000
FXUS64 KLUB 081720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NRLY WIND SPEEDS PERSISTED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF
20-25 KTS OCCURRING. WILL EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINATION BY THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CLOUD DECKS EXISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES...THOUGH LATEST
METARS SHOWED CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT. KLBB WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW SUIT SHORTLY. WILL SEE SKC TONIGHT WHILST NRLY WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL -RA/-SN LAST NIGHT. WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
ATTM.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER A RATHER TOASTY EARLY MARCH DAY YESTERDAY...IT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR EVER
SINCE. THESE STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING OFF MORE
NOTABLY THIS EVENING.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ENOUGH THAT A
FEW FLAKES COULD EVEN MIX IN...THOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. INSTEAD...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BIFURCATE TODAY WITH A
BULK OF THE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS LINGERS OVERHEAD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE
WANES...SO WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER COULD LINGER PAST 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. WE DID DECREASE AND TRIM POPS THIS MORNING...THOUGH WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A MINIMAL SHOWER MENTION ROUGHLY NORTH OF A TULIA TO
PADUCAH LINE FROM 12-18Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WE EXPECT ABUNDANT LOW-CLOUDS TO
FILL IN AND LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
THINNING AND LIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF SOME INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A
COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...
THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MX INTO SRN TX SUN AND
MON...AND ON INTO THE NW GULF TUESDAY. WITH WEAK SHTWV RIDGING
OVER WEST TEXAS...WE SHOULD SEE QUIET WX...WITH HIGH TEMPS
WARMING FROM THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...TO 70S AND 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THOUGH...WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SWD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
DRY...WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BE RUSHING SWD TOWARD THE AREA AND COULD ARRIVE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOLING AND MOISTENING
TREND POSSIBLY DIMINISHING THE FIRE THREAT FOR SOME AREAS. IT WILL
BE COOLER WED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT LIKELY DRY AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT
REMAINS FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MAY CUT OFF AND SLOWLY DRIFT FOR A TIME INTO THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GETTING PICKED UP A WAVE TO THE NORTH. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS BUT IF IT WERE TO MOVE ACROSS WTX LATE THU/FRI PER THE
ECMWF IT MIGHT INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FRONT...BUT LIKELY
WEAKER THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  27  61  32  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         48  28  62  32  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  28  62  32  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  30  63  32  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  29  63  34  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  30  62  34  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  30  62  34  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     48  30  63  35  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  30  62  36  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  31  61  35  78 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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