Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
UTAH WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF IT.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SEEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WHICH HAVE
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE BASE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES...BUT AGREE
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS WED MORNING...HELPING
TO SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN ON THU...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TO THE
EAST AND NOW LOOKS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE QUAD OF COLORADO A LIKELY SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
WED...THEN TAPERING OFF ON THU. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS BOTH AGREE ON SLIDING
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON FRI...WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR SAT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHAT COMES NEXT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUN AFTN...WHICH WILL
HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AFTN
THROUGH MON. THE EC MODEL SWEEPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING
ISOLATED MT SHOWERS.  BOTH SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING
DIFFERENT...HAVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING ON MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...LEADING
TO SOME GUSTS AT KPUB AND KCOS FROM 20-30 KTS AFTER 09Z TUE. AFTER
A BRIEF LULL TUE MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRM THE
W-SW TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ALSO FROM 20-30 KTS THROUGH EARLY
TUE EVE. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE TB OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
RAMPARTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVE AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUE...AS W WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE MTS.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE


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