014
FXUS64 KLUB 112323
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage this evening
   through early Saturday morning.

 - Heavy rainfall and flooding are possible threats through the
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Dry conditions will hold on for the remainder of this afternoon,
however low level SSE flow combined with an upper wave will bring
the potential for showers and thunderstorms this evening. The
general consensus at this time is for an MCS to reach the far SW
Panhandle around 10 PM tonight and gradually become more
disorganized through the overnight hours as it tracks southeast.
Storms are mostly expected to remain sub-severe, with locally heavy
rain being the main threat. Another upper trough and its associated
surface cold front will move through the area on Saturday. The
heaviest precipitation axis looks to occur across the southern South
and Rolling Plains into the evening. Moisture parameters are
conducive to potentially heavy rainfall (PWATS of 1.5-2 inches),
however some uncertainty still remains as this aforementioned precip
axis is showing a more southerly trend on latest guidance. More
details in the long-term section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The evolution of the overall pattern generally remains the same for
the upcoming week. As a result, numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are still expected Saturday night with chances
lingering through the weekend with periodic chances through much of
the forecast period.

An upper level trough will be overhead at the start of the long term
period with precipitation likely ongoing. This trough is now progged
to take a slight shift to the south/southeast Sunday with rain
chances shifting that direction as well. The upcoming forecast will
reflect that shift as well with a dry forecast now for the
northwestern corner of the area and the highest PoPs and QPF
shifting to the southeast as well, but with high chance PoPs and
potential for locally heavy rainfall lingering across the southern
Rolling Plains and adjacent areas to the north and west. Beyond
Sunday the trough will get shunted slowly westward while also
undergoing some weakening as the subtropical high along the Gulf
Coast attempts to expand westward. Slight chance to chance PoPs,
mainly diurnally-driven look reasonable at least through Thursday
given proximity of trough and associated mid-level moisture while
the pattern also suggests temperatures near to slightly above normal
for highs and near to a bit above normal for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Prospects for TSTMs remain forecast at the terminals tonight,
with the best potential at KPVW as a decaying TSTM complex moves
towards the I-27 corridor. A temporary wind shift to the northwest
may occur at KLBB and KPVW ahead of the collapsing storms, and
timing will be better refined in the next TAF cycle. TSTM mention
has been withheld at KCDS and KLBB due to low confidence in storms
impacting the terminals. Lingering rain showers are then forecast
at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW through late tomorrow morning along with
VFR overcast. It is possible that some reductions into MVFR occur
tomorrow morning, but confidence on this remains low. TSTM chances
are forecast to return mainly to the southeast of KLBB tomorrow,
with VFR currently forecast to prevail for the scope of the TAF
period outside of convection.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...09