Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 020915 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
415 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE REMAINS SPREAD SOUTH AND GRADUALLY ERODE
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE INCHED THUNDER
MENTION BACK UP FOR THE MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
PREVIOUS SPREAD OF MID-RANGE THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
ENOUGH HEATING WILL GENERATE AMPLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LATER
TODAY WHILE SHEAR VALUES... ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED...REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. STILL....WE CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEFLY SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TODAY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE WE DO NOT SEE PARTICULARLY STRONG
SIGNALS AND REASON FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES. APPEARS BEST THUNDER
AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ALSO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA...THOUGH BY TONIGHT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES WILL BE VALID
IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL
BE SLIGHTLY OFF YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LINGERING FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL INITIATION INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WEST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED FROM
HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN LIKELY
SERVING UP THE BRUNT OF ITS ENERGY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
COMPLETE WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET...GREATER
INSTABILITY/THETA-E VALUES...AND HIGHER SHEAR. A DIURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY CERTAINLY ALLOW THIS COMPLEX TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BACK INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT THE
ABOVE INDICATORS AGAIN POINT TO THE MAIN SHOW NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY PERHAPS BE ENOUGH TO
BALANCE COLD POOL PROCESSES THUS ALLOWING FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RETURNING UPPER RIDGE NEARING THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY. SOME POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A
STRAY STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...BUT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING MID-UPPER WIND FIELDS SHOULD IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD INHIBIT THIS SCENARIO LEADING TO DRY FIREWORKS SHOWS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S TOWARD DUSK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD ONE OF A WEAKER VARIETY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE COURTESY OF AN UPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS LOWER CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. SOME POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY COULD EVEN SEE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WITH WESTWARD PROPAGATING ENERGY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS FOR INCLUSION OF POPS
THIS EARLY AND RIDE A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW-MID 90S. STORM CHANCES WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM LOW SHOVES A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION
IN THE PRESENCE OF AN APPROACHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. WILL
THEN MONITOR THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON IF/WHEN ENERGY CAN RELOAD
AND WALK THE LINE TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  84  62 /  50  50  40  30
TULIA         88  66  85  65 /  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     89  67  85  66 /  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     90  68  87  66 /  20  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       90  70  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  87  65 /  10  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    90  68  88  66 /  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     93  72  89  70 /  20  40  40  40
SPUR          90  70  87  67 /  10  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     92  72  91  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31


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