Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 090533
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATE THIS MORNING AND MAY
BECOME A BIT GUSTY...PARTICULARLY AT KPVW AND KLBB...WHERE SPEEDS
NEAR 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR SIMPLICITY...HAVE KEPT SINGLE LINE
TAF GOING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE DIRECTION OF STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MINOR ISSUES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHREDS OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO OUR AREA. IT WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS...SO WE GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY AT
THE TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS ON THE
CAPROCK TREND A BIT MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE MONDAY READINGS. THE ROLLING PLAINS ALSO
WILL SEE SOME WARMING BUT ALSO STILL SOME TENDENCY FOR NORTHWEST
BREEZES ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY NON-
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT/SURFACE RIDGING WILL OOZE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING IS IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF
INTRUDES FARTHER INTO THE FA WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW DROPPING
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES DESPITE THIS COLD FRONT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CREEP IN TO THE FORECAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS GENERALLY SHOWS
STRONGER TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH AT THE MOMENT BUT WE MAY NOT EVEN
SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS TROUGH UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK ANYWAY. THE
NAEFS SEEMS TO OFFER A GOOD COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BREEZES HAVE EVEN LED LOCALLY TO ACCUMULATING RED FLAG MINUTES. MUCH
LIGHTER BREEZES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ON
TUESDAY WE ALSO WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHWEST BREEZES FOR MUCH
THE SAME AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STILL VERY DRY
AIRMASS...BUT ALSO SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26


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