Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 220431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

MVFR CIGS will continue until the mid morning hours with possibly
some patchiness to the cloud deck. Gusty northerly winds will
continue through the daytime behind a cold front that moved
through earlier today.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

At 1930Z the CWA was in the midst of a battle of airmasses with the
dividing line roughly stretching from Hart to Ralls to Jayton. To
the northeast of the backdooring front reinforced by convective
outflow and low clouds temperatures were only in the in the upper
50s and 60s. On the other side of the front sunny skies and dry and
breezy downsloping winds have pushed temperatures well into the 80s.
However radar data and WTM observations show that the front was
continuing to make steady southwestward progress, and it will
quickly slip through the remainder of the South Plain through the
late afternoon and early evening hours. A tightening post-frontal
pressure gradient will support northerly to northeasterly winds
generally sustained at 20 to 30 mph this evening. Areas of low
clouds will fill in behind the front and likely persist into
Saturday morning before gradually breaking up. Strong CAA in the
wake of the front will cause temperatures to tumble into the lower
to middle 40s for much of the area, with upper 30s expected over the
northwestern zones. Even after midnight winds will remain breezy and
this should effectively keep any frost from developing. Saturday
will remain on the cool side as breezy northerly winds persist and
temperatures struggle to recover into the upper 50s northwest to low
to middle 60s in the Rolling Plains.

This weekend`s cool spell will be short-lived as we transition
back to a warm and breezy period. Upper level short wave ridging
on Monday will transition to near-zonal flow Tuesday and will
continue that way through Wednesday before an increasing amount
of cyclonic curvature and amplification to the flow develops
Thursday and Friday. However, that period late in the week is also
the period where the models are struggling with the evolution of
the western CONUS trough that is the source of the amplification.
Most solutions at this point keep the majority of the energy and
focus for precipitation to the north of the forecast area. The
exception at this time appears to be when the Pacific front moves
through the region at which time a period of thunder is possible,
currently looking to be Thursday night. In general the model blend
initialization looks fine for the period. The main exception will
be daytime wind speeds where a massage upwards was applied each
day in the Monday through Friday period.

Warm, dry and breezy conditions were creating elevated fire weather
across the western and central South Plains this afternoon. This
will quickly come to an end this evening as a cold front sweeps
through the remainder of the South Plains with gusty northeasterly
winds, much cooler air and relatively moist conditions in its wake.
A fire danger statement remains in effect for points roughly along
and west of the US-84 corridor until 7 pm...where the conditions
could support a heightened fire danger where residual stands of dry
grasses exist (intermixed with the rapidly greening fuels).




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