Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 281112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED TS TO
DEVELOP ERN NM AND WRN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN OKLA EXTENDS WWD ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SRN NM...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ON ITS WRN END AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED
ACROSS ERN NM MONDAY AFTN WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ONGOING THERE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH ERN COLO AND
WRN KANSAS INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE TODAY WHERE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA IN
PROXIMITY TO A LEE SFC TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS COULD
ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE STANDARD SUMMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS TODAY NEAR OR JUST A TOUCH
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WHILE TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
WEEK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT WESTWARD
THUS BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
A FEW AREAS OF EMBEDDED UL VORTICITY ARE PROGGED TO WRAP AROUND THE
PARENT HIGH WHICH COULD HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS LATE THIS WEEK.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...GUIDANCE IS HITTING ON SCATTERED
POPS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED.  LOOKING AT FCST
SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SENSE AS BOTH THE GFS/ECM/NAM DO INDICATE
INCREASING MOISTURE AOA H7 WHICH LOOKS TO IN SUFFICIENT QUANTITY
TO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MODEST CAPE ABOVE THE LFC.
STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE LITTLE ARGUMENT...OTHER THAN THE PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH...TO KEEP POPS FROM BEING MENTIONED SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWFA
MOST DAYS UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE EXTRA
CONVECTION/CLOUDS...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD TREND DOWN JUST A BIT
LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        95  66  85  65 /  20  30  30  40
TULIA         96  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     95  68  89  67 /  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     96  70  90  68 /  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       95  71  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   95  70  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  72  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  74  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          99  74  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    100  76  97  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26/07



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