427
FXUS64 KLUB 270526
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Will run with clean (VFR and light winds) TAFs this cycle. There
are two items of note, however. The first is a small chance for
thunder, mainly at KCDS. One small TS complex west of KDHT should
stay northwest of the terminals before dying. TS developing across
northwestern OK and southwestern KS may build back over the
eastern TX Panhandle and make a run at KCDS. The second issue is
the potential for fog and/or low clouds late tonight. The models
are pretty much low cloud free at the moment, but the temp-dew
point spread is narrowing. Think that KPVW and KLBB will have the
greatest risk with the copious rainfall that occurred last night
confined to areas on the Caprock.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 936 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

UPDATE...
Thunderstorm activity in the Rolling Plains has died off with the
loss of daytime heating. That leaves a t-storm complex in central
NM and more disorganized activity clustered around southeast
CO/northeast NM/southwest KS. With N-NE steering flow, some of
the high-res guidance (such as the HRRR) suggests that the
activity in that area may loosely organize and propagate southward
toward our nrn counties early Tuesday morning. Conditions aren`t
nearly as favorable as last night, but it`s not out of the
question that a weakening MCS may make it through the Panhandle
before decaying completely. We have reconfigured the PoPs
overnight to favor the northern counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. However,
there is a slim potential for some patchy fog toward sunrise at
KLBB and KPVW. Also, there is a low chance of a decaying t-storm
complex approaching KPVW or KCDS Tuesday morning. Finally, even if
the complex dies off well to the north, an outflow boundary may
bring a northerly wind shift across one or more terminals Tuesday
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated storms starting to pop this afternoon in vicinity of a mesolow
centered across the northern Permian Basin. Satellite shows deeper
moisture plume with PWAT values from 1-1.5" stretching from far
west Texas across the southeast third of the forecast area. Expect
activity to the south to continue to bubble through peak heating
then weaken or move southeast after dark. Other concern for
initiation is across southeast Colorado in upslope flow where
surface dewpoints are running lower than this time yesterday. Also
upper flow is directed more N-S which should help keep any
developing MCS closer to the New Mexico border as it makes a trek
south supported by shortwave dropping out of Colorado. Other
activity could form in deeper shear and within instability axis
further east across Kansas but upper flow should keep this well
to our northeast overnight. Overall have highest POPs across the
far southern South Plains and Rolling Plains this evening then
keep a slight chance in west and northeast overnight.

Amplified upper flow flattens into more zonal pattern through
midweek as subtropical high broadens across the Gulf coast and
shortwaves within northern stream run across the northern tier
states. Med range models including the ensembles show broad
cyclonic flow developing across the northern Plains by Friday as
an upper low drops southeast out of Canada. This may buckle the
flow enough to send another front southward into the southern High
Plains, likely aided by convection. Prior to this though,
thickness values rise along with 850 mb temps exceeding 32C once
again by Thursday. Temperatures Tuesday could still be impacted
somewhat by broad rainfall footprint from last night`s storms so
kept highs closer to lower end of guidance for another day. This
pattern shift will result in a steep temperature climb back well
into the 90s by Wednesday and at or above 100 Thursday ahead of
the potential front as surface flow veers to the southwest. If
boundary gets hung up to our north which becomes more of a
possibility the deeper into summer we get then late week and
weekend temperatures could be a few degrees warmer.

As for precip chances beyond tonight, blended guidance has been
consistent with precip breaking out along the approaching front.
Similarly, dynamical models show shortwave activity brushing the
South Plains in semi-northwest flow so held onto the slight chance
POPs mainly across the north and east Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/99/99