Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS64 KLUB 262016
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Upper trough axis from 300-250 mb extended from the eastern TX
Panhandle southwest to the Davis Mountains. Mid-level moisture has
remained more resilient ahead of this trough, mainly over the
eastern Permian Basin where numerous diurnal storms are noted. This
convection will continue to make strides into our far southeast
zones this afternoon, however there is an obvious instability
void/lack of Cu evident north of these areas which should greatly
hinder progress of these storms north of Highway 82. Farther west,
subsidence behind the trough should keep convection suppressed to
mostly stable Cu, but have inserted a broad mention of isolated
storms through tonight as water vapor reveals additional lift and re-
moistening upstream within additional cyclonic flow. This flow
should flatten and trend a bit more anticyclonic on Sat, but with
such negligible height rises it appears that lingering moisture and
favorable lapse rates could easily encourage spotty storms. Unlike
recent days, less interference from low to mid clouds should allow
for warmer max temps especially on the Caprock.

.LONG TERM...
High across the southeastern US will stay pretty much in-place
during the initial extended through it`s westward reach will
vary and shift westward late next week. A trough will exist,
Sunday morning, from nrn MB into the Desert SW. A weakness in the
high will linger along the middle Texas coast through the weekend.
This will place us under the influence of southwesterly flow aloft
through the weekend. However, by Monday, we`ll see ridging build
into the central CONUS as the the Texas low hangs around south
Texas. The southeastern high will then move westward into the
Southern Plains by mid week and sit there for the remainder of the
extended.

Saturday and Sunday continue to display indications of scattered
showers and thunderstorms with Sunday being a bit more favored at
this point thanks to favorable jet max positioning to our NW.  All
in all, the models continue to be much too wet in terms of
coverage though the general trend toward favoring storms in the
area is on point. Precipitation is indicated across the CWFA just
about every 6 hour period. We will see our winds shift around to
the east which should keep low level moisture plentiful. In
essence, we will see surge after surge of higher theta-e air
advecting into West Texas. Given the weakly forced nature of the
convection and its dependence on day-to-day affects which are
inherently not handled well by guidance, will continue to
advertise low to moderate pops through mid-week with drying
thereafter as the ridge builds in.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/26



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.