000
FXUS64 KLUB 182041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  94  64  94  64 /  50  20  20  20  20
TULIA         65  93  68  95  67 /  40  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  69  95  69 /  40  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  71  96  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  95  71  96  70 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   69  95  70  97  69 /  20  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  96  69  97  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  93  70  98  72 /  30  20  20  10  10
SPUR          69  94  70  97  72 /  30  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     70  96  72  99  73 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23