Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 300528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENTLY...

AT 1 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE UP IN NE CO AND THEY WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WERE WARM...WITH MID
80S OVER THE PLAINS...U70S OVER EL PASO COUNTY...AND GENERALLY 60S
AND 70S IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NNW AT
5 TO 15 MPH.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT....

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST
OF THE MTNS WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS MOVING SE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. WITH DWPTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING
ALOFT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS VERY LOW...SO I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY BURN SCAR ISSUES ATTM.

SATURDAY...

BASED ON GUIDANCE...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRYER TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS
MID LVL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED. IT WILL BE HOT ON THIS
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90-94F RANGE
MOST OF PLAINS WITH 70S AND 80S VALLEYS..50S AND 60S MTNS.

SUNDAY...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER REGION AND THIS WILL USHER A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND/OR
AFTERNOON. ATMOS APPEARS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT I WOULD EXPECT
WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO SAT. TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER ON THIS DAY...DEPENDING ON THE FROPA. FOR
NOW...I HAVE TEMPS IN THE M90S MOST OF PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
TSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY...

DRY WX EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS COOLING
BACK DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE.

BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
ALSO...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM NEXT THURSDAY
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

FINALLY...GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL 08Z. THESE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AND KPUB AND NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...AIRMASS LOOKS DRIER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT



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