Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 261711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1211 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

VFR conditions through Saturday morning. Winds will back toward SW
at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon and may become briefly gusty
before diminishing early this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1025 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

A weak cold front is making its way farther south into the
forecast area than previously expected. Hi-res short term models
have it near its farthest southward extent at this time with
increasing southwesterlies eroding the front from west to east
through the afternoon. However, it appears the front will hold
enough that the northeastern corner of the forecast area will
remain on the cool side of the boundary with a weak wind field
this afternoon. Have adjusted high temperatures downward, mainly
for this northeastern area. Wind speeds in the southwesterlies do
not look quite as strong, either, although there is more
uncertainty in that regard. The thick mountain-induced cirrus may
help swing things toward the lower speeds, but if that mechanism
shuts off by early afternoon, I would expect wind speeds to jump
closer to forecast levels.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

The hot, dry and breezy weather pattern is expected to continue
today and Saturday. Afternoon highs however will be ever so
slightly cooler than the record highs set Thursday. Along with the
hot afternoon temperatures we expect relative humidity values to
drop below 10 percent today and again Saturday lending to
increased fire weather concerns.

The first significant change to the forecast comes with cold
front that pushes through Saturday night as an upper trough
currently in the northwest U.S. moves east into the plains states
to our north. Because of the very dry air in place ahead of the
front...we do not expect any precipitation. Highs Sunday should
cool down closer to the 80 degree mark across the region.

The cooler temperatures with highs closer to 80 and overnight lows
mostly in the 50s are expected to continue throughout much of
next week as moisture begins to increase across the region.
Thunderstorms chances are expected to first begin Monday night and
Tuesday over parts of the region and then gradually increase
Wednesday through Friday as a weak upper trough forms over the
desert southwest bringing winds aloft locally back to the
southwest. Surface winds remain out of the south helping increase
moisture in the region.




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