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000
FXUS65 KPUB 282133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
233 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NW
SFC WINDS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE ERN
MTNS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WINDS WL THEN
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

LATE TONIGHT MID LEVEL MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR ALSO INCREASING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. GENERALLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...BUT SOME ISOLD SNOW MAY FALL OVR THE HYR AREAS OF THE
ERN MTNS AS THE MID LEVEL MST INCREASES.  AN UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE
MOVING ACRS THE AREA ON THU...BUT A LOT OF MID LEVEL MSTR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS COOL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WL ALSO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TO SCT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A STORM
SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE S CA COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ONSHORE AS A CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE NR THE BAJA PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WITH WAA AHEAD OF
THE LOW OVER THE ERN SAN JUANS THU NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE HIGH...POSSIBLY ABOVE 10K FEET...AND WILL NOT REALLY FALL UNTIL
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN AZ EARLY SATURDAY. LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
WILL ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MODT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE BEGINNING
FRI MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF HIGHWAY 160...THINGS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE CENTRAL MTS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ERN PLAINS MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW FROM THIS EVENT...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CUT-
OFF MUCH TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL
COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...AS UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT
OVER THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA IN THE LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY SUNDAY...IT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY...AND BY SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND RATON
MESA AREA. W-NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A DRY
PATTERN...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. NEXT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY
WED NEXT WEEK...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SEEMINGLY EVER-
PRESENT EASTERN TROUGH. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASES. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND
POSSIBLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THRU MID TO LATE MORNING
THURSDAY WHEN CIGS SHOULD THEN INCREASE. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL
SEE THE WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING. KALS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL
LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28