000
FXUS64 KLUB 071153
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
553 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH THINNING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN THICKENING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME VERY GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THE INITIAL FROPA COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BLDU AND SUB-VFR
VISIBILITIES...AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT. AN AWW MAY BE NEEDED FOR KLBB TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT...THOUGH PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
FINALLY...A DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILL IN WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM DAY...BUT THE MILD WEATHER WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS A STOUT COLD FRONT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOW SHOWERS CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH EVEN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION NORTHWEST...THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY.

A RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH 09Z TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MID-MORNING AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY AFTERNOON LEAVING PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING BREEZES PROPELLING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S. THESE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO ELEVATE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE CAPROCK...THOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLE
AND BLAST THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS FRONT MAY EDGE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONGER SURGE IS
PROGGED THIS EVENING. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUDS...AND WE
COULD EVEN SEE A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TRY AND DEVELOP INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR WILL LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT GROUND LEVEL EARLY ON. INSTEAD...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN DOWNDRAFTS FROM THE STRONGER VIRGA SHOWERS COULD ADD
MOMENTUM TO THE ACCELERATING FRONT. THE NAM SHOWS 3 HR PRESSURE
RISES OF 10-13 MB DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
THEN PLUNGING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
MAGNITUDE. THE LARGE PRESSURE RISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ANY DOWNDRAFTS ALL RAISE CONCERN ABOUT
THE WIND SPEED STRENGTH IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON
POST-FRONTAL...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY SEE 30-40 MPH
WINDS...WITH THOSE STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY ON THE CAPROCK. GIVEN
THE STRONG WINDS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST WITH THE FROPA
APPEARS A DECENT BET AND WE HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS AS WELL.
LASTLY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT PROSPECTS
APPEAR TOO LOW TO ADDED A THUNDER MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
AS TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE/EXPAND MODESTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL EXIST. ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT /AND SPOTTY/. ALSO...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
JUST ENOUGH TO BRING THE RISK OF SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EXIT THE CWFA SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE MS VLY...AND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH CLOSES OF IN THE MID-LVLS AND SINKS SSW FROM
THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO SRN AZ. WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN AND ERN ZONES...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE 8 OR 9 AM. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S...BUT
WILL FEEL COLDER DUE TO THE BRISK NORTH WINDS. MED-RANGE PROGS
SWINGTHAT UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MX AND SRN TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ON A TRACK WHICH SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SHOULD BLAST THROUGH THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
IT APPEARS LIFT WILL BE SHALLOW AND MOISTURE LIMITED AS BULK OF
THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THUS WE/LL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SHOW A INITIAL
COOL-DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT THE COOLER AIR WON/T REALLY
BUILD IN UNTIL WED...WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S. GREATER
UNCERTAINTY CROPS UP IN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER WAVE BY
MIDWEEK...AS MOST OF THE ENERGY SLIDES EAST THOUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT AGAIN SOME MAY CUT OFF IN THE 4-CORNERS AREA. IN ANY
CASE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...DESPITE SOME
TROUGHINESS IN THE REGION. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THU INTO
FRI ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  29  48  28  63 /   0  40  20  10   0
TULIA         78  32  49  30  64 /   0  30  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  32  50  30  64 /   0  20  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     80  36  52  30  65 /   0  20  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       82  36  52  31  65 /   0  20  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   80  35  53  30  63 /   0  20  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    81  36  53  30  64 /   0  20  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     83  36  49  31  66 /   0  20  30  10   0
SPUR          83  37  51  33  64 /   0  20  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     83  37  51  31  62 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23