Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 150443
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1043 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. A cloud deck around
8-9k ft will pass across the area early in the TAF period. North
winds will become southwest by Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change in the forecast over the next week. Daily high
temperatures will be seasonable with some cool mornings especially
tomorrow and Saturday as cloud cover up on the Caprock diminishes
during the overnight hours and radiational cooling helps drop lows
a few degrees.

GFS and ECMWF consensus has improved in the overall pattern
through the weekend though that pattern remains somewhat
complicated at our latitude. As the meagher closed low to our
southwest lifts from old Mexico and gets absorbed by the northern
jet we`ll see periods of shortwave ridging aloft ahead of the
next system that ultimately flattens and becomes more diffuse in
developing short-lived zonal flow by the middle of next week.

The pattern continues to remain mostly dry, especially Saturday, though
the signal for some precip late Sunday into early Monday across
our southwest zones has been persistent as the lifting closed low
provides some divergence aloft and weak low pressure at the
surface develops just to our south near the I20 corridor. Given
low confidence in evolution of the overall pattern and lean
moisture available, confidence is low on any impactful effects at
the surface Sunday into Monday.

Beyond the next week there is considerable uncertainty with both
operational models flip-flopping on the strength, timing and
location of energy splitting off from the northern jet as a broad
trough develops from the northern Plains into New England. We do
expect cold air to filter south out of the Central Plains going
into next weekend, because its Winter and that happens. Available
moisture and mechanisms necessary to efficiently produce any
winter precipitation in the differing patterns offered by
operational models beyond this weekend are entirely unknown. User
beware of these outcomes that far out.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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