Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280239
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
939 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
A cold frontal boundary was already poised along our northern
boundary by mid evening, but was awaiting a stronger outflow-
enhanced shove that will bring the front through most of the area
between about 11 pm and 3 am Sunday. A small intense area of
thunderstorms across the northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles is
likely to produce enough outflow for surface winds to approach 30
mph or perhaps very briefly even stronger than 30 mph but overall
speeds should be declining within an hour or two of when they
come up initially. The latest short range guidance is similar to
earlier in the day with timing, and peak wind speeds mostly around
25 to 30 mph. Low level moisture also will climb behind the
front, and solutions remain consistent indicating potential for
brief low clouds lasting one to three hours later tonight, and
favoring the Rolling Plains. Solutions unfortunately remain
consistent as well with precipitation chances skipping across our
area late tonight and early Sunday morning. A cooler period, at
least, will follow. No changes to any forecast fields are required
this evening. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

AVIATION...
Winds will decrease this evening but will quickly pick up again
out of the north behind a cold front late tonight. There is still
a chance of MVFR CIGS moving into the KCDS terminal for a brief
period early Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
We are in the midst of another hot and dry day with 19Z temperatures
ranging from the "cool" middle and upper 80s across the southwest
Texas Panhandle to the toasty triple digits in parts of the Rolling
Plains. This is as we are positioned west of the dryline and south
of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary across the southern Texas
Panhandle. North of the front temperatures were only in the 70s and
lower 80s from the central Texas Panhandle northward into southwest
Kansas with 50s and 60s over the eastern plains of Colorado. Looking
at the bigger picture, a large upper low continues to spin across
Manitoba with a few shortwaves seen moving through the cyclonic flow
well south of the low center through the center of the CONUS. As
a couple of the disturbances, including one emerging from the
central Rockies, pivot by to our north a secondary push to the
front will charge out of eastern Colorado and western Kansas this
evening and sweep through the South Plains late tonight. Sustained
northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph will be common immediately behind
the FROPA, and our northwest zones could even briefly threaten or
venture into advisory levels (sustained at 31-39 mph). There is
some uncertainty on this as it may require an additional stronger
push from convective outflows over southeast Colorado (which may
happen) to boost speeds into advisory territory. Given this
uncertainty we have held off on issuing a wind advisory, but we
will watch through the evening hours and adjust if needed.
Regardless, the FROPA will be a dry one as it will have no
moisture to work with until it moves into the center part of the
state. Instead we could see a brief bout of post-frontal stratus
(as the better moisture will be behind the front) early Sunday,
but it will quickly clear with breezy northerly winds helping to
hold highs down into the 70s and 80s.

The cooler conditions, highs at or below average, will then persist
right on through most or all of next week. Early in the week rather
dry air behind tonight`s FROPA should keep the region dry. Scattered
convection originating over the higher terrain of New Mexico could
attempt to approach from the northwest by Monday evening, but the
less than favorable thermodynamic environment will likely
preclude the convection from surviving the journey into our
northwestern zones. However, this should change, perhaps as soon
as late Tuesday, as low-level moisture gradually returns and weak
but perturbed flow spreads in from the west. This will provide an
extended period of unsettled weather from the middle of next week
right on into Friday or Saturday. Relatively weak wind fields will
likely limit the overall storm organization though a few strong
to severe storms will undoubtedly visit the region. In addition,
fairly slow storm motions and high PWATS could support locally
heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds have been on the tame side this afternoon, but hot and dry
conditions coupled with occasionally gusty westerly winds will
still create elevated fire weather at times. A fire danger
statement remains in effect until 8 pm for spots on the Caprock. A
cold front will drop through late tonight shifting the winds to
the north. The gusty north winds following the front will provide
much cooler (below average) temperatures Sunday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/99



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