Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 021756
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1056 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

WILL LET WARNINGS EXPIRE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND NORTHERN
TELLER COUNTY...AS STORM CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. KPUX RADAR STILL
INDICATING A FEW BURSTS OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY AND
INTO NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS WRAP AROUND SHIELD CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EL PASO COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW LIKELY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITTING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.  STRONG NORTH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL GENERALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 ACROSS THE PLAINS.  RADAR ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENTS
ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  AREAS SEEING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY SEEING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
PRODUCING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY 16Z.  AREAS
UNDER THIS ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  AFTER THE MAIN BAND MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS ARE INDICATING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING.  ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 16Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THE MOST FOCUSED SNOW OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE 20S.

TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM.  EXPECT MOST SNOWFALL TO COME TO AN END BY SUNSET OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES SEEING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE.  IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DECREASE EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT IS IN THE
FORECAST.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

...COLD NEXT FEW DAYS...

WITH THE FRESH SNOW AND COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY. ALSO...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A REPRIEVE TO ANY
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL
TRY TO WARM SOME ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THANKS IN PART TO SNOW COVER.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW BACK INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REACHING TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THIS SYSTEM LOOK SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME...NOT ANYTHING
LIKE THE POWERHOUSE THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH.

FRIDAY WILL BE COLDER AGAIN...WITH A FEW MORE INSTABILITY SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK SCATTERED AND
LIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...POSSIBLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE A BIT IN QUESTION RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS HAD A BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR AND LIGHT SNOW SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS KEEP THE MAIN PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR EAST OF
COLORADO. IT STILL LOOKS COLDER BUT NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WITHOUT SNOWFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS YESTERDAYS
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SEEING SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. AS FOR COS AND PUB...COULD STILL SEE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW AT COS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KTS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT BOTH SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH CANT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SECONDARY WAVE KEEPING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ058>063-
084-085.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW



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