Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR TRENDS OF DIGGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN EVEN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEPEST LIFT
WILL CIRCUMVENT THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. BACKING WINDS ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES THIS EVENING
WILL GARNER SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE CAPROCK WILL NOT BE COUPLED
WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. LIFT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO RISE OVERNIGHT
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT MAY CREATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN
VERY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST DRY AIR CAN PUSH ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND TAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG THE FRONT WILL BE AS THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FOR THURSDAY. COOL DOWN COULD
BE MODERATED SOME BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWING
SURFACE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
THINGS UP AND MAY BRING RETURN FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF IN THE LATTER PERIODS BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  66  38  53  26 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         40  66  40  56  30 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     41  66  42  58  31 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     41  65  43  60  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       44  66  44  61  32 /  30  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   43  65  42  63  31 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  66  43  63  31 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     46  65  45  63  37 /  60  60  10  10  10
SPUR          46  67  48  65  37 /  60  60  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  67  49  67  39 /  80  80  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14




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