000
FXUS64 KLUB 190903
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.

AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.

DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10.  FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  55  83  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         92  56  88  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     91  57  90  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     92  57  90  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       93  58  92  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   90  61  90  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    93  60  92  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     97  60  95  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          97  63  96  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  65 100  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.

&&

$$

31/26