036
FXUS64 KLUB 230000
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
700 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Convection ongoing at/near KPVW terminal and just about to
commence at KLBB terminal. Periods of MVFR to briefly IFR
VSBY conditions due to +TSRA should be expected at KPVW and more
so KLBB for the first couple of hours of the forecast. Meanwhile,
precipitation will soon come to an end at the KCDS terminal.

Next impacts to all three terminals will come overnight as low
clouds and areas of fog are expected to develop with widespread
MVFR conditions. Unfortunately, there is the potential for
periods of IFR conditions as well, generally after next TAF
issuance. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Storms are increasing in coverage and intensity this afternoon
along the southward moving cold front extending from south of
Clovis to near Childress. West Texas Mesonet obs indicate a wind
shift has outrun the main boundary and extends through the
southern South Plains and Rolling Plains where more random
convection is occurring. Overall moderate to strong instability
exists in vicinity of the frontal boundary with weak deep layer wind
shear. Surface convergence along the boundary isn`t especially
strong either so anticipate short individual cell lifecycles with
some pulsing to severe criteria at times. Wet microbursts continue
to be the main concern though recent observations from Clovis
indicate larger hailstones can`t be ruled out completely. Boundary
is expected to continue moving southward this evening with
highest POPs along the latitude of Lubbock by late evening.
Shortwave energy will continue to rotate around the expanding
ridge centered west of El Paso which should support post-frontal
but more spotty convection primarily across the southern half of
the area after midnight.

Rain forecast on Wed becomes a bit more muddled with stable
conditions and subsidence in the wake of the overnight storms
expected to influence early day and possibly even afternoon
convection. Expect some destabilization across eastern New Mexico
where clouds will clear so have kept higher POPs closer to the NM
state line through late afternoon. More organized storms could
then move east overnight Wed into early Thu as another shortwave
approaches west Texas from the west. Deep, easterly upslope flow
will maintain sufficient moisture across the area to support
convection even with limited instability through the day Thursday.
Western locations are expected to begin to dry some by Friday as
the subtropical ridge amplifies across the Desert Southwest into
the four- corners. However, the approach of TC Harvey will help
keep moisture trajectories favorable for the Rolling Plains into
the weekend so maintained low POPs through Sunday there.

With considerable daytime cloud cover, upslope flow and wet soils
afternoon temperatures will show little fluctuation through the
remainder of the week, generally in the lower to mid 80s.
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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