Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
311 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Ridging at the surface and aloft today has brought quiescent weather
to the forecast area with slightly cooler than average temps. Light
easterly winds this afternoon will gradually return to the south on
Friday as surface troughing develops across eastern New Mexico.
Temps should come up a bit, but highs will remain shy of 80 degrees
for most locations. Upper ridging will flatten somewhat over the
region, and forecast time-sections show increasing moisture aloft,
which should manifest itself in greater thickness and coverage of

The recent quiet pattern still looks to become shaken and stirred
by early next week as a vigorous upper cyclone pivots across the
southern Rockies. Days of steady southerly flow beginning Friday
will serve to chip away low level moisture deficits, but this
process looks too little too late for rain chances by Friday night
and Saturday despite an upper ridge eroding locally. Otherwise,
surface troughing will camp out in eastern NM through Monday with
southerly gradient winds increasing each day. Following a
resurgence in the upper ridge on Sunday and Monday, aggressive
height falls should overspread the region Monday night and Tuesday
in concert with an upper cyclone tracking east from the Great
Basin before lifting northeast. Although the latest iterations of
the GFS and ECMWF are more bullish with the speed of this system
and an accompanying Pacific cold front on Tue, historically we
tend to see the dryline assume a bit more westerly longitude when
such deep forcing looms upstream. As such, precip chances on Tue
were left intact over all but the western 1/4 of our domain. Basic
pattern recognition certainly fits a regional severe convective
event, particularly in our eastern zones nearest the low level
moist axis. If the upper cyclone tracks much farther south, then a
stout mid-level cold pocket could re-introduce PoPs from west-east
behind the Pacific front, but this is not likely at the moment.
Pending the track of the low and also the amount of post- frontal
drying and its impact on deep momentum transfer, post- frontal
westerly winds could become quite stout Tue afternoon ahead of a
relaxing gradient flow and deep drying thereafter.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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