000
FXUS64 KLUB 060354 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
954 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP MOVING NE ACROSS THE FAR
SRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS AT 930 PM SEEMS TO BE MAINLY COMPOSED
OF SLEET PER RADAR AND SFC REPORTS. WE DO EXPECT SOME SNOW TO MIX
IN WITH THE SLEET AND WE COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY /4+
INCH/TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN HAS LIKELY JUST ABOUT EXITED THE AREA AS THE
ELEVATED WARM-LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING EL PASO...WITH LIFT PROBABLY MAXIMIZED
ACROSS THE CFWA FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
THE LATEST MODEL PROGS DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW /AND SLEET/ TOTALS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FROM EASTERN CROSBY
COUNTY EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH COTTLE AND KING COUNTIES.
FARTHER NORTH INTO HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES...DRIER AIR MAY
LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AND FARTHER WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW APPEARS VERY LOW.
THUS...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WINTER STORM WARNING OUT OF
LUBBOCK...HOCKLEY..COCHRAN...YOAKUM AND TERRY COUNTIES...REPLACING
IT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING IN
LYNN COUNTY TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE AND FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
TO THE EAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...BEGINNING ANYTIME AFTER ROUGHLY 02Z. MAY
SEE SLEET AT THE ONSET BEFORE LIGHT SNOW TAKES OVER QUICKLY AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT EACH SITE WITH IFR CEILINGS A POSSIBILITY UNDERNEATH ANY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CDS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...BUT LBB SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF A LBB TO CDS
LINE WITH ICE/SNOW COVERED RUNWAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

SHORT TERM...
BUSY DAY HERE AT THE WFO THOUGH THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS MORE TO COME. 120KT JET
MAX IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SONORA INTO AZ THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH SLOWLY ROTATING ABOUT AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH VERY COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. WV IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN VIGOROUS LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CHIHUAHUA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SHARPLY NEAR THE BIG BEND WITH
BROAD LIFT STILL INDICATED BACK TO THE JUNCTION OF AZ/NM/SONORA.

NWP HAS STRUGGLED WITH BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
THOUGH IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HRRR/4KM WRF NMM/TTU WRF ENSEMBLE
PRODUCTS LOOK TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION FROM THIS
MORNING. THESE /AND OTHERS/ DO SUGGEST ANOTHER RESPECTABLE ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
WARM NOSE HAS COOLED...AMDAR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER AROUND 8000 MSL. GIVEN THIS INSIGHT...CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR PRECIP TYPE REMAINS LARGELY INTACT. THE WARM
LAYER IS OBVIOUSLY DEEPER AND WARMER TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE RAISED
POPS TONIGHT FROM LIKELY NW TO CATEGORICAL SE WHERE THE BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEST TO
EAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE 9AM. SPEAKING OF TOTALS...CURRENT FCST THINKING
CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THOUGH ADDITIONAL
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST.
TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT. 2" SOIL TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE AND GIVEN THE
PROTRACTED NATURE OF THE COLD SNAP...REFREEZING WILL BE AN ISSUE
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY.

HAVE CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAW TODAY. OTHERWISE...IF YOU ARE ABLE TO
STAY HOME...PLEASE DO. THERE ALREADY BEEN HUNDREDS OF WRECKS TODAY
WITH MANY ROLLOVERS AND AT LEAST ONE FATALITY. THIS IS NOT THE RUN
OF THE MILL WEST TEXAS WINTER STORM.

LONG TERM...
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US ON SATURDAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESPOND WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP AND AS STRONG AS THE ONE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY.
THEREFORE LIFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AMONG A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
CREATING FREEZING DRIZZLE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY BACKING OFF
ON SHOWING LIGHT QPF FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF FIVE OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 0C IN
LUBBOCK NOW LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL ENTER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND ATTEMPT TO ERODE THE COLD AIR
MASS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WARMING UP TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AT WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CAPROCK WHERE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE THINNER AND CLOSER TO
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OFF THE CAPROCK. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. LOOKING TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION GOING STRONGLY POSITIVE AND MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE POLAR VORTEX LOCKED UP WELL NORTH IN NORTHERN CANADA. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST A STRONG WARM UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        11  27   7  22  10 /  40  10  10  10  10
TULIA         12  24   7  20   8 /  50  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     12  23   7  20  10 /  60  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     16  25  10  22  13 /  60  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       14  24   6  21  14 /  70  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   20  26  12  22  17 /  70   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    17  26  10  21  15 /  70  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     17  24   4  19  10 /  70   0  10  10  10
SPUR          15  24   4  19  10 / 100  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     18  25   5  20  12 / 100  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ030>032-036>038-041>044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>029-033>035-039-040.

&&

$$

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