Area Forecast Discussion
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261
FXUS64 KLUB 211100
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
600 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR weather today with a few afternoon/early eve storms psbl KLBB
and KCDS. Coverage limited but a few storms around from 21-03z.
Hot temps and relatively high density altitudes at Plainview and
Lubbock mid afternoon, aoa 6K feet.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A more diffuse dryline will set up across the area today with
backing flow aloft in advance of a trough digging into the western
CONUS. There is a slight indication of a short wave on upper level
EPV fields over western New Mexico. However, this feature may move
more over the Panhandle this afternoon than the South Plains.
Models do show some weak low level convergence bisecting the
region this afternoon which may be enough to achieve convective
initiation. Deep layer shear will be weak with values on the order
of only 15kt but mixed layer instabilities will around 1000 J/kg.
This will likely support an isolated severe threat.

Not much has changed with the models and the forecast for this
weekend through the first half of next week. A deep long wave
trough will still cover the entire western CONUS. Thunder chances
will begin to increase on Friday in response to this system.
Increasing instability on Friday afternoon near the Texas/New
Mexico state line will increase severe storm chances. However,
most lift at this time will be limited to eastern New Mexico.
Saturday will see stronger upper level winds arriving along with
an increase in the upper level divergence fields. At the same
time, we will see a decrease in the instability with cooler
temperatures expected. This trend will then continue into Sunday
and the first half of next week. The greatest chances for
widespread precipitation still look to be from Sunday through
Tuesday. Precipitable water values rise to around 200% of normal
by late in the weekend. This will only act to enhance the heavy
rain and flooding potential. Models are consistent in driving a
front through early Tuesday but diverge after that. In general,
the GFS keeps a deeper trough to the west leading to better
precipitation chances through Wednesday and Thursday. At the same
time, the ECMWF shows more zonal flow shifting precipitation
chances more to the south and east of the region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

06



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