Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 052218
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES...BUT NO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RECENT SNOWMELT
COUPLED WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD YIELD SOME POCKETS OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SHOULDN`T BE TOO
WIDESPREAD. WHILE BEING A LOT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TOMORROW...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT AND ROUGHLY 3-5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

OUTSIDE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT(PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS) FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...ANTICIPATE
THAT MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE BASICALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF DEEPER SNOWPACK LOCATIONS) DURING THE LONGER TERM.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
THAT POTENTIAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
RUN IN THE ONE TO FOUR INCH RANGE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...PROJECT THAT BASICALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED DURING THE LONGER TERM IN
COMBINATION WITH NEAR SEASONAL TO ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY TO
MID-MARCH TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AND OVER LOCATIONS
WITH LIMITED TO NO SNOW-PACK).

FOR EXAMPLE...PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY CLIMB TO AROUND 6C(COMPARED TO -4C
700 MB TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS AFTERNOON) IN COMBINATION WITH
AN EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY
WITH COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. FINALLY...GENERALLY
LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED DURING THE MAJORITY
OF LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL SPREAD VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA AT TIMES BUT NO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION.  COULD BE
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE
TO SNOWMELT AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
EXPECTED ALL AREAS NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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