Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241748 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Ceilings continue to bounce between VFR and MVFR at all three TAF
sites this afternoon, but current satellite trends indicate that
VFR may be prevailing at KLBB and KCDS in the next hour or two.
This opens the possibility of showers and thunderstorms at the
TAF sites but confidence on timing and location is too low to
include at this time. Expect another round of MVFR to possibly IFR
conditions overnight tonight into Sunday morning all three
terminals with continued low chances for storms. Uncertainty
remains high for this forecast cycle and anticipate several
amendments as conditions unfold.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 811 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

The forecast was updated for mostly POPs with the ongoing showers
and isolated thunder over the southern Panhandle and Rolling
Plains. This precipitation was being driven by a deep layer of
frontogenesis analyzed well by most models. Although most activity
was in the form of rain only, there are some isolated
thunderstorms with elevated instability in place above the frontal
zone. This area of frontogenesis will decrease and move off east
of the area by the afternoon ending the widespread precipitation

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

All three terminals are currently hovering between VFR and MVFR as
an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to slowly
move southeast out of the Texas Panhandle into north Texas. KCDS
will experience the bulk of this activity through mid morning
while KPVW ceilings are currently MVFR to IFR in the wake of the
activity just to the east. Expect KLBB to remain mostly VFR
through the morning but ceilings could drop into MVFR for short
periods of time in the hours shortly before and after sunrise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Fairly widespread convection has broken out from the Panhandle
into western Oklahoma extending as far south as Plainview to
Guthrie. It appears these storms are breaking out along an
elevated frontal boundary with some modest upper level support in
the form of a subtle shortwave trough. This forcing should shift
eastward through the morning with the Rolling Plains favored for
some lingering precipitation past 12Z. Any subsidence on the
backside of the trough will likely keep the forecast area fairly
quiet through the remainder of the day. However, the moist
atmosphere, cool mid level temperatures, and potential for
additional upper support continue to point to additional rain
chances through Monday with Sunday night still looking like the
best potential after this morning`s round. Persistent low level
cold advection today and abundant cloud cover will limit upward
potential to temperatures, although am nervous going too cool as
any break in cloud cover this time of year will allow temps to
increase pretty quickly. Will favor the warmer MAV numbers, but
the much cooler MET has potential if low clouds hold firm all day.

The pattern begins to change Tuesday as upper level high pressure
to our west begins to bulge eastward. This should return the area
to hot and dry conditions for a couple of days at least until
another cold front enters the picture late next week.




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