000
FXUS64 KLUB 052133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT SHOULD DRAW TO A CLOSE BEFORE SUNSET.
THERE STILL ARE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OFF BY LATER TONIGHT.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS...FOG...OR A HEAVY FROST  AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  MODELS ARE
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN STEP WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT
DID RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE
USUALLY FAVORS LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BUT THIS MAY ALSO BRING ABOUT A
PRETTY HEAVY FROST FOR SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.
HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH BOUNCE AROUND
THE LOCATION OF WHERE REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP.  WENT AHEAD
AND LEFT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER BUT STILL ONLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WIND WILL TAKE A WHILE
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD DO SO EARLIER ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THAN THE ROLLING PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 70 WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  STREAM OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WV/HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOULD
ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING UP TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...

FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH THE RETURN
OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND SFC SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORM
TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEK /70S/. ABL MIXING TO AOA 600
MB SUGGESTS AFTN W-SW WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH...WHICH IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG GIVEN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY TAMED. DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A BREEZY COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DRIVEN BY
A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES OF
7-10 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S ON SATURDAY/. CONCURRENTLY...AN
OPEN WAVE UA DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS EXACT TRACK. THE
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO EITHER MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /PER THE NAM/
OR BREAK INTO TWO PIECES WHERE ONE PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE OTHER PIECE TRANSLATES ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO /PER THE GFS AND
ECMWF/. THUS...THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS TOO FAR SW TO AFFECT
THE REGION. IF FOLLOWING THE FORMER MODEL...A RATHER LIGHT WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NRN AND NWRN
ZONES WITH -RA ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE NAME WHILST THE GFS IS ALMOST VOID OF PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO ITS
WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS APPEARS VALID ATTM...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH...SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FA.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SRLY SFC REGIME WILL MAKE A
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUS PROMOTING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND /HIGHS IN THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID-LATE WEEK...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS UP FOR
DEBATE /REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA PER THE ECMWF OR PASSING OVERHEAD
PER THE GFS/. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE BEYOND SATURDAY ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  71  38  72  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
TULIA         26  67  37  73  30 /   0   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     25  67  38  74  31 /   0   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     28  69  39  75  32 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       28  67  40  75  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   32  67  42  76  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    30  67  40  75  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     28  64  38  74  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          25  65  39  74  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     26  65  41  74  37 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29