Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 061120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WX EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS COURTESY
OF A CLOSED UA LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA OF CALI THAT IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONLY
WX FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE IS INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT THE SFC...SFC RIDGING CENTERED EAST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION...WHILST WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING
PROMOTES THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO VEER TO THE SW BY THIS
AFTN /AOA 10 MPH/. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS COUPLED WITH A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 50S. SFC
WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO THE W-SW BY TONIGHT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ON THE INCREASE...WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS THOUGH STILL CHILLY /20S/.

LONG TERM...

IN GENERAL A QUIET WEEK OF WEATHER IS IN STORE...ALTHOUGH A
PERSISTENT LOW-AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
AND ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE COULD
DISRUPT THINGS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING TO COME SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH RELATIVE TO RECENT WEATHER THIS EVENT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT. WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW OVER
BAJA CALIF THIS MORNING EJECT EWD BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIFT AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK INTO THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A COUPLE
OTHER PERIODS WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NO
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THAT FROM THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  23  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  24  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  25  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  26  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  27  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   50  27  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  28  51  36 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     54  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          51  29  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     52  29  59  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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