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000
FXUS65 KPUB 061747
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...INCREASING POPS/SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY LATER TONIGHT...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER
PRIMARILY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY THIS MORNING FORECAST DISTRICT GRACED BY MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY
SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED TODAY OVER THE CWFA...THANKS TO DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 70F IS PROJECTED OVER THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR OF A LONG ENOUGH DURATION
TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS) AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE(PER LATEST PV ANALYSIS) BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  ALSO...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS PROJECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LATER
TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE THAT ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY(PLEASE REVIEW LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW).  REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT(THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON...

WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE INCONSISTENCIES WITH REGARD TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...THEY CONTINUE TO BRING
A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE IN BETWEEN DAYS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A BIG...WARM RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER COLORADO. NORMALLY...THE WARMING
THAT IS BEING INDICATED IN THE UPPER LEVELS WOULD MEAN A COUPLE OF
VERY WARM AND DRY DAYS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY COULD INTERFERE WITH
THE WARMING PROCESS...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.

NOT A REAL CLEAR CUT CASE AS TO HOW MUCH SNOWFALL TO EXPECT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH ISSUES OF PRECIP PLACEMENT AND SNOW
LEVELS. THE PRECIP PLACEMENT BULLSEYES HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH EACH MODEL RUN...CURRENTLY FAVORING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD WITH H7 TEMPS TURNING JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS HEAVILY ENOUGH. IF THE PRECIP IS
NOT SO HEAVY...IT COULD REMAIN MAINLY RAIN BELOW ROUGHLY 5500
FEET. IN ANY EVENT...IF IT DOES SNOW...IT WILL BE THE HEAVY...WET
VARIETY. THIS BRINGS DIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
WILL IT TEND TO MELT AS IT FALLS? WILL IT ONLY STICK TO GRASSY
AREAS? WILL IT ACCUMULATE SEVERAL INCHES ON THE GRASS BUT REALLY
NOT POSE ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS BECAUSE IT IS MELTING ON THE ROADS?
BEING THAT IT IS A HEAVY...WET SNOW...WILL IT ACCUMULATE ENOUGH ON
VEGETATION...STRUCTURES OR UTILITY LINES TO CAUSE LOAD BEARING
PROBLEMS? OR...WILL IT PRETTY MUCH JUST MELT AS IT FALLS
EVERYWHERE...NOT CAUSING ANY REAL PROBLEMS? MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT.

IN ANY EVENT...GOT TO MAKE A FORECAST. SO...FOR RIGHT NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY
EVEN WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR THE PLAINS...THE FORECAST
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SNOW LEVEL ISSUE...BUT IT
APPEARS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD
SEE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY...WET SNOW...WHILE EVERYBODY
ELSE COULD POSSIBLY SEE AN INCH OR 2. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WON`T KICK IN UNTIL
LATE IN THE 3RD PERIOD...BUT FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REALLY BIG
WARMUPS...WITH H7 TEMPS SKY ROCKETING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 70S ON
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COVER IMPACTS
ON THE OVERALL WARMING. STILL...THOUGH...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD
TURN OUT TO BE PLEASANT SPRING DAYS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST TURNS WINTRY AGAIN. CURRENT
MODELS HAVE ANOTHER MAJOR SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHERN
COLORADO...DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM SPREADS A 1ST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A 2ND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LIKE
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO FAVOR
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AGAIN...SO WESTERN AREAS NOT
LOOKING UNDER THE GUN SO MUCH. A MAJOR DIFFERENCE WITH THIS STORM
FROM THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT STORM IS THAT LOOKS MUCH COLDER SO
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT IF IT COMES TO PASS.
BUT...THIS STORM IS STILL AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...SO
MUCH TO BE RESOLVED YET.  STAY TUNED. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS...COS AND PUB THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20KTS TO DEVELOP BY 20Z THU
AND PERSIST THROUGH 01Z. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFT 18Z FRI.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW