Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS64 KLUB 281117
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ENTIRE CWFA WITH LITTLE EFFORT.  WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ON THE ANEMIC SIDE AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED /BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO/ BUT IMPORTANT THING IS THAT IT WILL
FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE AUTUMN TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE THINGS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION /ALOFT FROM THE NW AND FROM THE NE AT THE
SFC./  GIVEN THE FAST INITIATION OF RETURN FLOW OUT WEST...THIS
SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE
TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE UP TOWARD CHILDRESS WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY.

LONG TERM...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALSO SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH READINGS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MODEST
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND
IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A RESULT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION FOR NOW...AS THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS SOMEWHAT REMOTE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND...WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS.  AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALITIES CAN
BE DRAWN.  FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE ENTITIES...SENDING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND LEAVING BEHIND A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH THAT MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH...AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  STILL...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIGGING TROUGH TO
OUR WEST SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION MENTION IS WARRANTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  36  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  41  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  40  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  42  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  43  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  41  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  44  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          69  43  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  47  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.