925
FXUS64 KLUB 092316
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

 - Hot tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

 - Daily thunderstorm chances through early next week, mainly
   during the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Not much change to the upper level flow over our region for today.
An upper high over the Desert Southwest will flatten and expand
longitudinally over the span of today as a trough ejects from the
Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. However, this
expansion will not effect the upper flow or heights over the
region. Can expect temperatures in the 90s by later this afternoon
as falling pressures and increasing thicknesses aid in warming.
Otherwise, conditions will be dry the rest of today. Surface flow
will remain southerly through this evening however, will shift to
the southwest overnight as lee surface troughing develops. Winds
are expected to shift back from the south and become slightly
breezy tomorrow as the surface trough expands over eastern New
Mexico. Tomorrow is looking to be the hottest day of the week as
pressures fall slightly increasing the already warm temperatures
into the mid to upper 90s for most of the region. Southerly
upslope winds and an upper trough moving through the Great Plains
could bring shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Troughing over the Pacific Northwest will help to flatten the upper
high that has been stalled over the Southwest for some time now. As
the center of this high will shift much farther west, it will allow
for more shortwave troughs to have an influence over our area. As
such, combined with moist SSE surface flow bringing in Gulf
moisture, a more active pattern is expected this weekend into early
next week. A shortwave late Thursday into early Friday morning will
lead to some scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.
Otherwise, elevated storm chances will be in store for the weekend,
mainly during the evening hours as more potent shortwaves/weak cold
fronts pass through the area. Upper ridging will help curtail most
precipitation chances Monday. However, more waves moving through
beginning Tuesday afternoon looks to bring a return of the active
pattern by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. Light winds tonight will
increase out of the SSW by mid-morning Thursday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30