000
FXUS64 KLUB 231120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH WNW WINDS OF 5-12 KNOTS THRU 12Z SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 09Z...A DECAYING UPPER LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN WITH ITS PARENT TROUGH AXIS ALREADY HAVING CLEARED
THE WESTERN HALF OUR CWA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTINCT
DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR MIDLAND...HOWEVER ASCENT FARTHER NORTH HAS
BEEN WANING ALL NIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES FILLING AHEAD OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING
SKIES. SURFACE RIDGE ALREADY NW OF SAID LOW WILL DAMPEN TODAY
BEFORE REDEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM TONIGHT. STEADY W-NW WINDS ALL
DAY AND FULL SUN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM ERODING THE 1-2 INCH
SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL PROVE
TOUGHER IN OUR SW PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE THICK SNOW COULD EASILY
LINGER FOR DAYS. DESPITE UNDER DOING THE SNOW DEPTH AMOUNTS IN OUR
NW...THE NAM SNOW COVERAGE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. AS SUCH...MAX
TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THIS MODEL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SWATH FROM PARMER COUNTY EAST TO SWISHER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE...THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IS DECIDING HOW
MUCH TEMPS WILL CRATER OVER THE REMAINING SNOW PACK UNDER LIGHT NW
WINDS. MOS IS CLEARLY MISSING THE SNOW COVER IN OUR NW ZONES AND
IS SIMPLY MUCH TOO WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP. UNDERCUT
MOS LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS BY A GOOD 10 DEGREES...THOUGH LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE EVEN FURTHER.

LONG TERM...
AFTER THE HECTIC START TO THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE...THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES WEST OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL SPIN OUT WEST OF BAJA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING A RETURN OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT IS
CARRIED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING A RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS AND HOLDS OFF THE START OF PRECIPITATION BY
ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER. GFS STARTS PRECIP AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY MORNING SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD AS WE MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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