Area Forecast Discussion
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218
FXUS64 KLUB 281730
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds expected through the TAF period. Small
potential for TS at KCDS after 06Z with a thunerstorm complex that
will move to the SSE down the central high plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist for the next 24 hours. Surface winds
will remain light and swing around from the north, through east,
to south by this evening. A t-storm complex is expected to move
across the eastern Texas Panhandle late tonight, and there is a
low chance that TSRA could threaten KCDS after 06 UTC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
At 3 am, the last dying remnants of a small t-storm cluster are
exiting the southern South Plains into the northern Permian Basin.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge centered over the 4-
corners and extending across nrn New Mexico into northwest Texas.
The ridge is forecast to expand slightly eastward today - resulting
in a bit more convective inhibition across the forecast area. We may
still be able to get a few storms to fire this afternoon across the
southern Rolling Plains, farthest away from the ridge`s influence.
Otherwise, we are looking at another hot day - temperatures should
be near or slightly warmer than yesterday`s highs which ranged from
lows 90s in the far southern TX Panhandle to near 100 in the
southern Rolling Plains. Tonight, we will turn our attention to the
north to Colo and Kansas where guidance indicates that a t-storm
complex will develop and then roll southeast into the eastern TX
Panhandle and western Okla early Friday morning. While the exact
track is uncertain, we could see some development along the outflow
running on the western flank of the complex. For now we will confine
our PoPs to the southeast TX Panhandle - closest to the most likely
track. The complex will likely be decreasing in intensity as the low-
level jet veers and weakens after midnight, but it could still pose
a strong wind threat if it remains well organized.

LONG TERM...
Chances of convection may not be totally kaput early this weekend
as models had been suggesting. The upper ridge settled to our west
will reposition to the east early next week. However, before this
occurs, lingering mid level moisture will rotate around the
northeast side of the upper ridge down into West Texas on Friday
and Saturday evenings. This will primarily favor the southwestern
Texas Panhandle for convection with storms initiating off of the
higher terrain of New Mexico and southeastern Colorado. By next
week, models are not inspiring confidence in the forecast. The
position of the upper ridge is somewhat in question and may make
the difference in the area observing any thunderstorms within a
monsoonal moisture plume mainly to the west of the area.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07/99/99



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