566
FXUS64 KLUB 091741
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Very warm temperatures continue across the region today through
  Thursday with slightly cooler conditions expected this weekend
  and next week.

- Daily thunderstorm chances through early next week, mainly
  during the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Not much change to the upper level flow over our region for today.
An upper high over the Desert Southwest will flatten and expand
latitudinally over the span of today as a trough ejects from the
Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. However, this
expansion will not effect the upper flow or heights over the region.
Can expect temperatures in the 90s by later this afternoon as
falling pressures and increasing thicknesses aid in warming.
Otherwise, conditions will be dry the rest of today. Surface flow
will remain southerly through this evening however, will shift to
the southwest overnight as lee surface troughing develops. Winds are
expected to shift back from the south and become slightly breezy
tomorrow as the surface trough expands over eastern New Mexico.
Tomorrow is looking to be the hottest day of the week as pressures
fall slightly increasing the already warm temperatures into the mid
to upper 90s for most of the region. Southerly upslope winds and an
upper trough moving through the Great Plains could bring shower and
thunderstorm chances tomorrow evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Troughing over the Pacific Northwest will help to flatten the upper
high that has been stalled over the Southwest for some time now. As
the center of this high will shift much farther west, it will allow
for more shortwave troughs to have an influence over our area. As
such, combined with moist SSE surface flow bringing in Gulf
moisture, a more active pattern is expected this weekend into early
next week. A shortwave late Thursday into early Friday morning will
lead to some scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.
Otherwise, elevated storm chances will be in store for the weekend,
mainly during the evening hours as more potent shortwaves/weak cold
fronts pass through the area. Upper ridging will help curtail most
precipitation chances Monday. However, more waves moving through
beginning Tuesday afternoon looks to bring a return of the active
pattern by mid next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Southerly
winds will remain light through the day before shifting to the
southwest overnight. Winds should shift back from the south and
become breezy through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10