Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 171105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR at all sites through prd.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

Cool northwest flow aloft with a deep, dry airmass in place means
another calm night where the closest cloud is a small patch of high
cirrus in central NM. We continue to remain on the eastern edge of a
ridge of high pressure, so today will be much like yesterday, except
edging warmer thanks to southwesterly winds. By Wednesday, upper
flow turns more zonal, and combined with southwesterly winds, highs
will edge even higher to the lower and mid 80s.

On Thursday, a weak wave will help temperatures drop as heights
fall. This wave also looks to hang up due to building high
pressure across the southeast, thus allowing flow to back across
our region. Ample moisture will start to pull into the region by
late Thursday into Friday, which initially looked favorable for
rain chances this weekend with a passing trough. On Friday, that
upper trough develops over the Pac NW but models now show it
deepening a tad further east than previously thought. It appears
split upper flow initially impedes the deepening of the trough
until the northern jet eventually takes over just as the trough
passes over our area. This would ultimately push rain chances
further east into the Rolling Plains, possibly even out of the
forecast area. It is a feature to watch closely. A cold front
still looks to be pulled through the forecast area in the wake of
the passing trough on Sunday, helping to cool temperatures back to
a more fall-like range.

Past this, models widely deviate on solutions with the GFS
continuing to push the trough eastward, eventually pinching off a
weak low over southern Alabama. However, the Euro closes off the
trough into a much stronger upper low over North Texas, which
would extend cool northerly flow for us another day or two and
create more periods of wind. This feature has deviated run to run,
so confidence in the future of this feature is low attm.




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