Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 292145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Northerly flow on the back side of upper midwest low pressure system
will continue across CO with a lobe of energy exiting eastern CO
this afternoon.  Still enough residual moisture, instability and
northwesterly orographics to produce some light snow showers along
the Continental Divide...with snow showers more spotty and
instability driven across the remainder of the mountains.  These
should diminish during the evening hours...with only spotty
additional snowfall amounts of up to an inch across the higher mtns.
Lows tonight will be a few degrees colder than last night with
temperatures falling into the single digits above and below zero
across the mountains and valleys...with teens across the plains.

Flow aloft transitions to northwesterly with winds across the
central mountains increasing during the afternoon as gradient winds
increase aloft. Could see gusts up to 40-45 mph at MYP during the
afternoon. The plains will see lighter winds though with lee side
surface low redeveloping...there will be some gusty west winds
through the gaps down around Walsenburg and also around Canon City.
Max temperatures will be below normal. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Wednesday night-Friday night...Latest models continue to agree on
short wave ridging across the region Wednesday night and broadly
agree on the next system digging across the Great Basin on Thursday,
splitting as it crosses the Rockies through Friday night. The 12Z
runs of the GFS and ECMWF, as well as GFS ensemble data, are fairly
similar with most of the energy digging across the southern Great
Basin and into the Desert SW through the day Friday, with the ECMWF
indicating a little stronger and more distinct secondary northern
trough translating across the northern Rockies. The preferred global
model solutions continue to indicate minimal precipitation chances
across the eastern plains through the period, with best chances of
generally light snow over and near the higher terrain from late
Thursday night through the day Friday, as the upper trough swings
across the northern Rockies. The passing northern trough sends a
weak front across the eastern plains on Friday, sending another slug
of cooler air across the area and keeping Friday the coldest day of
the week, with highs in the 30s to near 40 across the lower
elevations and mainly teens and 20s across the higher terrain.

Saturday-Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft across the region Saturday
becomes more westerly through the day on Sunday, with southern
stream cut off low slowly meandering across old Mexico. Pattern
keeps the area generally dry, save some light snow possible across
the central mountains, with temperatures warming to near seasonal
levels through the weekend. Models then agree on another deep
trough digging across the intermountain west on Sunday which
continues into the Rockies into the middle of the week and behind.
Operational runs of the EC and GFS have a possible closed low
developing across the central Rockies early next week, though the
GFS ensemble mean keeps the main low well north of the area with
broad west to southwest flow aloft across state. At any rate,
should see another downturn in temperatures across the area for
the early to middle part of the next week, with at least a chance
of some precipitation, especially for the higher terrain.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites though some periodic VFR
cigs with mid clouds will be possible at KCOS and KPUB through the
early evening.  Gusty northwest winds east of KCOS and KPUB will
diminish through late afternoon with light winds expected overnight.
Dry weather will continue on Wednesday with VFR conditions and light
winds at all three terminals.  -KT




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