Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 101145
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
445 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

...Big Changes Tonight...

Currently...an upper level storm system is spinning over Central
Arizona early this morning. This has spread southwest flow across
much of Southern Colorado. Observations along the Continental
Divide indicate snow falling, especially over the San Juan Range.
Breezy conditions exist over the mountain areas along with the lee
slopes of the Eastern Mountains which have kept overnight lows on
the mild side with 40s and even a few 50s along the mid slopes.

Today...the upper level storm system is forecast to move across
the Desert Southwest through this afternoon.  For the most part,
today looks like a pretty good day across the Plains, while snow
will fall over the mountains.  Models in decent agreement as far as
frontal timing and precipitation holding until the evening hours.
Southwest flow and mixing should allow temperatures to warm into the
mid to upper 60s for the Plains this afternoon.  An initial cold
front will drop south into the Palmer Divide by late afternoon with
a northerly wind shift.  Expect rain to begin breaking out over
Monument Hill as the front moves into the area.

Over the mountains, expect snow to continue through the day.  The
heaviest snow looks to remain over the San Juan range through this
afternoon where additional snowfall of 3 to 6 inches are expected.
From the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains, 2 to 5
inches are possible through this afternoon.  Expect precipitation to
move east into the San Luis Valley and Eastern Mountains by this
afternoon.  Snow levels will remain elevated, generally above 8 to 9
kft through this afternoon.

Tonight...the upper level storm system will eject northeast out of
New Mexico into southern Kansas tonight, while a trough drops south
out of Montana and across Colorado.  At the surface, a strong cold
front will drop south across the Plains during the evening hours.
Northerly winds gusting 40 to 50 mph are likely behind the front.
Models in good agreement with a band of precipitation dropping south
off the Palmer Divide, southeast across the Plains with the front.
Most high-res solutions have the bulk of the precipitation east of a
Trinidad to La Junta line.  Cold air will be slow to arrive, with
rain changing to snow later tonight once the main area of
precipitation along the front drops to the south and east.  That
being said, there could be some snow accumulations on grassy
surfaces over the Palmer Divide as well as the far Eastern Plains
near the Kansas border.  At this time, it appears that only about a
half an inch to an inch are possible.  Models in good agreement with
precipitation clearing the area by Thursday morning.  Temperatures
will fall into the 20s behind the front, so there could one a few
slick spots on area roadways for the morning commute.

Over the mountains, expect snow to wind down during the evening
hours with isolated to scattered snow showers late tonight,
primarily over the Central Mountains.  Additional accumulations of a
couple inches are possible by Thursday morning.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 441 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Northwest flow will dominate the forecast for the extended with
several shortwaves embedded in the flow moving across Colorado.
Thursday will be cold behind Wednesday nights departing system. The
next disturbance moves through late Thursday night and Friday
sending a round of light to moderate snow into the central
mountains, and a cold front through the southeast plains. Snowfall
totals could approach low end advisory numbers (4-8 inches) for the
Eastern Sawatch and Western Mosquito ranges, mainly north of
Cottonwood pass. Meanwhile, the plains should actually warm a bit
over the previous day due to better mixing from breezy northerly
winds behind the front.

Temperatures will drop back for Sunday again with below normal
temperatures. Then a stronger trough will rotate out of Canada
through the northern/central plains, Great Lakes region and upper
mid west. Models differ on the westward extent of the colder air
but both GFS and EC agree on bringing a shallow cold front through
the plains on Monday with the chance for light snow showers and
flurries. For Tuesday, cold air may stay entrenched across the
plains in upslope flow...and will maintain below normal
temperatures. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 441 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

KALS...VFR conditions with increasing mid and high clouds through
the afternoon.  Winds will increase out of the southwest and turn
northwesterly by late afternoon.  Showers will pass across the San
Luis Valley this evening and may impact the terminal with rain and
snow along with reduced VIS and CIGS.  Improving conditions are
expected after 05z with VFR conditions for Thursday morning.

KCOS...VFR conditions through this afternoon with mid and high
clouds.  A strong cold front will move across the terminal this
evening with north winds gusting in excess of 40 kts.  Rain, mixing
with snow may be possible behind the front in the 00z/Thur to
04z/Thur time frame with reduced CIGS and VIS.  Improving conditions
are expected late tonight into Thursday morning.

KPUB...VFR conditions through this afternoon with mid and high
clouds across the area.  A strong cold front is forecast to move
south across the terminal this evening with north winds gusting in
excess of 40 kts.  A band of rain may also move across the terminal
in the 00z/Thurs to 03z/Thurs time frame with reduced CIGS and VIS.
Improving conditions are expected overnight into Thursday morning.
Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ066.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ058-060.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ073-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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