Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
424 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Upper trough shifting from Colorado into the central plains
early this morning, while surface cold front has raced well south
out of Colorado and into wrn TX. For today and tonight, rather NW
upper flow will persist across the area, with some very weak energy
pushing south across the state this afternoon and evening. Low
levels are forecast to continue to dry over most of the region,
though models seem to be overdoing the amount of drying so far this
morning, as 10z dewpoints are running several degf higher than model
fcsts across most of the area. Expect enough residual moisture will
hold on over the mountains for some weak afternoon/early evening
convection, though coverage/intensity looks isolated/weak at best,
as instability will be modest and sub-cloud layers fairly dry. 06z
NAM does try to keep a few storms past sunset over Teller/Park
counties, but overall expect a rapid end to convection early in the
evening as forcing fades quickly. Temps today will warm several degf
from Sat most locations with more sun and building
heights/increasing mid-level temps, though most locations will still
end up a few degf below seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 424 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

An unsettled pattern will remain in place across Colorado through
the extended period.

Monday through Thursday...A ridge of high pressure over the western
US will strengthen and slowly edge east towards Colorado, while a
low develops over the CA baja. This will help to draw moisture up
into the Four Corners region, providing for a daily chance of aftn
and eve showers and thunderstorms. The NAM and EC models persist in
pushing the region into a diurnal spring/summer convection pattern,
while the GFS is staying exceptionally wet through the long range.
Expect highs in the 70s to lower 80s each day, which are right at
seasonal norm levels.

Friday and Saturday...By the weekend, the EC and GFS models are
completely out of phase with each other. Therefore, had to stick
with the extended procedure output which continues the unsettled,
diurnal pattern of showers and thunderstorms each aftn and eve. Max
temps will remain in the 70s to lower 80s. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 424 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight. KCOS
could see an isolated -tsra over the higher terrain W of the
terminal late this afternoon, but suspect storms will stay close the
higher terrain and won`t include a mention in the TAF.




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