Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200214 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION DID NOT QUITE GET GOING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE ONLY RESULT.
THEREFORE...HAVE CUT BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...PUT WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY. STRATUS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SINCE NOT A
STRONG SIGNAL APPEARING IN THE MODELS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLA DOWN TO THE BIG BEND. FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE
PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE PRETTY
WEAK...BUT TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE APPARENT...ONE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ONE RUNNING FROM THE NW PERMIAN BASIN
INTO ERN NM. WE EXPECT A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STORMS MOTION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW WITH ANY CELLS
QUICKLY BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WE COULD SEE A STRONGER OUTFLOW
OR TWO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AT
BAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOW STRATUS COULD
FORM EARLY WED MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX WILL BEND NEWD INTO WEST
TEXAS...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW TX INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...CUTTING ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO NM WILL BRING SOME
SUBTLE LIFT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID-LVL
WIND FIELD OVER OUR WRN ZONES. SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE TX-NM BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WX IS
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO MID 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
SEMI-DIRTY UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX IS SHOWN TO RELOCATE
WELL TO OUR EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHILE REMAINING LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEAN UPPER FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE LARGELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
AT TIMES CYCLONIC AS A FEW DECAYING WAVES GRAZE THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS STILL IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINS THE LAGGARD COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE GFS WHICH IS SOME 36 HOURS FASTER. WPC IS FAVORING A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SEEMS BEST SUPPORTED BY
THE GEFS MEAN...SO FRIDAY MAY SEE AN EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS THIS WAVE GLANCES THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE INHERITED POP GRIDS HOWEVER WERE LEFT LARGELY
IN CHECK THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WINDOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SUBTLE DETAILS IS A BIT MURKY.

AT THE VERY LEAST THE MEAN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS
WILL RESIDE NEAR THE NM STATE LINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
COINCIDENT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. SUBTLE
EASTWARD SHIFTS TO THIS MOISTURE AXIS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING/NARROWING AS IT
FIGHTS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTING TO
RECLAIM WEST TX. POPS THEREFORE REMAIN SILENT AFTER FRI NIGHT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY SEND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
INTO OUR TERRITORY...BUT THIS IS TOO DISTANT TO CONSIDER
ENTERTAINING FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP. MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED STILL LOOK TO REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE CLIMO GIVEN NO
NOTABLE CHANGE TO DAILY THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  62  91  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
TULIA         64  92  64  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  64  91  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       67  92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  92  66  92  65 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  97  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          67  93  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  94  71  96  71 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/07




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