Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 090530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1130 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Low VFR cigs have persisted all evening, with a gradually lowering
trend noted. Would expect KLBB and KPVW to dip into MVFR territory
for a time later tonight where they will likely reside through
much of Friday morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before
scattering out. KCDS will also see lowering decks, though they
will probably remain VFR. Light southerly winds overnight will
become breezy Friday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 937 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

Stratus is hanging in tough across the forecast area and is even
spreading southward, likely to bring overcast skies to the far
southeastern corner of the area. A gradual lowering of the
ceilings is noted, and in combination with trends on satellite, we
are pretty confident this cloud cover will persist through the
night. This cloud cover and the southeast low level flow suggest
temperatures will struggle to go much lower tonight. Have adjusted
overnight lows up for much of the area. The exception is around
Aspermont where clear skies have allowed for rapid cooling there.
That should be near an end, however, as stratus expands that

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

Thin and gradually lowering layer of moisture between 700 and 850
mb now looks like it persist through the night and perhaps well
into Friday. This is supported by regional observations,
satellite imagery and progged soundings. This will mean that the low
clouds that are currently blanketing all but our far southeast
zones may hang tough through the night over much of the area.
Given this we have boosted sky grids to reflect mostly cloudy to
cloudy conditions overnight. The remainder of the forecast remains
largely on track. It will be a chilly night, though the clouds
should help keep temperatures from cratering.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

A chilly airmass built into the forecast area today, and under
mostly cloudy skies, temperatures have remained stuck in the 20s for
most areas. In fact, up in the southwest Texas Panhandle, West Texas
Mesonet stations in Dimmitt and Friona have only recently rose above
the teens. Ceilings have lifted through the day and we have seen
some partial clearing work in from the northeast, but we expect to
only have a few more degrees of warming before we start cooling back
down by 5 pm or so.

The cold surface ridge will slide southeast through eastern KS and
OK tonight, with a return to lee troughing and southerly breezes for
our area on Friday. Deep-layer moisture will continue to thin under
dry northwest flow aloft, but forecast soundings and cross-sections
suggest a narrow zone of near-saturation continuing through about
mid-day Friday, to be followed by drying from west to east. We
should see low stratus reassert itself across the western South
Plains tonight, and this should keep low temps from bottoming out.
Lows should mainly be in the teens to low 20s area-wide. It is
difficult to say at this point whether or not the moist layer will
support a lingering broken to overcast cloud deck through much of
Friday morning, and put some downward pressure on high temps. For
now the forecast highs of low 40s look to be reasonable.

Warming trend to continue into the weekend as broad low amplitude
cyclonic flow prevails across the conus with slowly rising
mid/upper heights over the Southern Plains states. Cp surface
high pressure system will migrate eastward toward the east coast
on Saturday as low pressure deepens across SE CO and NE NM
resulting in breezy southwest winds Saturday. Upper flow will
remain nearly zonal this weekend as a few fast moving impulses
race across the Northern Plains and Midwest. Really cold
continental air will remain across the northern and northeastern
third of the nation...and will nudge southward with the passage
of each of these waves. The first front will make a run toward
our northeastern the SE Panhandle...Sunday
night...followed by a colder and more significant polar airmass
Tuesday or Tuesday night. Both GFS and ECMWF reflect this midweek
front...and suspect that the deep freeze will return although
given this progged upper air pattern...cold air may not hang
around long again. Our region may remain as the battle ground
between the more mild air across the southern Conus and this
frigid air to the I suspect more fropas may be in the
cards late this week and into the weekend but timing and strength
very difficult to determine this far out. Did go colder than
guidance on Wednesday which may be the coldest day...and temps
could remain below freezing for highs then as the operational GFS
run currently suggests. No dynamically driven precipitation
expected over the next few days...but these strong baroclinic
fronts always present the possibility of light drizzle/freezing
drizzle or light snow. Big temperature swings ahead. James




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