Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 061120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE GOOD FLYING WEATHER THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS
YESTERDAY...AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES LAST NIGHT...WAS NOW DEPARTING
TO THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW TODAY BEFORE
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TRANSLATING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH PROVIDES
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOMORROW. WE ARE STARTING THE DAY ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...BUT WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...FULL INSOLATION AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A NICE WARM UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLOSE TO EARLY FEBRUARY NORMS. NEAR AVERAGE /CHILLY/ LOWS WILL
SUCCEED THE MILD AFTERNOON AS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR PROMOTE
EFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS ON SCHEDULE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST WITH
A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THAT WILL PUSH A PACIFIC
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING EXITING OUR AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PROG WINDS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
NAM/GFS AND IS SLOWER FILTERING IN COOLER AIR...KNOCKED SUPERBLEND
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY DOWN A COUPLE TICKS. STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA BEFORE EASING BY MID-AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY JET ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH BRUSHES US TO THE EAST MONDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE HOLDS OFF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR ONE MORE
DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM SUNDAY.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD MODERATE SOUTHWEST
H85 FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER OF 15-20 KTS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL STUNT WARMING FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL HOVER AROUND 70. RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES OUR LONGITUDE BY FRIDAY SETTING UP FOR A NICE END TO
THE WORK WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/55/23


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