Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 020435
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
TS THAT MOVED ACROSS FM ERN NM SOLIDLY IN DISSIPATION STATE AND
ARE UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT INTACT TO EITHER KPVW OR KLBB. INITIATION
FOR TS TUESDAY AFTN WOULD BE ALONG A KCDS TO KPVW AND KLBB LINE IF
THEY ARE ABLE TO DO SO...A BIG IF ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAN
TAFS THIS FCST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE
CONVECTION THAT HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE WAS MOVING IN. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS LIKELY PRODUCED SOME SMALL HAIL IN SPOTS...THOUGH THE
THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE COLD POOLS
CONGLOMERATE. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR THE ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED TS ERN NM WILL MAKE A RUN AT KPVW AND KLBB THIS
EVENING...BUT ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT.
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OR ADVECTION INTO THE FCST AREA LOOKING UNLIKELY ATTM AS WELL.
SOUTH TO SSE WINDS NEAR 12KT OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE SOME TUESDAY
AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TILTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...NWP HAS BEEN HINTING AT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF NEW MEXICO AND MOVING INTO TEXAS
THIS EVENING. CONSISTENCY WITH TODAYS RUNS IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
YESTERDAY...ABOUT A 50 PCT YES RATE...AND AS HISTORY SHOWS...A
SYSTEM DID MOVE OUT OF SE/CO NE/NM INTO THE PANHANDLE. CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO GET GOING UP ON THE RATON MESA SOUTHWARD TO LAS
VEGAS AND GIVEN THE REGIME...THE INHERITED CHC POPS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK. PRIMARY NOCTURNAL CONERN WILL BE LOW-END SEVERE HAIL AND
60 MPH WIND GUSTS AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

LONG TERM...
WITH ANDRES CHURNING IN THE SE PACIFIC THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE STRONG CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THE PATTERN TRANSLATES
THERMALLY AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS IS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF AND MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE
CONTENT VERY WELL ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE HEAVY MAY RAINFALL.
WILL CONTINUE MORE PLAUSIBLE AND COOLER FORECAST TREND USED BY
PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND THE SUPERBLEND FOR THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF US...IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S.

BEYOND SEASONAL WARMTH RETURNING TO THE AREA THERE ISNT MUCH DETAIL
TO DISCUSS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW WILL STEER AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND LEAN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIP DEVELOPING IN
OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE LONGTERM. GIVEN STRONG MODEL CONSISTENCY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FEEL CONFIDENT IN HOW PATTERN EVOLVES THIS WEEK.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THOUGH...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
CUTOFF LOW ABSORBING BOTH TROPICAL SYSTEMS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE REALIZED DOWN STREAM AT OUR LATITUDE AS THE
ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  90  56  93 /  60  10   0   0
TULIA         59  88  59  91 /  30  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     60  88  59  90 /  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     61  90  59  94 /  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       61  90  60  92 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  92  59  95 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    61  92  59  95 /  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  90  63  91 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          62  90  61  90 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  90  63  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/23/07



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.