000
FXUS64 KLUB 042040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
240 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER EVENT HAS BEEN QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH
UNFOLD. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE WELL WITH NWP
AND THIS HELPS SOMEWHAT WITH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENINGS FORECAST
AS WELL. OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO WANE...OR AT
LEAST BECOME MORE SHOWERY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
BATCH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH OVER SRN AZ TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL VARY A FAIR BIT GIVEN THE PATH OF
INDIVIDUAL BANDS/SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE EXPECTATIONS OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL TO NEAR 2 INCHES. AS NORMAL...HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN
LOCALIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE--AS IS LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO HELP EASE TRAVEL CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. WE WILL SEE WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL ACT TO MAINLY
CRIMP THE WARMUP LEADING TO A SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING...FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SURFACE
TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY BUT
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  37  17  52 /  40   0   0   0
TULIA         15  36  18  50 /  40   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     15  36  18  50 /  50   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     18  36  19  50 /  60   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       18  36  19  50 /  60   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  37  20  49 /  60   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  36  20  49 /  60   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     17  36  20  53 /  50   0   0   0
SPUR          19  36  20  49 /  70   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     20  36  20  49 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

26/01