Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WY INTO CO THIS
MORNING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SOUTHEAST
CO.  IN THE EARLY EVENING THE UPR TROF AXIS WL MOVE INTO SW KS AND
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...WITH DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...AND THIS
WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.  WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONT...PCPN WL SPREAD TO THE ERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. WL KEEP THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...FIRST OVR
THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...NE TO E LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS BECOME MORNING
NORTHERLY ACRS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS.  THIS FLOW WL
FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT LEAST THRU MIDAFTERNOON...AND THE SERN
FOOTHILLS AND SRN BORDER AREA FOR ENHANCED PCPN.  WITH LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON BEING STEEP...7.5C/KM TO AROUND 9C/KM ALONG THE MTNS
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. H7 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO COOL TO ABOUT -7C THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PCPN MAKES THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGING...BUT
OVER AND NR THE MTNS THERE COULD BE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN WL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND
MODERATES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND ARE NO
LONGER PRINTING OUT ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG WITH H7 WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...IS FLATTENED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER
LOCATION OF SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE A DEVELOPING SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS POPS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST RUN OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. AT
ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AT 25-30 KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THROUGH 22-24Z...AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPUB THROUGH 24Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. KALS SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEY EDGES THIS AFTN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE


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