


Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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939 FXUS64 KLUB 280759 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Warmer temperatures are expected today with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue across most of the region each day Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Today will be similar to yesterday with warm temperatures and chances of showers and thunderstorms for the latter half of the day. Upper ridging persists over southern portions of the CONUS including West Texas. Increasing heights and thicknesses from the ridge will slightly warm temperatures today compared to yesterday with 90s expected this afternoon for most of the region. Substantial mid to upper level moisture continues as the monsoonal moisture plume persists. Subsidence from the upper ridge will be interrupted by a weak shortwave trough tracking over the region this afternoon. Breezy southwesterly surface flow is expected through this afternoon keeping dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds should shift to the south to southeast by the late afternoon and are expected to weaken after sunset. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return this afternoon and evening once convective temperatures are reached with sufficient moisture and weak upper lift from the shortwave. However, there is only slight chances (15 to 20 percent) as there is little to no low-level forcing. With the lack of forcing and instability, any thunderstorms that do develop are expected to be sub-severe except for some isolated strong wind gusts and heavy rain. The upper disturbance and moisture are expected to persist through tonight keeping shower and thunderstorm chances going through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 By Sunday, the upper air pattern will finally start to become a bit more progressive as the persistent ridging aloft over the Gulf coast begins to flatten in response to deepening upper level shortwave troughing over the Canadian Prairies. Despite this evolution, a separate upper ridge axis will remain in place over the Four Corners with another relatively warm day expected as a result, with the daytime hours on Sunday currently looking fairly dry as the monsoonal moisture plume temporarily thins. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then increase again Sunday night through Monday night as the upper trough axis associated with the aforementioned shortwave continues to deepen and extend southward through most of the central CONUS. Models are in good agreement that this will deepen a surface trough axis which will extend from eastern NM into northwest OK, which combined with a resurgence of monsoonal moisture should result in another period of scattered showers and storms over the TX Panhandle and South Plains regions. Pinpointing the exact timing of this activity is difficult at this lead time so will continue to maintain broad PoPs through the Sun-Mon period, with a majority of guidance still favoring the Monday night into early Tuesday timeframe as the period most likely to see relatively widespread showers and storms. Severe weather will again be unlikely with weak shear magnitudes, but deep moisture could support locally heavy rainfall. Tuesday through the rest of next week, models are in fairly good agreement that the upper ridge axis initially over the Four Corners will shift eastward and center over the MS Valley as deeper upper troughing establishes over CA and the PacNW. The resulting southerly flow aloft over our area will open the door for a fetch of tropical Pacific moisture to move overhead which will then likely linger for several days, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms set to continue through most of next week as a result. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Some SHRA or an isolated TS is possible essentially anywhere over the next 24 hours, but probability of terminal impacts is too low for specific TAF mention at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30