Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 172058
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
258 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVING SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WORKING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TO NEAR CHILDRESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP IN BEHIND IT AND WILL DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE FCST AREA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THEN ABOUT HOW FAR THAT
CLEARING WILL GET TONIGHT AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY. CONCERNED THIS SCENARIO PLAYS INTO THE NAM/S BIAS...BUT
ALSO CAN SEE IT AS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE
TRENDED SKY AND TEMP FCST TOWARD A MODEL BLEND ATTM. FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NM EARLY FRIDAY WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE
MORE MOISTURE WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE. A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED BE CARRIED FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN. ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AS GROUND SURFACE
TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW FREEZING. THE TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY AS WILL
OUR PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LOW DUE TO SUCH A SHORT
WINDOW BETWEEN TROFS. THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT COULD BE A FACTOR OF THE WET BIAS OF THE MODEL AND IS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER TROF SHOULD SOON FOLLOW LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THE TIME BEING IS THIS TROF WILL ALSO BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIP DUE
TO A LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY TIME. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW STRATIFORM
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PRODUCT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT BUT HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  50  28  47  23 /   0   0  20  10  10
TULIA         33  48  30  45  26 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     33  51  31  46  28 /  10   0  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     33  56  30  49  26 /   0   0  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       35  55  32  49  29 /   0   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   35  58  33  52  27 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    35  58  33  50  28 /   0   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     36  50  35  47  31 /  10  10  20  20  10
SPUR          37  57  34  48  30 /  10   0  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     40  59  39  49  32 /  10  10  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51







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