Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
508 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

MVFR CIGS were slowly breaking up around KLBB and KPVW early this
morning and is expected to return to VFR within the next few hours.
There is a slight chance at additional low CIGS moving into the
region early Tuesday morning but confidence is too low to mention
in the TAF at the moment.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

The nagging upper level low currently in the eastern Texas Panhandle
will continue to spin northeastward away from the region. Northwest
winds will continue in the wake of this system both aloft and at the
surface today and tonight. It does not appear we will totally cloud
free by this afternoon. A stratus layer at a low-ish level will
persist through the day although there is a lot of subsidence
throughout the atmosphere. This will keep temperatures from warming
too much with maximum temps around seasonal averages. Surface
ridging will work in tonight from the northwest tonight possibly
accompanied by additional low stratus.

Better agreement this morning that an upper trough developing
along the  Baja coast will develop at least minimal closed
contouring tonight and Tuesday while a disturbance will rotate
around the bottom and into west Texas late Tuesday. All solutions
indicate light precipitation spreading through southern and now
central areas late Tuesday. Lower to mid levels not exceptionally
dried out, but still requiring at least some top-down moistening.
We have indicated better chance of showers Tuesday night still
favoring southeast part of our area. Minimal instability being
shown at this time into our southern fringe areas; leaving thunder
out for now.

Upper trough should be somewhat more positive tilted and a bit
weakened and drier thereafter; playing dry Wednesday and early
Thursday for now before this trough kicks away but with lesser
confidence in being totally dry than before.

Jet energy will become stronger Friday and Saturday across the
southwest. Initial low pressure still expected to steer through
the southern and central Rockies into the high plains just north
of us Friday for a breezy or low end windy day. Stronger jet and
better agreement now on a Panhandle closed low Saturday which
favors dry and windy on Saturday. Could be a duster but will look
closer at that later. Sided once again with the MOS wind
forecasts which typically do much better than blended solutions.
Temperatures should taper back into the weekend with lower
heights. Minimal precipitation mention for now. RMcQueen




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