the surface low. However, positives outweigh the negatives and
will hoist a Wind Advisory for the area of concern. Another short
wave trough in the mid and upper levels will cross the High Plains
Sunday, although this one is not as strong with a range of wind
speeds 15-30 mph more likely.

After a brief period of upper level ridging Monday another upper
trough is progged to take shape over California. Models persist in
ejecting this trough across the desert southwest midweek but are
beginning to show some discrepancy with intensity and timing. Low
level moisture drawn northwestward ahead of it will be enough to
keep a mention of slight chance of precip in across the far
southeastern zones Wednesday into Wednesday night, but if the
slower runs (e.g., the ECMWF) begin to dominate that may need to
pushed into Thursday.

Very dry air will move into the area this afternoon with RH
bottoming out near 10 percent on the South Plains and 10-15
percent on the Rolling Plains. Winds will easily meet Red Flag
criteria. While meteorological conditions should be easily met
almost area wide it appears fuels may not be ready to respond
after the bit of rain several days and the lingering low level
moisture, especially across the Rolling Plains. ERC values are
only near 25 percent off the Caprock but closer to 50 percent on
the Cap. Trying to balance the two have opted for a Red Flag
Warning along and north of Texas 114 and along and west of I-27
with a Fire Danger Statement for the remainder of the area.

Sunday offers similar concerns with RH but winds will not be as
strong. ERC`s should increase some with today`s dry and windy
conditions, but there will be concerns with the meteorology.
Elevated looks fairly likely. Critical not looking too good.


Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023-

Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ021>024-



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