000
FXUS64 KLUB 281146
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
646 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH RECENT DEVELOPMENT
HAS COME WITHIN 10-20 NM OF KCDS. KCDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF A STORM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH CONFIDENCE
OF A DIRECT IMPACT REMAIN RATHER LOW. HENCE WE HAVE DECIDED TO
CARRY VCTS AT KCDS THROUGH 18Z...AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. KLBB
WILL HAVE THE HIGHER THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  64  86  63  84 /  40  50  40  30  40
TULIA         85  66  85  65  86 /  30  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     87  66  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       89  70  90  69  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   92  67  92  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  68  92  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     89  70  86  68  89 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          92  68  91  68  96 /  30  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  71  92  71  98 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23