Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 202047
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

At 2 pm, winds are generally light across the CWA, except in the
Kansas border counties where northwest winds have been gusting over
20 mph closer to the low pressure system surface and aloft.
Temperatures were in th 50s to lower 60s across the plains and I-25
corridor, 40s and 50s high valleys, and 30s and 40s mountains. Radar
and short range forecast models showing only isolated light showers
possible for the rest of the afternoon.

Tonight, any isolated showers will diminish early, as Great Plains
low continues to move off to the east.  Clear to partly cloudy skies
will prevail. With light winds, it will be another chilly early
morning, but not as cold as last night across the I-25 corridor and
plains. In northern El Paso County, temperatures are forecast to be
around freezing, but the duration should be short-lived.  After
collaborating with NWS Boulder, we decided not to issue freeze
warnings, although it may be a good idea to cover tender plants. Low
temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s across the high valleys
and mountains.

Sunday, embedded in the northwest flow aloft, a shortwave will move
into the central Rockies, producing some synoptic lift.  Instability
is lacking, with only a few hundreds J/KG of CAPE, with the
exception of far southeast Colorado (Baca County), where moisture
and modest wind shear may produce strong to marginally severe storms
during the afternoon and evening. The coverage of showers and storms
will be more than Saturday.  High temperatures will be some 5 to 10
degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today with increasing temperatures
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Sunday night through Tuesday...Brisk north to northwest flow aloft
will persist across the region through Tues, providing for continued
shower and storm chances, as well as cooler air. Two shortwaves, one
Mon morning and another Tue morning, will cross the state and
provide the dynamics for convective activity, and the best windows
of opportunity for convection will be Sun early eve, then Mon aftn
through Tue morning. In addition, SPC has the far se corner of the
state outlooked in the marginal area on Mon so some of the storms
that day may be strong bordering on severe. Expect max temps in the
60s to around 70F on Mon, then 50s and 60s for Tue.

Wednesday through Saturday...There are some discrepancies between
extended models starting around Thu, but in general an upper ridge
builds into the desert southwest on Wed, producing dry conditions
and warming temps. The ridge moves east on Thu, with westerly flow
aloft then in place over Colorado for Fri and Sat. Isolated aftn mt
convection returns on Thu, then very isolated activity is forecast
for Fri and Sat. Temps are expected to warm back into the 70s for
Wed, then 70s to lower 80s for Thu through Sat. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the KALS, KCOS and KPUB
terminals during the next 24 hours. However, it is possible some
brief MVFR conditions could occur with showers at and near the
terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...TM



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