Area Forecast Discussion
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742
FXUS64 KLUB 211740
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.AVIATION...
KLBB and KPVW have returned to VFR and will remain that way
through the afternoon as drier westerly winds have overspread the
terminals. These winds could get a little gusty this afternoon,
particularly at KLBB. A strong cold front will then follow this
evening with current FROPA expected at 00Z for KPVW and O1Z for
KLBB. An abrupt northeasterly wind shift and gusty winds will
follow the FROPA with breezy northerly winds continuing through
much of Saturday. In addition, MVFR ceilings will likely fill in
behind the front and persist much of the night and perhaps well
into Saturday morning. At KCDS IFR conditions are currently in
place though they are expected to improve to MVFR over the next
hour or two. There is a chance KCDS could experience a brief
period of VFR late afternoon, though renewed breezy and relatively
moist northeasterly to northerly winds will quickly reinforce MVFR
ceiling this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

UPDATE...
Skies have cleared across much of the Caprock into the southern
Rolling Plains where dry westerly winds have begun to spread out
of New Mexico. The dry and downsloping breezes and near full
insolation will allow for rapid warming through the afternoon and
we have boosted forecast highs a few degrees for most of the area.
Most locations will peak in the 80s with lower 90s also possible
across the southern zones. The exception will be across the
northeast zones where a convective outflow combine with lingering
cloud cover (that should slowly recede through the afternoon) will
keep temperatures down in the 60s and 70s. We have edged forecast
highs down in this area. Otherwise, mentionable PoPs (that were
in place across the northeast zones) were pulled for the remainder
of the day as the lift and deep moisture associated with the
upper trough/low passing by to our north has now shifted east of
the CWA. After the breezy and warm afternoon all but the northeast
zones we are still on schedule for a decent cold front to sweep
through the South Plains this evening. In addition to cooler
/below average/ temperatures advecting in on gusty northeasterly
winds we may see a bout of stratus overnight, but moisture will be
too shallow to support rain chances.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Vigorous short wave passing from Colorado across southern Kansas
this morning will bring thunderstorms to parts of the
panhandles. Expect the storms to remain just north of our
forecast area with the possible exception of the southeast
Panhandle including Childress. Low clouds over the northern half
of the area lifted just north of Lubbock earlier this morning.
They could possible return before mid morning but the overall
trend will be for strong westerly winds to push from west to east
across the region today. The westerly winds will lead to above
normal temperatures today and low humidity values...leading to
elevated fire weather conditions. Will issue RFD for southwestern
third of the area including Lubbock County today. However...amount
of greenness in vegetation will help diminish fire weather
concerns.

Strong cold front is expected to push south through the area late
afternoon into this evening and bring colder temperatures tonight.
Lows will likely be in the upper 30s over the southwest Panhandle
and northwest South Plains by tomorrow morning, but with continued
northerly winds overnight do not expect frost to be of concern.
Lipe

LONG TERM...
Saturday morning will see northwesterly flow aloft with a
disturbance across the central plains that will morph into a
dragging trough Saturday night.  Ridging then builds in on Sunday
and Monday which flattens to a zonal regime with embedded minor
shortwaves through Wednesday.  Into Thursday a low/shortwave digs
into the western states with southwesterly flow across the region
Thursday when the core of the system is over the Great Basin.  How
things evolve beyond then are up in the air...so to speak.

Over to sensible weather, breezy northerlies are in store for
Saturday and it`s late Saturday night before high pressure settles
in across the region allowing the winds to really diminish and
veer. For Sunday, there is a risk of frost in our northwestern
zones as light winds and temps in the 30s. Thereafter, we`ll be
back in the breezy southerly regime with the dryline slowly
pushing east. That is, until Monday night when the dryline surges
eastward and a low deepens to our northeast. A cold front may
approach from the north early Tuesday though guidance holds it up
to our north. As such, the most likely scenario appears to be
breezy westerlies Tuesday and Wednesday. We could see a weak front
approach on Thursday but given the variance in NWP on a synoptic
scale, have little confidence and will let the blends average
things out.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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