Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 132326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS TO LAY DOWN TO AOB 12 KTS WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AT OR
JUST ABOVE 12 KTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH SW TEXAS...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT MOISTURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
OVERALL A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE
TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH
AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOW TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM MID DAY INTO THE
EVENING. NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN A MORE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OVERNIGHT
HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...LOW 30S TO MID 40S. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK FRONTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY/S COULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
AND TEMPS WARMING ACCORDINGLY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LIFT WELL TO OUR
NORTH. IT DOES APPEAR THAT EVEN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SYSTEM GRADIENTS MAY TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAD TO A BREEZY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN
THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. A MINOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME MOISTURE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN...WITH
PERHAPS A FRONT IN PLAY AS WELL.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07


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