Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

ADJUSTED POP...QPF AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO...LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

ADDED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO NORTHEAST EL PASO
COUNTY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO
FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HOW SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING WILL AFFECT OUR WX...

CURRENTLY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PREDOMINANTLY ALONG THE MTNS...WITH
THE ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST. ONE OR TWO STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED
ALONG THE RATON MESA. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS
APPROACHING NE COLO. CAPES WERE IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE ON THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES N OF US50. MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR WAS
NOTED OVER THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING WNW...STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS MOVING GENERALLY DUE SOUTH.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG THE MTNS
AND DOWN ALONG THE RATON MESA. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...MARGINAL SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER ABOUT 02Z...AREA WILL START TO BE INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AREA THE GREATER FAR NE COLORADO REGION. THIS WILL
BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE
COLO PLAINS. HOWEVER...HRRR DOES INDICATE ONE OR TWO ISOLD CELLS
MOVING S-SE CLOSER TO THE MTNS LATER THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION IS WITH THE KS
MCS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z.

TOMORROW...

LIKELY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PC SKIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT APPEARS THE
BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE THE S MTN REGION
(PIKES PEAK...WETS...SANGRES) AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY GENERAL THUNDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING HOW MUCH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE S MTN REGION...AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUANS. IF CAP CAN BREAK...THEN WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR OVER THE REGION.

TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 4-8F COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TREND WHEN IT COMES TO THE
ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FORECAST AREA LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE RIDGE UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH MAX
TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE
TUE AND WED.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER A BIT LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRI
NIGHT...OTHERWISE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY EACH DAY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE OVER THE MTS...AND ISOLATED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
DRIEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE MON AND TUE...AND THE
PLAINS ON THOSE DAYS MAY REMAIN PCPN-FREE. THE GFS IS INDICATING
THAT A COLD FRONT FORECAST FOR WED WILL BE A BIT SLOWER...ARRIVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS WILL INCREASE
CONVECTION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND
LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE LIKELY DONE FOR
TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY.

THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES ARE PROBABLY DONE FOR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. KCOS AND KPUB WILL
LIKELY SEE A RESURGENCE OF STORM ACTIVITY AGAIN TOMORROW...STARTING
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL...BY 18Z AT KCOS AND BY 21Z AT KPUB.
FOR KALS...MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN KCOS OR KPUB...BUT POSSIBLE
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM...PRODUCING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KALS WILL BE WEAKER...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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