Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 142357
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
557 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK REGION...

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CO HAS INITIATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING 150+% OF NORMAL IS ALLOWING FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AS EVIDENCED FROM RADAR KDP/S AND SPOTTER
REPORTS.  THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.  AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRAG ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...ENOUGH TO
ABATE SOME OF THE FLASH FLOOD RISK...BUT NOT ENTIRELY NEGATE IT AS
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN STILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS FOR THE BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.  THUS WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 9 PM.  BEEN A LITTLE HARDER TO GET
STRONGER CONVECTION GOING OUT WEST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
SUSPECT THAT THREAT THERE IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS STABILITY HAS
BEEN A FACTOR WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINFALL. WILL KEEP
THE WATCH GOING THROUGH THE PRIME HEATING HOURS...BUT SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN THE WATCH BY 6 PM FOR CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTIES AND THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR PIKES PEAK AREA
MAY BE ENDED BY 6-7 PM.  HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  APPEARS BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL CO (KIOWA COUNTY) AS LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGES ON THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS UP THAT WAY.  MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT AS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES EAST INTO KANSAS.

A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.  PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL DROP OFF BELOW 1 INCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
WESTWARD.  STILL LOOKING AT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SO STILL CAN`T RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN ON BURN
SCARS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.  BUT THREAT CERTAINLY LOOKS
LOWER DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STRONGER CELLS.
GRIDS WILL CARRY MORE OF A DIURNAL POP TREND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON...THEN DEVELOPING/SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WITH WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AND WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO WORK WITH
LATE SUMMER SOLAR HEATING TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY ROLLING ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BE GENERALLY HIGH BASED...THOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.
HARD TO PIN POINT BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH COULD SEE INCREASED
COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA LOOK TO BE GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE SUMMER
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE COULD BE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OPENING THE DOOR TO INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WITH THREAT FOR TSRA AT TERMINALS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 00-01Z.  CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF
IFR CATEGORY UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE
HAIL POSSIBLE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.  THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS TOMORROW AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
A FEW MAY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT/MW



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