Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

As of 3 am a lot of cloud cover and some isolated showers continue
to linger over portions of the forecast area, but most of these
showers should end by 6 am. For today, an upr level ridge wl
centered ovr nrn CA, while an upr low sits ovr MN.  This wl leave N
to  NW flow aloft ovr the forecast area.  More stable conditions are
expected ovr the sern plains today, with afternoon lapse rates
forecast to range from about 6-7c/km, while ovr the hyr trrn lapse
rates are expected to be steeper. Lingering mstr and daytime heating
should lead to the development of showers and tstms ovr the hyr trrn
this afternoon. The upr flow should keep most of the activity ovr
and nr the hyr trrn, but some may showers/tstms may move out along
the I-25 corridor. Some light snow wl again be possible ovr the
higher mtn peaks. With cooler air in place today, high temps wl be
around 10 degrees below average over the sern plains, and around 5
degrees below average in the San Luis Valley.

Most of the pcpn should end by the late evening hours, with maybe
just a few showers lingering until around midnight ovr the far
southern mtn areas.  Overnight low temps should be slightly below
average, with readings mostly in the 50s ovr the ern plains with 40s
ovr the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Sunday-Monday...Weak westerly flow aloft across the region on Sunday
becomes more southwest and increases some through the day Monday, as
an upper trough digging across Pac NW continues out across the
Northern Tier. There remains enough moisture across the area on
Sunday to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
storms for areas over and near the higher terrain, with a few storms
possible across the far southeast plains Sunday evening, with
possible outflows helping to initiate convection. Models indicate a
slight increase in moisture along with a minor embedded disturbance
moving into western CO on Monday, which will bring better chances
of afternoon storms to the higher terrain along and west of the
ContDvd. Models continue to support locally heavy rainfall as the
main threat from storms into early next week. Warming aloft and
weak downslope flow to allow for temps to warm back to near
seasonal levels across the area on Sunday, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected on Monday, mainly across the eastern Plains.

Monday night-Wednesday...Passing upper trough across the Northern
Tier keeps chances of precipitation across western portions of
the area Monday night, with increasing chances of convection across
the area through the day Tuesday. Passing system also sends another
cold front across the eastern Plains Tuesday night, with some
increase in low level moisture bringing better chances of showers and
storms across all of south central and southeast Colorado Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures expected to cool back to at and
below late summer averages through the period.  Cooling aloft with
the passing trough will also allow for some possible light snowfall
over the higher mountain peaks Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Some differences in longer term models into the
upcoming weekend, though there looks to be a re-enforcing surge of
cool air across the area as secondary energy drops down across the
northern Rockies, keeping cool and unsettled weather across the area
on Thursday. The latest GFS keeps a broad trough with cool and
unsettled weather across the area on Friday and into Saturday, with
the latest ECMWF bringing warmer and drier westerly flow across
region into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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