Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 282027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL EXISTED OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WAS A RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS STILL MAKING SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION IS
STILL FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH.
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES. THIS HAS YIELDED AROUND 500-
1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY. CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LOW OWING TO A LACK OF SHEAR.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MARGINALLY
DECREASE AS A RESULT OF THIS. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW...THIS WILL PRESENT A
SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG OR NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TRY AND BREAK OUT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES ON A FEW OF THE AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHERE AND WHEN THE CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED SO PULLED DOWN ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO UNDER 15
PERCENT. SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO ALSO KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S ON THE SOUTH
PLAINS TO UPPER 90S ROLLING PLAINS INSTEAD OF 80S AND LOW/MID 90S
RESPECTIVELY.

JORDAN

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  61  91 /  30  10   0   0
TULIA         63  90  61  91 /  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     64  90  63  91 /  40  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     65  89  64  92 /  40  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       67  91  65  93 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  89  63  92 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  90  65  93 /  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  95  68  97 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          69  93  67  96 /  20  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     72  96  70  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14



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