000
FXUS64 KLUB 031122 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
522 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A THIN CIRRUS CLOUD DECK. WIND
MAY BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BEFORE
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY IS STARTING OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS A
WEST WIND IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A THIN VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER.  THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO THE UPPER
30S.  THE RELATIVELY MILD START AND A BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WIND SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH ALMOST 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALSO PROVIDE
SOME INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  WIND SPEEDS WILL FLIRT WITH
THE BREEZY RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH AND SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH.

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOWERING DEWPOINT
VALUES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT...AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
MAY RAISE A BIT OF A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.  NEGATIVES ARE THERE
STILL IS A BIT OF MOISTURE IN FUELS LEFT FROM THE SNOW LAST WEEK
ALONG WITH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES STILL BELOW LEVELS THAT
BRING CONCERN.  WILL BRING THIS UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BUT FEEL THAT RANGELAND FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SPECIFIC PRODUCT.

FOR TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HOLD LOWS UP A BIT BUT NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THIS MORNING.  SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRY TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS WHICH MAY ALSO HELP TO HOLD
MIN TEMPERATURES UP.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO
SO.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FIRST BATCH OF COOLER AIR LOCKED UP NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LAST MORNING WITH
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...THE IMPENDING WINTER BLAST LOOKS TO BE EVEN
COLDER THAN OUR LAST BOUT SUFFERED TWO WEEKS AGO...BUT PRECIP-WISE
IT CERTAINLY APPEARS WE/LL SEE A MORE ABBREVIATED EVENT IN BOTH
DURATION AND INTENSITY GIVEN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH THIS GO
AROUND. STILL...ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW ARE A GOOD BET BEFORE
THIS STORM IS SENT PACKING BY EARLY FRIDAY.

ARCTIC FRONT WAS FOUND OOZING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING EARLY
THIS MORNING. LATEST MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY VERIFIED ITS PROGRESSION
WELL SO FAR...SO CONFIDENCE SURROUNDING FROPA HERE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY TOMORROW EVENING HAS IMPROVED.

INITIALLY FLAT/ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND PULL IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT
COMPLETE WITH THICKENING CIRROSTRATUS. MODELS HAVE EASED OFF ON
THE ARCTIC FRONT NOSING ITS WAY INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES BY
NOON...BUT WE/RE MORE RELUCTANT TO BELIEVE THIS DESPITE THEIR
SUCCESS WITH THE FRONT THUS FAR TODAY. SO...A HEALTHY MAX TEMP
GRADIENT REMAINS IN STORE WITH LOWER 50S AROUND CHILDRESS TO LOWER
70S IN BROWNFIELD. AS WE SAW TWO WEEKS AGO...MODELS JUST ONE DAY
BEFORE FROPA PROVED 6 HOURS TOO SLOW...SO UNTIL MODELS CAN
CONSISTENTLY PROVE OTHERWISE WE/RE BETTING ON LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
OVER ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING ENSUES
LATE WED AFTN...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FACE LESS RESISTANCE AND
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WHOLE OF THE CWA. POST-
FRONTAL MOISTENING VIA MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE COLD DOME NOW LOOKS
MORE DELAYED COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS...SO PRECIP MENTION HAS
BEEN PUSHED BACK UNTIL AFTER 06Z THU WHILE STILL FAVORING OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DEEP ASCENT LOOKS MODEST AT BEST...BUT WILL
RECEIVE SOME CONTRIBUTION AT TIMES FROM AN IMPRESSIVE 140 KNOT
UPPER JET WHOSE RRQ FAVORS OUR CWA. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A WINTRY
MIX WITH SOME LIGHT ICING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
MISS OUT ON PRECIP ALTOGETHER EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN AGGRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL DRYING...HENCE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THESE
AREAS.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LIFT
WILL BE BOLSTERED AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK BETWEEN
0.6 AND 0.8 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT THE
REMNANT WARM NOSE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE ERODED FROM WEST
TO EAST THU NIGHT...SO A TRANSITION FROM A MESSY MIX TO
PREDOMINANTLY ALL SNOW STILL LOOKS GOOD. SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS
HEAVIEST ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES /INCLUDING OFF
THE CAPROCK/ WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS PROGGED IN THE 700-400MB
LAYER WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH A GOOD DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. A COUPLE BANDED SNOW SEGMENTS COULD EASILY SET UP
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AND PRODUCE OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A FEW
HOURS TIME. HPC WWD SNOW TOTALS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT HAVE GONE A
TOUCH ABOVE THIS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. STILL A LITTLE EARLY
TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL CONSIDER THIS OPTION.

AGGRESSIVE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE RACES IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT EVEN THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE OFF
IN STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS. TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS BACK SEVERAL DEGREES
BUT AM NOT EAGER TO DO THE SAME WITH LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. GFS SOUNDINGS ON SATURDAY LOOK IDEAL FOR
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE DRYING AND MILDER WESTERLY WINDS
FINALLY RETURN ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THIS LATTER TROUGH. DID BLEND
MORE OF THE ECMWF INTO OUR WINDS AND TEMPS BEYOND THIS TIME AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC REINFORCEMENT APPEARS TO BE GEARING UP CONSIDERING
A STAGNANT L/W RIDGE INTO ALASKA AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...IN OTHER WORDS A TEXTBOOK COLD PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE MIDDLE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  35  63  23  26 /   0   0   0  20  40
TULIA         71  36  58  23  26 /   0   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     73  38  62  25  27 /   0   0   0  20  30
LEVELLAND     77  40  69  30  31 /   0   0   0  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  40  68  28  30 /   0   0   0  30  50
DENVER CITY   75  46  72  35  38 /   0   0   0  20  50
BROWNFIELD    79  45  71  31  33 /   0   0   0  30  50
CHILDRESS     78  38  53  26  29 /   0   0   0  20  30
SPUR          81  44  65  28  30 /   0   0   0  30  50
ASPERMONT     80  46  66  29  31 /   0   0   0  30  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14