Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 261708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z AROUND
LBB...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  61  86  60 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         64  92  64  89  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  89  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  92  69  90  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       68  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   65  92  69  91  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  93  70  91  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  97  71  93  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  95  73  94  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  98  73  95  70 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51






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