Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201016
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Currently...quiet and mild conditions exist across southern Colorado
early this morning with mid and high level clouds spreading over the
region.  Temperatures are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with a few degrees of cooling expected through sunrise.

Today...high pressure over Texas and weak troughing off the west
coast will keep persistent southwesterly flow across Colorado.
Moisture associated with tropical storm Paine embedded in the
southwest flow will keep mid and high level clouds across the area.
Energy embedded in the flow will likely lead to a few showers and
thunderstorms along the continental divide by late afternoon.
Lightning and gusty outflow winds will accompany thunderstorms.  Dry
conditions are expected over the plains today.  Temperatures will
remain hot with upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Tonight...not much change is expected to the upper pattern with
continued moist southwesterly flow over the region.  Models bring
better energy in the flow across Colorado overnight.  Expected an
increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage over the mountains,
especially after 02z, with most models ramping up precipitation
chances after 10z.  Models also indicating at least isolated shower
and thunderstorm activity spreading east into the eastern mountains
tonight, while the plains look to remain dry.  Overnight lows will
remain mild with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Weather will become more active during this long term fcst period as
a major trough affects the region. This system will bring gradually
increasing windy conditions to the region, with the strongest winds
on Friday. Precip will be gradually ramping up, especially along the
contdvd during the latter part of the week. It will remain quite
warm through Friday. A strong pacific front will move through the
region late Friday, and this may initiate a line of storms, which
may become strong along the CO/KS border. For the weekend, the
trough will hang back over the greater southern CO region, and this
may bring some needed precip to the area. Cooler weather will move
in for the weekend. It should start to dry out by early next week
with generally seasonable temperatures.

Wednesday...

Temps will be quite warm with 80s to around 90 on the plains...and
70s in the valleys. Precip will mainly be confined to the mountains,
especially along the contdvd. A few showers will be possible along
and south of a sfc trough which will extend from roughly Kim to
Eads. Breezy southwest winds will occur along and south of this sfc
trough.

Thursday...

Deepening 500 mb trough will be located over Nevada by Thursday
afternoon, and flow aloft over our region will be increasing. Main
sensible weather impacts this day will be increasing winds across
all of the region, as all areas will see gusty south to southwest
winds. Mountaintops will start to get quite windy. There should be
an uptick in precip all areas, especially along the mountains. It
will be quite warm again across the entire region, with 90s
widespread across the plains, and 70s valleys.

Friday...

It should be quite windy across the region on this day, especially
across the far southeast plains. Gusts to 40 mph will be possible.
It will also be quite windy in the mtns. A lind of showers and
storms should move across the region during the day and evening,
with some strong storms possible, especially across the far
southeast plains. Given the shear and strong forcing with the
trough, some of the storms could be severe, especially if the
atmosphere can destabilize (As per discussion with SPC, return of
quality llvl moisture is still uncertain attm).

Fire weather concerns will be high on this day. It appears RH values
will not be critical, but the strong winds will allow any fires that
develop to rapidly spread. This will be especially true of any
lightning started grass fires that initiate on the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...

Guidance indicates a piece of energy will hang back over the general
4 corners region for the weekend. GFS is more aggressive with a
closed low while the EC shows more a positive trough hanging back. In
either case, this should allow for an increase chance of precip over
the fcst area, especially over eastern and southern sections of the
forecast region.

Early next week...

Drier conditions and seasonable temps will prevail across the area.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all three
terminals.  Expect widespread mid and high level cloud cover across
the region with CIGS remaining VFR.  Winds will be southwesterly and
may see speeds nearing 15 kts this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain by late afternoon
into Wednesday morning, but do not look to impact any of the
terminals at this time.  Mozley

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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