Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 190022
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
622 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

In light of snow showers on Pikes Peak this afternoon, added in
latest Superblend snow amount forecasts which added a couple
inches of snow to the summit of Pikes Peak Friday afternoon and
evening. It also added lighter, generally trace amounts, at times
through the weekend. Also, adjusted short term grids with latest
observations, satellite and radar data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Currently...

Scattered storms were noted over the mountains while isolated storms
were occurring over lower elevations,especially over the divides.
Temps were on the warm side over the plains, with readings mostly in
the 85-90F range, while 60s and 70s were noted in the  valleys.

Aloft, weak westerly flow along with broad troughieness was over the
region. A much stronger trough was diving southeast into the greater
pacific nw region.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight...

scattered showers and storms are likely for the higher terrain into
this evening, with mainly more isolated activity for the plains and
valleys. Some locally heavy rain will be possible, but enough
westerly flow is over the region to keep the storms moving along.

during later this evening into tonight a weak boundary will move
down the plains and this will shift the winds to a northerly
component across the region. This front may also keep a few late
night showers going across all of the region. We will likely see
more clouds tonight but believe cigs should remain relatively high.

Tomorrow...

The best chance of precip tomorrow during the daylight hours will be
along the mtns/plains interface as weak but relatively deep upslope
flow occurs over the plains. Showers and thunder may form a bit
earlier than normal given the better instability and cooler temps
aloft. Flow aloft will increase significantly...but this increasing
flow will generally be above 500mb.

A more significant cool front will move down the plains during the
late afternoon as a relatively strong trough aloft moves towards the
region, and should be located over the Palmer Divide by 4 pm-ish.
This front may invigorate the precip over the plains and adjacent
mtns interface, and some locally heavy rain may be possible across
the Pikes Peak region by late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Friday night through Sunday...NW flow aloft continues across the
region over the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure sits over the
western US. Models persist in keeping upslope flow across the CWA
Fri night through Sunday, with the best window for pcpn from Fri
night through Sat. On Sunday, there will be another good shot for
convection, but it looks like it will be tied moreso to the eastern
mts and not as much for the plains. Activity across the e plains is
expected to continue overnight Fri into Sat as the upslope persists,
with perhaps a brief lull Sat morn between 12-18z before activity
picks up again. Look for max temps in the 70s on Sat, then climbing
back up into the 80s for the plains on Sun.

Monday through Thursday...The upper high weakens and flattens,
sliding across Colorado on Monday. Models then indicate that another
broad upper trough will develop over the western US. This will allow
moisture to be drawn back into western Colorado, fueling more
convection over the higher terrain each afternoon and eve. Activity
across the e plains is forecast to be isolated at best through the
week. Max temps are expected to climb into the mid 80s to 90s each
aftn for the plains, and 70s for the high valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Overall, vfr conditions are anticipated over the next 24h at all 3
taf sites, kpub, als and kcos. Late afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms will be possible, with brief periods of mvfr due to
cigs/rainfall. A better chance of showers and storms will occur
tomorrow as a cool front moves down the region later tonight...and
upslope flow develops tomorrow. Winds could get gusty late tomorrow
afternoon at KCOS and KPUB as a secondary front pushes through the
region. This secondary cool surge may allow for stronger storms to
affect the KCOS and KPUB taf sites late in the afternoon and early
evening hours. These storms will bring a better chance of mvfr/maybe
brief IFR/conditions to the KPUB and KCOS airports.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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