Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161025
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

...COOLER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS HAS SET UP A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES THIS MORNING....OWNING TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS (WITH A NICE
WIND SIGNATURE SHOWING UP IN REGIONAL RADARS) ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GRADIENT WINDS AND WAVE
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH RATHER MILD READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ATTM.

NO BIG CHANCES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS STATES...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE PASSING SYSTEM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO MODERATE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GRADIENT WINDS WEAKEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOLING 1-3C BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE HIGHS SOME 3-10F COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WILL STILL BE AT OR ABOVE MID
OCTOBER AVERAGES. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT WHICH SENDS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON TO FALL BACK TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
MOST LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WEAK ENERGY WILL THEN
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
AREAS BOTH SAT AND SUN. BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NM BORDER. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE...THOUGH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD FRONT
SUN AFTERNOON WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 1-5F ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.

UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME WEAK MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION GOING BOTH MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH COVERAGE
LOOKS SPARSE AND INTENSITY WEAK AT THIS POINT. BETTER MOISTURE AND
UPWARD MOTION ARRIVE WED AS MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. NOT SURE I BUY THE CUT-OFF LOW THE
00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH THU/FRI...BUT SOLUTION DOES SHARE
SOME SIMILARITY WITH 18Z RUN OF THE GFS.  WITH EURO TRENDING
TOWARD THE DEEPER/WETTER GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP WED/THU...AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGF ABOVE NORMAL
MON/TUE BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING WED/THU AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING TO WEAKEN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW


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