Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 300259 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
959 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS FINALLY MAKING IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT IT WAS ADVANCING INTO INCREASINGLY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR AND IT WAS SHOWING. THE ONCE SEVERE STORM WEST OF
CLOVIS IS NOW JUST A SHADOW OF ITSELF...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO ITS EAST AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TREND TO STOP. STILL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE TAIL END OF LIFT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS GRAZES
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A MODESTLY STRONG AND MOIST SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FUEL/FORCING TO KEEP A
FEW WEAKER CONVECTIVE CORES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE REMOVED
THE SEVERE MENTION /ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES/ FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE DID KEEP POPS ROUGHLY THE SAME...AND
ACTUALLY EXPANDED THE MINIMAL SHOWER/STORM MENTION EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE HWO...HAVE BEEN SENT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO HOME...ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY LOCALLY THAN WE
SAW TODAY...AND WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR REMAINING IN
PLACE...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
LATE EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL W OF TERMINALS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS FIRST LOBE OF
ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL JET MAY TRY TO TAP INTO SOME
REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD SHRA TO
TAFS. SFC BASED STORMS MORE LIKELY LATE TUE AFTERNOON BEYOND THE
FOCUS OF THIS TAF WITH POTENTIAL GREATEST AT KCDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SLINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
OPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.  AS IT DOES...ANOTHER MINOR LOBE
OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERING OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM T.C. RACHEL THOUGH ITS
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE QUITE UNREMARKABLE THOUGH
PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN INDICATED IN THIS
MORNING/S RUNS.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WELL DISPLACED FROM BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE DYNAMIC LIFT AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NM
WITH SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK IN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY.  THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH EXPECTATIONS AFTER WATCHING
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OR MORE
LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO NM AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  GIVEN 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR VECTORS AND LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME LOW END SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE 4KM NCEP WRF EXTENDS THE
CONVECTION MOST AGGRESSIVELY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH BUT IT IS A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER.  THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN
OUR NORTHWESTERN 4 COUNTIES.  SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.  INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DRYLINE PUNCHES EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
BEST THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.  INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF
THE LUBBOCK AREA THOUGH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY BUILD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST.  ONCE AGAIN...THREAT FOR LOW-MED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
EXIST WITH CAPE UPWARDS OF 2KJ/KG IN A REGION OF SHEAR BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS.

LONG TERM...
THE BULK OF THE EXCITEMENT DURING THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXIST BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL A DRY...BREEZY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA
AND ABRUPTLY PUTS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE SITUATED ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
I-27 CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WITH REASONABLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 30
KTS...AND CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
WHILE THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
MARK...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MODES WILL MAINTAIN CHC MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
AGAIN...A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
LUBBOCK SOUTHWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY SOUTH OF
THIS LATITUDE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS WE MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...IN
ADDITION TO FORCING FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A BREEZY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY SOONER...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY EVENING...AND REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...OPTED
TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT STRONG
FROPA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...PERSISTENT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES BLUEBIRD CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT...LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS A
COMFORTABLE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  CERTAINLY AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND
TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  80  54  82  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         59  83  57  85  54 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  82  58  85  54 /  20  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  83  60  85  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  61  86  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   60  84  61  86  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  85  62  87  56 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  65  92  57 /  20  20  30  20  20
SPUR          62  85  65  90  63 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     62  88  69  92  69 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/23





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