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FXUS64 KLUB 270753
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
253 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Curved upper level ridge extending from Texas to the Great Basin
will slowly become more meridional over the next 24 hours.  A
respectable low continues to spin across Baja California.  This low
is interacting with TC Roslyn in the Pacific and helping to stream
upper level moisture into the region.  The Baja low will drift NW
into SRN California today as the ridge shifts westward.  To our
northeast, another low is centered over Lake Superior and will dive
southward today ending up near the southern tip of Lake Michigan by
Wednesday morning.

Shower activity continues to our south, moving north, but it is
fighting drier air near the surface.  Surface dewpoints have jumped
INVOF this activity though observations indicate that the cloud
bases are above 13kft.  As such, a dry day is anticipated.  Clouds
should thin after sunrise with some decent sunshine before high
clouds edge back in this evening.  Winds will be light and variable
with speeds generally less than 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...
Our pattern for the remainder of the week and weekend will be under
the influence of a relatively short lived Omega Block that begins
breaking down late Sunday in lieu of zonal flow to begin next week.
The next system to bring any appreciable change in the forecast will
arrive by the middle of next week.

High temps peak Wednesday as surface high pressure sets up under a
ridge axis positioned across eastern NM. The slow rolling closed low
over the Ohio River Valley will push a back door surface cold front
south across our CWA late Wednesday into Thursday that will drop our
highs back down below normal for the remainder of the work week
before gradually climbing through the weekend up to seasonal norms.

Scaled POPS back on Saturday given weak signal for precip in both
GFS and ECMWF. Otherwise there`s good agreement in operational
output through the weekend. ECMWF has a deeper and more dynamic
trough for the Pacific system next week that could result in some
strong winds at the surface, while the GFS indicates more of a
glancing blow. Nonetheless we will have very pleasant Fall
weather through the weekend before worrying about next week.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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