732
FXUS64 KLUB 261713
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1213 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Will send a quick update to account for recent trends.
Specifically, mid-level cloud cover across the southern tier of
the forecast area is thinning faster than expected. However,
satellite trends suggest a northward movement to clouds over the
Permain Basin, so there may be a tick back upward for that area
later today. Increase in insolation has resulted in a quicker
increase in temperatures. Hi-res models support nudging forecast
highs up a bit. Minor adjustments will be made to wind, dew point,
and humidity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR will persist through the forecast period with occasionally
breezy northeast winds later this afternoon at all three
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Current IR satellite as of 3 am shows mid-level clouds beginning to
clear over the southwest Texas Panhandle as we begin to feel the
effects of weak ridging aloft throughout today. Cloud cover will
ultimately determine high temps across the CWA this afternoon,
though all locations will stay below seasonal norms for this time of
year. Our northern counties will see the most sunshine and should
climb into the low to mid 70s while our southern counties may only
see some late day sun if at all and could struggle to climb out of
the upper 60s into the low 70s. Light and variable early morning
winds will be come breezy out of the northeast by mid afternoon
across the CWA and ease diurnally by early evening. We`ll also
see more cooler temps tomorrow night into early Tuesday where
clouds continue to clear out.

LONG TERM...
West Texas will be place between two storm systems early Tuesday.
The first should be located over the NRN Great Lakes with the
second over Baja California. An arcing ridge will be present from
Texas into the Great Basin thence SWWD into NRN California. The
ridge will become more meridional by mid week as the Baja low gets
caught up in the polar jet to the north resulting in a glancing
blow to our part of the country though the ridging will persist.
By this weekend, another storm system comes into the Pac NW
resulting in more zonal flow.

Overall, conditions are expected to remain dry for the upcoming
week.  The blends are once again overzealous with precipitation and
until there exist a more clear picture of a pattern which will
generate much in the way of storms, will keep things dry.  Another
frontal boundary looks to make it in on Wednesday though this looks
more like a back door system for us.  It should knock temps back
into the 70s after topping out well into the 80s on Wednesday.
We could see some fog behind the front on Thursday but will refrain
from any mention ATTM. Thereafter, things look quiet until perhaps
Monday of next week when both the ECM and GFS advertise the dryline
becoming active.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07