Area Forecast Discussion
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482
FXUS64 KLUB 271740
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Similar to yesterday, west winds are slow to increase. Yet,
increase they should. Have backed off a bit still increase them
this afternoon. A cold front will shift winds to north around
midnight and become gusty. There could be a brief period of
stratus behind the front, more likely at KCDS than KLBB and KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today is expected to be hot, dry and breezy. Highs will be in the
90s to near 102 in the Rolling Plains. West winds should be a bit
stronger than yesterday pushing up to 15-25 mph with stronger
gusts this afternoon. This will lead to increased fire danger
this afternoon into the early evening.

A short wave rotating around an upper low in southern Canada will
emerge into the Plains States to our north today into tonight and
propel a cold front through our area tonight. The front should be
close to Lubbock around midnight. Moisture ahead of the front is
very limited and we don`t expect any convection with it. Models do
hint at isolated storms along the front to our south Sunday.
Tomorrow should be much cooler than today with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s along with gusty northerly winds...especially in
the morning.

During the upcoming week starting Memorial Day and onward,
moisture will slowly increase over the region as southeast to
southerly surface winds pull moisture up from south Texas. Also an
upper trough is forecast to develop along the west coast and
slowly approach helping increase instability. We should see a
chance of Thunderstorms to begin in parts of the area Tuesday and
then increase Wednesday through Friday as surface moisture
continues to slowly increase. Winds aloft will remain weak lending
to the possibility of some slow moving storms. As such we see
some hope of significant rainfall in the region although the
amount of coverage is still in question. Also with the weak
steering winds, outflow boundaries from storms one day may impact
where storms form the following day. Afternoon high temperatures
are expected to remain in the 80s throughout the week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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