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690
FXUS65 KPUB 201030
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
430 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include
temperatures and pops.  Forecast district currently graced by
generally above seasonal later August early morning temperatures
and dry conditions.

Recent real-time data...PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that precipitable water values
will be on the increase from this afternoon into tonight, allowing
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity basically
favoring higher terrain and southern locations during this
time-frame.

Some of the stronger storms may be briefly capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and even some small hail at
times.

Finally...above seasonal later August maximum and minimum
temperatures are expected to continue over the majority of the
forecast district during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Monsoon moisture will return for the extended period as southerly
flow advects higher precipitable waters and weak embedded
disturbances back northward into southern CO. First such system
will move across southern portions of the area on Monday with both
GFS and NAM indicating some morning showers and extensive high
cloudiness across the region Monday morning. Some drying aloft
works in during the morning which may allow for sufficient
thinning/breaks in the cloud cover for a view of the
eclipse...then scattered thunderstorms will develop across the
mountains by afternoon. Surface dew points will come up some, but
still remain in the 40s to mid 50s in the afternoon(with highest
values across the southeast corner). Central mountains should see
dew points drop back into the 30s in the afternoon. This will
generally limit CAPE values to around 1000 J/kg or less. Deep
layer shears remain on the weak side as well, 20- 30 kts, so
severe threat does not look particularly high. However threat for
locally heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding on burn
scars will increase.

A cold front drops through the plains Monday night which should drop
back temperatures some for Tuesday.  Meanwhile, moisture caught with
the upper ridge combined with upslope flow will bring another active
day for thunderstorms for the mountains and adjacent plains.  Flow
aloft looks a tad weaker this day, so once again, heavy rainfall
with potential for flash flooding on burn scars appears to be the
main risk.  CAPE may be slightly higher this day for the southeast
mountains, depending on extent that low level moisture remains in
place.

Wednesday and Thursday continue to look fairly wet across the
mountains as pattern of troffing to the southwest and ridging
across the rockies and central plains continues to advect monsoon
moisture northward. Deep layer shears look a bit stronger on
Wednesday thanks to a increased flow aloft, so potential for
severe thunderstorms may increase. However, main threat still
looks to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Eventually flow aloft becomes more westerly as an upper trof moves
across the northern U.S Rockies.  Precipitable waters come down a
bit across the area for Friday, then a cold front drops through the
plains with upslope flow a return of low level moisture expected for
Saturday. So a slight dip in thunderstorm activity expected for
Friday, though at least some isolated to low end scattered
thunderstorm coverage is still expected.  Thunderstorm potential
will increase again for Saturday across the southeast mountains and
plains along with another cool down for the eastern half of the
area.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 429 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Overall, VFR conditions are anticipated over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB
taf sites during the next 24 hours as isolated to low-grade
scattered primarily afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms
remained focused south and west of the TAF sites during this time-
frame.  At this time, some near/short term high resolution solutions
indicate that KCOS would have the highest potential of noting a
thunderstorm, primarily during the later afternoon and evening
hours, although confidence not high enough to enter in tafs at this
juncture.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$