000
FXUS64 KLUB 291028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK TO THE EAST FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES AND
SRN ROCKIES TODAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH EYES THEN
FOCUSING ON A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE SRN CALIF/BAJA CALIF
COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FCST AREA...THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING CAUSING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL
TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS
HIGHLY MODIFIED AND NOT REALLY COLD AT ALL. RESULT WILL BE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND FAVORING THE WARMER END
OF MOS GUIDANCE.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SEE MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGIN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY
WRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL TAKE A WHILE
WITH VERY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS INITIALLY IN PLACE...AND WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP AT
THE SFC TO BE CONFINED TO WRN ZONES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AND BE PRETTY LIGHT. STILL...MODELS ARE BECOMING PRETTY
INSISTENT IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND
WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE MIDDLE GROUND
METMOS NUMBERS. PRECIP PHASE OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE
NEAR THE STATE LINE NWD INTO THE EXTREME SRN PANHANDLE. MODEL
PROFILES TAKE MODEST MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT OVER A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH...SUGGESTING RAIN OR
SNOW TO BE PREFERRED DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF ICE. MOS TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN A BIT TOO COLD IN SIMILAR
SCENARIOS RECENTLY...SO WILL WARM THEM A BIT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
NUMBERS WHICH WILL PUT FCST LOWS RIGHT NEAR 32F FOR THIS AREA OF
CONCERN. WILL THUS RIDE THE FENCE WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DENVER CITY TO DIMMITT LINE AND ALL RAIN EAST OF
THERE AND WEST OF I-27 /NO POP MENTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE/.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE ENTIRE CWA TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP LEVELS FOR THIS
WINTER SEASON /BEGINNING DEC 1/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS AN AGGRESSIVE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAJA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW POISED ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...INITIAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING STILL LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER
HEALTHY RESISTANCE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A STOUT
RIDGE AXIS...SO A TIGHT W-E POP GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED
FOR THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BLOSSOM BY FRI NIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE. COUPLED WITH
DEEP ASCENT FROM INCREASING UL DIVERGENCE...SEE NO REASON NOT TO
KEEP BOOSTING POPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA
3/4 INCH.

GREATEST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP PHASES MAINLY IN OUR W-NW ZONES
WHERE INITIAL WET BULB COOLING SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SNOW AT
TIMES. MODEL SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEP WARM NOSE UNFOLDING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA TO
MORTON LINE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SREF PLUME
ENSEMBLES IS PUSHING CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT MOSTLY SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. OUTSIDE OF WET BULBING EFFECTS...
THERMAL PROFILES EAST OF THESE ZONES DON/T STAND TO GAIN MUCH IF
ANY GROUND FOR SNOW IN THIS SETUP OF DEEP MOIST SW FLOW VOID OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...SNOW IN/NEAR PARMER COUNTY
SHOULD EASILY ACCUMULATE BY FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BLO FREEZING.
DID BOOST SNOW TOTALS TO 4+ INCHES IN WRN PARMER COUNTY...BUT THE
KEY HERE IS THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SPARED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO GRASS AS MOST PAVED ROADS
REMAIN A BIT ON THE MILD SIDE. STILL...HIGH LIQUID CONTENT SNOW
CAN PRODUCE A SLUSHY LAYER ON ROADS ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP RATES
BECOME ENHANCED...SO LATER FORECASTS MAY PONDER AN SPS OR FULL-
BLOWN WINTER WX HEADLINE. OPTED FOR NOW TO RESTRICT THIS MENTION
TO THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...POPS ON SATURDAY WERE SKIMMED BACK A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AS THE PWAT AXIS EXITS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIFT WANES. THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH
MEANWHILE WILL GRAZE THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER ADEQUATE RE-
SATURATION OF THE PRECIP GROWTH ZONE ALOFT IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE SO POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. SIMILARLY...
POPS ON SUNDAY WERE LOWERED AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT LOOKING IDEAL
IN THIS TRANSITION TO DRIER NW FLOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRIVE A BLUE NORTHER INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUN COMPLETE WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS. A QUICK REBOUND TO MILD SW
WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MON BEFORE AN UNSETTLED NW FLOW SENDS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FROPA OUR WAY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE YET.
&&

$$

07/93