000
FXUS64 KLUB 060937
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...
WINTRY PRECIP AND RATHER CHILLY TEMPS ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...THOUGH WE SHALL SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF AN EWRD TRANSLATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS WRN NM THAT HAS SENT A 140+ KT 250 MB JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPS IN
THE TEENS...ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND OF COURSE UL SUPPORT HAS
RESULTED IN A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP. 830Z RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE LARGEST SWATH OF PRECIP /WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDS/ TO
BE LOCATED EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SLATON TO NEW MOORE LINE...WITH
LIGHTER BAND ECHOS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
WRN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ALL BELOW FREEZING PROFILE
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES AND SERN TX PANHANDLE...A RATHER SLIGHT WARM
NOSE /1 DEGREE CELSIUS OR LESS/ ACROSS THE CNTRL ZONES...AND THE
WARMEST WARM NOSE /AOA 2 DEGREES CELSIUS/ ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. AS SUCH...ONE WOULD BELIEVE THAT SNOW WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES AND SE TX PANHANDLE...A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WAS INDEED THE CASE WHICH WAS PROVEN BY
EARLIER RECEIVED REPORTS...A FEW PHONE CALLS TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
AND GOING OUTSIDE OF WFO LUBBOCK /PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AT THE WFO
LUBBOCK WAS SLEET/. IN REGARD TO ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE...THE
LIGHTEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES /AN ADDITIONAL 0.5
INCH OR SO OF SNOW/ AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR IMPINGING
ON KELP AND THUS WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES. 0.5-1.00 INCH OF SNOW AND ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
ZONES WITH 1.00-3.00 INCHES OF SNOW AND ICE PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS /LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDERNEATH BANDED PRECIP/.
TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS THIS MORNING. STAYING AT HOME IS ADVISED IF
APPLICABLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

AFTER SUNRISE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL COMMENCE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE CWA WHILST DRIER AIR BEARS DOWN ON THE REGION AND DOWNGLIDE
INCREASES...WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL BY PROGGED SOUNDING PROFILES
EXHIBITING TOP-DOWN DRYING. THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE DRIER AIR LAST AND HENCE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET
AND/OR SNOW THERE. ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ALL
DAY WHICH SUGGESTS PREVAILING CLOUD COVER...UNTIL AT LEAST THE
EVENING WHERE SOME LOCALES WILL SEE SCT DECKS. 850 MB TEMPS OF -8 TO
-10 DEGREES C WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORM TODAY /20S/.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER UA TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE PACIFIC NW ESE TO
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
CONCURRENTLY AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE NEARING THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS AND RENEWED
UPGLIDE...ARE SHOWN TO AID IN LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE /LOCATION OF THE BEST UPGLIDE/. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THE MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH A LACK OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THOUGH UPGLIDE COULD AID TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SAID AREAS...AS TEMPS DROP
INTO LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO BE OVER THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS UPSLOPE FLOW HOLDS MOISTURE IN
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS PROGGING MODEST LIFT AND GENERALLY
DRY MID LEVELS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
WILL RESULT IN A NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...AND WITH FCST LOWS
MOSTLY IN SINGLE DIGITS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE LOOK LIKELY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK EXITS EWD...BUT HOT ON ITS HEELS IS
ANOTHER ONE. THIS ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRY TO EJECT THE COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HOW SUCCESSFUL THIS WILL BE STILL UP
FOR DEBATE...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE RUNS. WILL TREND TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM BELOW MOS AGAIN THIS CYCLE. COLD AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.

A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO DEVELOP TOWARD MIDWEEK
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND. HOW WARM...HOW FAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW EARLY
RETURNS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH A COOLER TREND
NOTED IN PARTICULAR FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. FCST ALREADY BELOW
MOS SO FEW CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24   6  17  13  38 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         24   6  15  10  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     23   7  15  10  38 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     23   8  17  12  41 /  10  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       24   8  15  11  39 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   26  13  20  17  44 /   0  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    26  12  17  13  42 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     24   6  16  10  32 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          25   9  15  10  40 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     25  12  16  13  41 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ030>032-036>038-041>044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>029-033>035-039-040.

&&

$$

29/07