Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

FXUS64 KLUB 182330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

A surface low pressure trough across the area overnight will
maintain low level southerly flow, gradually veering more
southwesterly early Sunday. Very shallow moisture will spread
northward overnight with short range solutions still indicating
potential for fog development southwest of KLBB and KPVW near or a
little before daybreak. We have retained the previous TAF
temporary groups, in addition to the lighter fog mention for
KCDS. Should fog develop early Sunday, there is also a chance
visibilities could at least briefly drop quite low for KLBB and
KPVW. Hope short range trends will help clarify this in time for
the 06Z package. Mixing will be strong and early Sunday, so any
fog likely will be gone within an hour or two after daybreak.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

After a bout of low clouds and fog this morning near full insolation
combine with light breezes were providing a beautiful mid-March
afternoon. An upper level disturbance approaching through New Mexico
was generating scattered mid-high clouds that were spreading in from
the west, while some boundary layer cumulus has recently developed
in the Rolling Plains. There remains a remote chance of a late day
shower/storm across the far northeast zones where instability will
be greatest and CIN lowest, though with no clear low-level
forcing/convergence and only minimal upper support have kept PoPs
around 10 percent there, with no explicit mention in the weather
grids. The recently developed southerly winds will continue
overnight and this, along with decent, albeit shallow, moisture will
result in a mild night with lows mostly in the 50s. We could also
see another bout of low clouds and fog on the Caprock Sunday
morning though veering low-level flow calls this more into
question. Given the uncertainty we only inserted a patchy fog
mention at this point in the 09-15Z window.

Any clouds/fog should quickly burn off Sunday morning with plenty of
sun and breezy southerly to southwesterly winds in the afternoon
propelling the region to record highs. Temperatures will likely top
out around 90 on the Caprock, with low to middle 90s over the lower
elevations. The current records for March 19th at Lubbock and
Childress are 87 degrees (1995) and 91 degrees (2004), respectively.
A dryline stretching from northeast to southwest across the center
of the CWA will sharpen during the afternoon hours, though it
will probably remain capped locally. However, further west,
isolated high based convection will likely develop over the higher
terrain of southeast New Mexico. This activity may make a run for
the TX/NM line during the evening, though it will most likely
come up short of the CWA, drying up while traversing the dusty New
Mexico plains.

NWP solutions are in reasonable run-to-run and model-to-model
agreement through the middle of next week.  And even though run-to-
run consistency is fair to good through the end of next week, it
remains rather disappointing between the individual models,
particularly between the GFS and ECMWF.

An upper level ridge will propagate across the central U.S. on
Monday followed by another on Wednesday. This will allow
temperatures to be well above normal for Monday and Tuesday. The
approach and passage of the second upper level ridge will help drive
a cold front south across the area Tuesday, becoming diffuse just to
the south of the area on Wednesday.  Moisture will begin to return
northward across the area Wednesday night as a low-level jet
develops and strengthens over west Texas in advance of approaching
southwestern U.S. upper level trough.  The dryline will make a
return early Thursday morning likely near the TX/NM state line
before quickly mixing east across the forecast area Thursday
afternoon.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
along dryline, mainly off the caprock, with an increased fire
weather threat to the west in the wake of the dryline. Temperatures
should be near to above normal through the end of the week. Drier
conditions return on Friday. JH

Elevated fire weather will develop west of the dryline across the
southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains Sunday
afternoon. RH values will dip to around 10 percent though the
westerly breezes should generally remain below critical levels.
Hence, an Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed for tomorrow




99/99/05 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.