Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1138 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Light northerly winds
this afternoon gradually turning southwest overnight as lee side
surface trough persists.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

A sunny and warmer day will occur today. The airmass will continue
drying in weak north-northwesterly flow behind the upper low
trekking east through the deep south. This will translate still in
modest low level northwesterly breezes mainly over the Rolling
Plains, perhaps near or a little over 10 knots at times but hard to
figure much more than that. We continue to favor high temperatures
slightly warmer than blended solutions for today. By later today and
tonight a col will develop aloft with exceedingly flat gradients. A
weak surface trough will be forming, but otherwise little to get
excited about. Tonight should cool close to normals owing to the
weak gradients, clear skies, and relatively drier air. Even so, we
will need to keep an eye for pockets of fog given the abundant
rainfall of the past couple days and light wind. RMcQueen

The upper low will be on its way eastward Friday into Saturday.
Other than low end breezy conditions Friday afternoon the low will
have little impact on the weather. Temps will be on a warming trend
into the weekend as thicknesses increase and winds are more out of
the south to southwest. A second low will push inland across Baja by
late Saturday progressing its way towards the FA by Sunday. This low
looks to be our next big rain producer for the region. Return flow
ahead of the approaching upper low will bring Gulf moisture back to
the region. Combined with tapped Pacific moisture aloft this low
shouldn`t have an excuse for not having enough moisture for
precipitation. Precip will be all liquid as colder Canadian air will
not be able to be accessed given the extent of south to north
meridional flow ahead of the low and zonal flow across the northern
CONUS as the low passes early next week. Thunderstorms should also
be more common with this system as temps will be on the warm side
and lapse rates will be steeper than with the previous low allowing
for more instability.

The low will be slow to pass and should be east of the FA by early
Wednesday. A weak front is portrayed to pass as the low pushes
eastward, but temp modification looks to be at a minimum given the
lack of dynamics to pull colder air southward.




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