Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
232 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017


Height and pressure falls tonight and Tuesday ahead of a trough
digging southeastward through the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin
will result in a breezy to windy 24 hour period. This in turn will
lead to mild overnight temperatures favoring the warmer end of a
narrow range in the objective guidance. For Tuesday this will be
manifest in west winds bringing low (although not extremely low) dew
point temperatures, while the downslope component helps push
temperatures back into the 80s and 90s. Thickening mid and high
clouds during the afternoon may slightly limit wind speeds but may
end up having more of an effect on temperatures with highs likely
cooler by a number of degrees for areas on the Caprock.


Starting this forecast period, models are in good agreement with the
continued development of a trough over the Four Corners region
digging southeastward into the TX Panhandle by Wednesday morning.
Both the GFS and NAM try to develop this feature into a closed low
as it enters TX, giving it a little extra strength, but either way,
there appears to be enough moisture to squeeze out some
precipitation, more favored across the northern portions of the
forecast area. As the low exits east, a decent cold front pulls
through the region, keeping highs on Wednesday roughly 20 degrees
cooler than Tuesday. However, this reprieve is to be short lived as
westerly flow returns on Thursday with drier air, rapidly heating
temps a good 15 to 20 degrees above Wednesday.

We are watching the weekend system closely, as it could produce some
active weather. The newest run of the GFS is starting to follow the
ECMWF in that it pulls the closed low from the Four Corners on
Saturday morning out into the Central Plains by Saturday evening.
This is a change from previous runs that had it digging further
south closer to the TX Panhandle. There are plenty more model runs
ahead, so we`ll see if this new agreement runs consistent. On this
current thinking, rain chances could persist through Sunday morning
when the backside of the system drags yet another cold front into
the region, quickly clearing us out...and cooling us down
significantly. Lows Sunday morning across much of the southwestern
TX Panhandle look to be on track for the mid 30s with another cool
breezy day of northerly winds. Yet, as it is spring in Texas, give a
day or two, and we`ll be warm and sunny again. It`s a fantastic time
of year!

Tomorrow afternoon`s wind and humidity combination will result in at
least elevated fire weather conditions. The highest wind speeds are
expected west of I-27 while the lowest RH should be south of Hwy
114. This leaves areas southwest of Lubbock with the best chance of
a period of low-end critical conditions. At this time given the
nature of the recent greenup we do not think a watch or warning will
be necessary for such an event.




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