Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191128 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
528 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

VFR conditions in place all three TAF sites but KLBB will have
occasional IFR conditions as low clouds and fog have been reported
near the terminal but not over the TAF site. Any low ceilings or
fog will burn off mid-morning as a southwest wind of 20 to 30 kts
develops. This could result in some blowing dust at KLBB and KPVW
with brief MVFR conditions due to visibility restrictions. Wind
speeds will decrease after sunset but another round of low clouds
and fog will be possible at KLBB and possibly KCDS, but confidence
on when this could occur is too low to include at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

Impressive precipitable water anomalies as great as 250% of
normal were in place over much of the region this morning within
rich southerly flow. Unfortunately, saturated ascent processes
were rather scant with only a few elevated showers noted in our
southeast counties along the edge of a stout low level jet. This
activity should make a hasty departure east of Highway 83 before
daybreak ahead of another windy day for much of the region.
Amplifying downslope winds this afternoon will serve to focus a
modest dryline near or just east of our far eastern column of
counties. However, the environment immediately near the dryline
looks too hostile for thunderstorms given too much CINH and
copious high clouds. This theme should change tonight as the
dryline retreats onto the Caprock ahead of an upper impulse with
increased cyclonic SW flow, all accompanied by a subtropical jet
streak. Expectation is for thunderstorms (largely elevated in
nature) to develop toward sunset in the western Permian Basin
and expand NE into our segment of the Rolling Plains. Prospects
for severe in our region are very low given generally poor lapse
rates throughout the cloud-bearing layer, but this is not the case
farther south and east.

Southwest flow aloft remains intact on Tuesday in advance of a
sharp cP airmass expected to accelerate south into our region
Tuesday night. This front is already entering the OK Panhandle
this morning, but is progged to stall in the northern TX Panhandle
this afternoon before receiving new life on Tuesday. This front
presents an opportunity for widespread post-frontal stratus and
even freezing drizzle at times Wednesday morning before temps
rebound above freezing. Another SW flow upper impulse by early
Thursday is gaining more credibility among the global models and
06Z NAM for scattered to widespread precipitation. Bumped PoPs
upward region wide to reflect this trend, while also inserting
some freezing rain mention Thursday morning until the shallow cold
layer erodes. Confidence in accumulating ice is very low at this
time and will hinge upon the durability of the shallow cold air.

For Friday and Saturday, models and ensembles agree well in
minoring out a western CONUS trough as it overspreads the
southern High Plains. This may host additional PoPs both days
mainly off the Caprock before deeper and drier westerly flow
overwhelm the region on Sunday behind the trough.

With the recent application of a more flexible fire weather
guideline for many TX and OK NWS Offices, we have issued a Red
Flag Warning for Parmer, Castro and Swisher Counties today due to
strong SW winds combining with 80-90% ERC values. Although minimum
RH values are only expected to fall to around 30% in these areas,
the general lack of recent soaking rains north of a Muleshoe to
Plainview to Silverton line could foster wildfire growth
especially given the enhanced SW winds with gusts to 45 mph at


Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for



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