Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 120003
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
503 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 502 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Quick update for expiration of the Red Flag Warning. Incorporated
latest obs data. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Critical Fire Weather conditions continue far eastern plains
through 5 PM...

Front has dropped through the plains and winds have been gusty along
the far eastern border, mainly east of KLAA and KSPD as seen in
mesonet sensors.  These will continue for another hour or two and
will maintain Red Flag Warning until its 5 PM expiration.
Tonight...should be clear and cold again...especially in the normal
cold spots like the San Luis Valley, upper Arkansas River Valley and
the Wet Mountain valley. Have gone close to guidance for these areas
which has been capturing situation fairly well and much better than
model blends lately.

Tuesday will be warmer with lighter winds as the upper ridge expands
eastward. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Tuesday night through Thursday...Models indicate that an upper ridge
parked over the western US will keep Colorado under brisk n-nw flow
through Thursday. A disturbance will cross the northern Rockies and
the Dakotas Wed, increasing winds across the northeastern quad of CO
as well as pushing a cold front down into the eastern plains Wed
night. Given such dry conditions with low humidity levels, fire wx
conditions may reach critical levels at some locations across the
eastern plains Wed. Since this looks like a marginal case, will not
hoist any highlights right now but will continue to monitor. Another
upper disturbance Thu aftn will produce even stronger winds, though
colder temps and higher humidity levels should keep fire wx
conditions from becoming critical. The EC model indicates an
isolated shot of some higher terrain showers on Thu, though the GFS
maintains a dry forecast. Since ongoing grids contained isolated
pops, will continue with the isolated chances though areal coverage
has been knocked down slightly. Look for highs in the upper 40s to
upper 50s on Wed, then cooling by 5 to 10 degrees for Thu with highs
in the 40s to around 50F. The coldest night will be Thu night into
Fri morning, with minimums in the teens to mid 20s, and single
digits in the SLV.

Friday through Sunday...Long range models indicate another upper
disturbance, this one more developed, sweeping across the Pacific NW
on Fri, the Great Basin and Rockies Sat, then passing to the east on
Sun. This will flatten the flow aloft across the state on Fri which
will help warm temps, then as the upper feature crosses the region
on Sat, pcpn will move into the higher terrain on Sat before ending
on Sun. Expect maximum temps over the weekend in the 40s to around
50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the eastern
plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions expected to continue with diurnally driven winds
expected to remain under 12 kts at the terminals.  -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT


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