Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Issued at 1048 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Updated forecast database to pull pops for entire CWA overnight.
Latest radar and satellite trends have shown convection moving
out, with no indication of rebuilding back into the forecast area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Much less shear is in place today as compared to yesterday and
storms have been considerably weaker as a result in spite of dew
points in the mid 50s to lower 60s still entrenched across the
southeast plains.  ML CAPE values up to around 2000 j/kg reside
across southern portions of the southeast plains and this is the
area to watch for pulse type severe storms through this evening.
Meanwhile...falling dew points along the I-25 corridor have resulted
in much lower CAPE values around 500 J/kg or less.

Thunderstorms will continue through the evening before decreasing
overnight.  Have maintained some isolated pops out west through the
overnight where a few showers may linger into the early morning.

Tuesday will see an uptick in thunderstorms once again as western
U.S upper trof moves into western CO during the afternoon.  With
increasing southwest flow in the afternoon...the mountains will see
an increase in winds which will help mix out dew points into the
30s.  Dry line should take shape across the southeast CO plains in
the afternoon and where winds shift a bit more
southeasterly...across northeast sections of the plains is where
deep layer shear will be maximized enough for the potential for a
severe storm or two.  NAM12 shows cape values in the 2000-3000 j/kg
range across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties with
considerably less farther west where dew points are lower.  Kiowa
and Prowers look to have the best chance for severe thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Main longer term computer simulations, forecast model soundings
and PV analysis as well as precipitable water analysis continue
to indicate that an overall drying trend should be experienced
over the forecast district into mid-week with atmospheric moisture
then gradually increasing from later Wednesday into late week
with moisture then moderating again during the weekend.

Will continue to depict basically isolated to scattered primarily
afternoon into evening shower and thunderstorm activity during
the longer term in combination with low-grade gradient winds and
minimal fire weather concerns.

The potential still exists that some of the stronger storms will
be capable of generating heavy rain and localized flash flooding
concerns and may also be intense at times.

Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures should continue to run
near climatological averages over the majority of the forecast
district during the longer term with warmest temperatures
anticipated from this weekend into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

VFR conditions at all taf sites overnight and through the morning
on Tue. Drier air will spread across the srn half of the area Tue
afternoon, limiting tsra chances at KALS and KPUB, and keep any
mention of convection out of both terminals. At KCOS, still a low
threat of a storm from 22z into the evening, and will carry a VCTS
mention. Cold front will drop south through the plains Tue
evening, with winds shifting to the north at KCOS and KPUB after




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