Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 170434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1034 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018


Light rain continues to move southwest to northeast across the
area. High res models keep ceilings VFR overnight, but brief MVFR
visibilities are possible with the rain. Rain should clear to the
east around 10Z with winds shifting to the west after sunrise then
to the north early afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

We have adjusted precip chances, mostly for the evening hours, as
the predicted shift northward of the band of rain by the hi-res
models is coming to fruition. We still expect some expansion
southward, but it does appear the highest rain chances will come
across the northern third of the forecast area. No other changes
were made at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

Forecast remains on track for increased rain chances tonight through
tomorrow morning.

The surface high pressure system that dropped todays cold front
across the area will start to push eastward this afternoon. As that
occurs surface winds will become southwesterly bringing back warmer
air and increased moisture. The moisture combined with isentropic
lifting and decent upper level lifting (from the right entrance
region of a strong upper level jet) will help keep our precip
chances alive this evening through early tomorrow morning. Models
are in agreement that the precip will start in the northern portions
of the CWA and then slowing fill in south. By daybreak tomorrow
most of the precip will come to an end. Totals continue to vary
across the FA but, up to a quarter of an inch of rain could fall
in some locations.

Tomorrow a cold front will drop across the region from the northwest
ushering out any left-over precipitation. This cold front won`t be
near as strong as todays. In fact, it will hardly be noticeable as
we warm into the upper 60s tomorrow.

Sunday, upper level southwesterly flow sets up across the region. A
decent low level jet will help moisture return to the area. At the
same time a dryline feature will develop across the CWA keeping the
majority of the moisture centered across the Rolling Plains.
Dewpoints in the 50s will be present in the Rolling Plains
while upper 30 dewpoints will persist across the South Plains.
Thus, on Sunday, the Rolling Plains will have the best shot at some
light precip, thanks to the upper level jet and lift from the
dryline. The dryline feature sticks around through Monday afternoon
before being pushed east by drier air. Monday afternoon the drier
air and downslope warming combined with increased surface winds will
create elevated fire weather conditions.

A backdoor cold front will move through the area early next week.
Currently, the GFS brings the front across the FA during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, lags
behind the GFS and brings the front through Wednesday morning.
Either way the front will definitely be through the area by
Wednesday afternoon creating highs in the upper 40s to near 50
Wednesday. The area will warm and dry during the latter part of next
week under southwest flow aloft.




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