


Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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329 FXUS64 KLUB 140433 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast through Monday evening across the Caprock and Rolling Plains. - Storm chances return late Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 02Z upper air analysis reveals an amplifying, subtropical ridge centered offshore Baja California, with a shearing 250 mb trough branching over the northern Chihuahua Desert and into the central Great Plains. The base of this shearing trough was evident on the 14/00Z objectively analyzed UA charts, and lags behind a departing shortwave trough that has since translated northeastward into the Corn Belt. The presence of this residual 250 mb trough continues to impart some degree of baroclinity over the region, and water-vapor imagery has detected a subtle impulse in the mid-levels. As this convectively-augmented, mid-level impulse continues to propagate southward, with its movement governed by the expanding ridge to the west, additional development of isolated showers and thunderstorms are now forecast during the overnight hours across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. An anemic low-level jet will also veer southwestward overnight, acting to keep any nocturnal convection isolated. The grids have been updated through 12Z tomorrow to account for this thinking. At the surface, winds remain weak and backed towards the southeast, maintaining the component of upslope flow. A diffuse surface trough was analyzed west of the NM state line, with the nearest low rotating into central N TX. The lack of any viable boundary or area of low-level convergence beneath the weak, large-scale forcing for ascent aloft, will eliminate any potential for flash flooding and strong-to-severe-caliber storms tonight. Brief downpours will accompany storms, however. The airmass at the surface and low-levels will remain barotropic as the 250 mb trough continues to shear out, but the 30 kt jet streak, analyzed by the 14/00Z MAF RAOB, should remain intact through tomorrow evening as it is slow to decay from the maintenance of a ribbon of vorticity stretched over the southern Great Plains into the TN River Valley. Isolated-to-widely-scattered storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains, as the airmass will once again become uncapped beneath an EML yielding SBCAPE values upwards of 2,500 J/kg, which is typical this time of year with a subtropical airmass. Weak steering flow will govern a mean storm movement via propagation versus advection, with slow- moving storms expected. However, the anemic steering flow and lack of shear throughout the cloud-bearing layer will deter organization of cells. Brief, heavy rainfall directly beneath the cores of the storms will be the primary hazard with storms tomorrow. Otherwise, high temperatures will be similar to today, with highs rising into the middle 80s as geopotential height tendencies remain near neutral to slightly positive. Storm chances will diminish following the cessation of vertical mixing while remaining muggy area-wide. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Subtropical ridging will continue to amplify over the Desert Southwest, with its center rotating over the Four Corners region by Tuesday. A semi-progressive wave pattern will persist over the 49th parallel, with a compact shortwave trough forecast to dig into the Glacier Country. The net increase in the magnitude of cross-barrier flow will spawn a lee cyclone across eastern CO, with a surface trough branching southward into eastern NM. A modest isallobaric response will follow, resulting in breezy, southerly winds returning to the CWA Tuesday. Rising geopotential heights as the mid-level ridge noses into the region will boost temperatures into the middle 90s area-wide while also suppressing any storm chances. Persistence forecasting was applied to Wednesday, with similar sensible weather conditions expected area-wide, as the shortwave trough dampens in amplitude and ejects into the northern Great Plains. By Wednesday evening, WAA-induced showers and storms may develop along the western edge of the strengthening low-level jet. It appears that the best chances for late-evening and/or overnight convection will be across portions of the Caprock, but spatiotemporal coverage should be isolated as the low-level jet veers prior to sunrise. Barotropy will become restored by the end of the week as the subtropical ridge expands across the southern half of the Lower 48, but the 250 mb jet streak is forecast to remain amplified over the north-central Great Plains by late week. Renewed storm chances are forecast through the end of the week, with the best potential Thursday night. Otherwise, seasonably hot temperatures are forecast through next weekend. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Continued VFR with light winds. ISO-SCT TS are likely to impact LBB and PVW for the next few hours. Confidence is lower at CDS as it appears much of the TS development will stay west of the terminal. By this afternoon, another round of TS is likely just about anywhere, although low coverage precludes mention in the TAFs for now. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...93