Area Forecast Discussion
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021
FXUS64 KLUB 281645
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the duration of the
TAF cycle. Low clouds are possible early tomorrow morning between
09-12z mainly at PVW and LBB. The TAFs will reflect low end VFR
cigs, however lower cigs may be possible. Cigs should be VFR all
all TAF sites after 18z tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Dry cold front roughly along Highway 380 at 3 AM is on track to
stall in the northern Permian Basin in the coming hours. As 500 MB
height fields undergo stout rises of 60 meters over 12 hours,
this front will wash out by midday and be replaced by increasingly
moist southerly flow. However, this moisture won`t make strides
north in time to prevent deep, dry adiabatic mixing and even
warmer highs than Fri for most locales.

Better northward moisture advection unfolds overnight via the low
level jet with the brunt of moist isentropic lift occurring along
and near the 310K layer. Some of this ascent could already foster
elevated storms just south of the CWA before 00Z. Of concern for
POPs locally is a sharpening upper ridge during this time and the
inherited deep moisture voids of nearly 10k feet deep which will
likely take longer to overcome than the NAM and GFS indicate. So
even with favorable mid-level lapse rates, a rather shallow
saturated layer around 310K may not be sufficient in allowing
parcels to reach their elevated LFCs overnight. With all of these
concerns, POPs tonight were scaled even lower in both quantity and
coverage.

LONG TERM...
Moisture advection will continue through the day Sunday and the
aforementioned ridge will start to flatten which will allow
chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase through the day
Sunday. There are some indications of a pretty strong cap through
the day which may limit convection but models are still pretty
optimistic at storms developing in the afternoon across eastern
New Mexico and then spreading east through the evening. All the
models also hint at a shortwave moving across the area through the
day Sunday which may provide additional lift for storms to form.
Models continue to hint at a convective complex somewhere from the
Texas Panhandle into the southern Rolling Plains for Sunday night
into early monday morning which seems plausible given a strong
low-level jet providing ample moisture feed and strong shear in
place late in the day into the overnight hours.

Forecast for Memorial Day/Monday will hinge on how things unfold
Sunday night. Weak ridging may follow behind the shortwave that
moves over the area Sunday and cloud cover may limit surface
heating, both of which are negatives for convection. However, even
with a surface temperatures of 80-82 degrees Fahrenheit, model
soundings are generating 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE which is more
than enough for thunderstorms even with weak environmental shear.
We will have to keep an eye on the potential for severe weather
even with the weak environmental shear but will keep mention out
of the forecast because of the uncertainty involved. The upper-
level low/trough will continue to make slow progress eastward
through the middle of next week and models are continuing to bring
a front into the forecast area by Wednesday morning. This will
once again ramp up chances for precipitation by providing a low-
level focus and lift for storm development and weak wind speeds
aloft mean that any precipitation that develops will be slow
moving. That increases the threat for locally heavy rainfall for
Wednesday.

For the end of the forecast...both the GFS and ECMWF have the
trough east of the area but with different flow profiles aloft.
The GFS has northwesterly flow in place across the region while
the ECMWF has more northerly, and at some times northeasterly
flow, aloft. Should the GFS verify, the chances are better for
northwest flow thunderstorms to impact the forecast area Thursday
and Friday while the ECMWF would keep precipitation from moving
into the area. The post-frontal airmass will also have a bit drier
air which will start to trend PoPs downward for the end of the
forecast. One last thing to mention is that temperatures should
remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs for most of next
week thanks to the rain, cloud cover, and increased boundary layer
moisture. Lows will also remain on the mild side through
Wednesday of next week before falling back down to near normal for
the end of the forecast in the post-frontal airmass.

Jordan

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

51/99/99



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