Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 262112
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE EDGES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION...WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA...WITH TEMPS WARMING UP INTO THE 50S TO RIGHT AROUND
60 F AS OF 230 PM.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE SO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH N-NW FLOW CONTINUING. LOOK FOR A BIT
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT AS 700MB AND 850MB TEMPS WARM BY
ABOUT 5 DEG C...THEN MAX READINGS TOMORROW AFTN ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE BY 10-15 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO TODAY. GFS AND NAM MODELS
HINTED AT AN ISOLATED AFTN SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE
EC REFRAINED...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BRINGING WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS
SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIR IS FORECAST TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM FORMING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL...SO HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...
WITH SOME MOISTER AIR...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND DAYTIME HEATING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE QUITE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE EUROPEAN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US...WHILE THE GFS HAS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THROUGH TUESDAY THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE FOR COLORADO...WHILE
THE EUROPEAN HAS A MAINLY DRY SOLUTION. AFTER THAT...GFS HAS
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW...WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE FORECAST
PROCEDURE HAS A REASONABLE SOLUTION WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE MILD...SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE



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