Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 151005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
505 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Low level wind shear will persist for a few more hours before a
low level jet dissipates by mid morning. An area of showers and
thunderstorms associated with an upper level disturbance will
likely move into the region this afternoon. However, confidence is
low in coverage and location of precipitation activity. Therefore,
mention has been left out of the TAF at the moment.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/

Pattern shift to (suddenly) deep troughing over the west and
southwest flow aloft over the southern high plains for the coming
week will allow late season monsoonal moisture flow into the
region and up and down thunderstorm consideration. Nice to have
some opportunity for rain after a very dry start to September.

Solutions generally agree today that the pocket of instability
and lift with thunderstorms crossing the Rio Grande south of El
Paso this morning will spread into the southwestern South Plains
around midday or early afternoon and validates chance (at least)
for the southwestern counties. Activity should progress northeast
later today spreading some chance almost everywhere. Modest
instability and low shear should spell generic storms, though
steep remaining lapse rates in the lower atmosphere might lead to
a few strong outflow wind gusts.

Saturday, heights should build over the Texas coast behind today`s
ejecting wave into the northern plains and the deeper trough
lifting into Alberta. Slight anticyclonic curvature may shut down much
of the area for thunder, though retained slight chance thunder
mainly northern and western zones. Weak height falls Sunday with a
ripple or two ejecting from southern California may help set off
a few storms again favoring northern and western areas.

Eastern Pacific tropical system Norma, meanwhile, will be
approaching Baja with solutions in better agreement pulling
moisture into southwest Texas late Monday and Tuesday. What is
different today, however, is that the next deep upper trough
settling into the intermountain west may lead to significantly
veered westerly flow and shunt much of the moisture flow to our
south. We have retained chance thunder Tuesday favoring our
southeast. Remnant low pressure from Norma may become absorbed
into the west-southwest flow across southwest Texas by Wednesday
or so. Low chances Wednesday still favor our southeast.

By late week, the deeper trough may lead to backed flow again over
our area but solutions are inconsistent. If moisture can improve,
there may be a significant convective event late next week. Stay
tuned. Low chances adequate for now.

Temperatures generally near normal for the coming week, some up
and down related mainly to moisture, and no strong indications
this run of a significant cold front. One front appears will stall
out mid weekend over the northern Panhandle. Another may move
into our northern zones briefly Wednesday. Perhaps a stronger
Pacific front will approach next Friday. RMcQueen




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