Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 281711
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXISTS
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CDS AND SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD BY 19Z. TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AFTER 19Z AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME CU HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WHILE
THE CONFIDENCE OF BOTH TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED BY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
FAIRLY LOW AT THE MOMENT. FOR NOW ANY CONVECTION MENTION WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS TIME A WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWS AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM
- WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB - MOVING ACROSS COLORADO WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LVL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SW FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FROM CHIHUAHUA NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A
MODICUM OF LIFT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
OUR NE ZONES AND ALSO IN ERN NM. WE EXPECT THAT LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER JET EDGES CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS.
MUCH OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ERN NM INTO THE SW SPLNS BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE
EXTENT AND LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS WE
HEAD INTO INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE BULK OF UPPER FORCING ARRIVES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LVL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP FROM WRN OKLA SW INTO
THE WRN PERMIAN BASIN....BISECTING OUR CWA. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...NAMELY THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE OVERALL DEPICTION IS PRETTY MESSY. BECAUSE OF
THIS WE HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY BROADLY PAINTED...GENERALLY GOING
HIGH CHANCES MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCOMING JET ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WE/VE SEEN
IN SOME TIME...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS OR SO...WHICH COULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER AND MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OVERTURNING. IF AMPLE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES MAY RISE TOWARD
2000 J/KG WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE
MOIST REGIME WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES. ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE
MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE CONCERN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS COULD FORM A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE IF IT DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PICTURE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS
MUDDIED UP AT THE MOMENT BY SMALL SCALE FEATURES NOT WELL RESOLVED
THIS FAR OUT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON FRIDAY
AND PERSIST AROUND OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ANY
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED BY
THE AREA ON FRIDAY SO LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE...THE LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR
DETERMINING LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOWER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUT STILL IN A RESPECTABLE CATEGORY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. BEYOND SATURDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW. A
FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
FRONT TO STOP SHORT. OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLACING WEST TEXAS UNDER
A MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  85  61  90  62 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  86  63  91  65 /  40  30  30  10  10
PLAINVIEW     62  87  65  92  65 /  40  30  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  88  65  91  64 /  40  30  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  90  68  94  69 /  50  30  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  90  66  93  66 /  50  30  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  90  66  94  65 /  50  30  30  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  91  71  96  72 /  50  30  30  10  10
SPUR          67  91  68  95  68 /  50  30  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     70  94  71  97  71 /  50  40  40  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51





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