Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 030521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LOOKS MINIMAL AS
SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO FADE...WITH MAINLY LIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS -SHRA
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE EARLY AND TRIM BACK OVERNIGHT POPS MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW...SOME ON THE STRONG SIDE...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH AZ AND UT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TO THE NE THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER UT MOVING INTO
NW CO BY 12-15Z MON MORNING. AM PARTICULARLY CONCERNED BY THE
LATEST HIGH RES WRF AND HRRR RUNS...WHICH BOTH SHOW A STRONG BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP MOVING THROUGH SW-CENTRAL CO BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE. IN COORDINATION WITH KGJT AND KABQ HAVE EXPANDED OUR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAN JUANS TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE
CONTDVD...ALONG WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...THROUGH 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IF THE BANDED HEAVY
PRECIP GETS A DELAYED START...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW INTENSE THE PRECIP WILL BE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN CONVECTION IS
GENERALLY LESS INTENSE. NEVERTHELESS...ANYONE PLANNING ON BEING IN
OR TRAVELING THROUGH THE MTS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT NEEDS TO BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINS...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SUDDEN SMALL STREAM RISES...FLOODED ROADWAYS...AND MUD OR
ROCK SLIDES IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE DURING THE
DAY...INTO SRN WY BY 00Z TUE. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHEAR...THIS WILL RAISE THE THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVER THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SERN PLAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HGWY 50
AND E OF I-25...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED LLVL
MOISTURE AND PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW THE HIGH TEMPS FROM TODAY...SO WILL SEE MAINLY TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S MON AFTERNOON. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MON NIGHT...AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SERN
CO AND AN UPR TROF MOVES NORTHWARD INTO WY...THE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN
ACRS THE FORECAST SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT.  ON TUE AN
UPR RIDGE AXIS WL LIE FROM AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...
RESULTING IN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUE...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TUE NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO
ERN CO AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS.  AS A RESULT...THE NAM PRINTS OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ON WED THE UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVR CO WITH RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY JUST SOME
ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. HOWEVER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THRU ERN CO IN THE EVENING
HOURS TO HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACRS THE PLAINS. ON THU THE
UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES THRU MT WY AND NRN CO. ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN IS EXPECTED
THU AFTERNOON...BUT THEN AS THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN CO BY THU EVENING.

FRI AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR CA...WITH AN UPR RIDGE BEING
OVR CO. MSTR STILL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THE
DAY...WITH MAYBE JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
THEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ID AND UT...MONSOON MSTR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN CO AGAIN WHICH WL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY
OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AS THE UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD
ACRS MT AND WY SAT NIGHT...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS THE ERN
CO PLAINS. THEN BY SUN IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WL AGAIN BE
CUTOFF FROM THE MONSOON MSTR...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 05Z...AND WILL KEEP A
VCSH MENTION AT KALS UNTIL 09Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...THOUGH
CIGS/VIS AT THE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN VFR. ON MON...UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER EARLY TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z...WITH A THREAT OF CONVECTION AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 18Z-19Z INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL MVFR/BRIEF
IFR EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. 01Z-03Z...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORMS ON THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO KS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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