Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242144
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

...Isolated storms mainly north and east of southern Colorado...

The interaction of southeast winds feeding into the Denver Cyclone
and an upper level disturbance will trigger the main show this
afternoon. Southern Colorado will generally be too far south for
much action. Still some threat of isolated storms, possibly severe,
over the far eastern plains into early evening.  Also, maybe an
isolated storm or two over the central mountains or Pikes Peak
Region.  The primary threats from any of these storms will be
lightning and wind gusts to around 50 mph.  However, there is the
small possibility of a severe storm over the far southeast plains,
primarily Kiowa, Bent or Prowers Counties.  If a storm manages to
gain enough strength out that way, 1 inch diameter hail and wind
gusts to 60 mph will be possibilities.

Things should wind down pretty quickly after sunset this evening.
Wednesday looks mostly sunny and warm with little chance for
precipitation across the area.  Afternoon highs should be near
average over the west and about 5 or so degrees above average
over the east.

The combination of gusty winds and low humidities will make for
critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon but with the
greenup underway, no fire weather highlights at this time.
Regardless, caution is advised.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Primary meteorological issues for the CWA continue to be
temperatures, POPS/QPF amounts and the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms at times.

Relatively dry southwesterly upper flow is expected to continue
over the forecast district into Wednesday evening with a more
active active meteorological pattern then expected to develop.

A closed upper low, located over west-central Arizona at 06Z
Thursday is projected to enter the 4-Corners region by 18Z
Thursday and then move across southern Colorado Friday, before
shifting east of the forecast district Friday night. In addition,
northerly to northeasterly surface surges are expected to move
across the area during the late week period.

Increased precipitation chances are expected from Thursday into
Friday in combination with the potential for strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms at times. Also, locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible during this time-frame. In addition, even some
higher terrain accumulating snow is anticipated, primarily from
later Thursday into Friday.

It still appears that a return to somewhat drier and warmer
conditions with generally isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms at times should be noted over many locations from
Memorial Day weekend into early next week as zonal to
southwesterly upper flow combines with the daily orographic
heating cycle, available atmospheric moisture and generally weak
upper disturbances at times. In addition, the potential for some
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible during
this time-frame, favoring eastern portions of the forecast
district.

Coolest temperatures during the longer term should be noted from
Thursday into Friday night, while warmest conditions should
prevail from Sunday into next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Generally VFR expected across flight area next 24 hours under dry
and warm southwest flow aloft. However, there could be a spotty late
day or early evening shower or storm over the central mountains, the
Pikes Peak Region, along the Palmer Divide or over the far southeast
plains. The primary concern with any such storm would be lightning
and erratic downburst winds gusts to around 50 mph. However, a storm
over the far southeast plains could be a bit stronger. The window
for convection will run until about 03Z. Tomorrow looks mostly sunny
and warm with little chance for precipitation across the flight
area. The KCOS...KPUB and KALS TAF sites should all remain VFR
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NONE.

&&

$$


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