Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190518
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

...Dry and Unseasonably Warm...

Dry westerly flow will bring dry and unseasonably warm weather to
the region for the next 24 hours.  Skies will be clear to mostly
clear with no precipitation expected.  Lows tonight will range from
a little above to a little below average for this time of year.
Highs on Monday will generally be 10 or more degrees above average.
Here are some numbers for tonight and Monday...

Location.............Forecast..........Normal............Record
.....................Low/High.........Low/High..........Low/High

Colorado Springs......53/85............46/73........25(1971)/90(2010)
Pueblo................49/91............46/80........29(1971)/98(1980)
Alamosa...............32/82............36/72........20(1988)/84(2010)

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Main longer term meteorological challenges continue to be temperatures
...pops and gusty winds/fire weather concerns at times.

Latest longer range forecast model soundings...PV
analysis and computer simulations continue to indicate that zonal
to southwesterly upper flow will continue over the forecast
district from Monday night into Friday night with precipitation
chances increasing from later Tuesday into Wednesday as deeper
atmospheric moves into the region from the southwest.

In addition...relatively deep closed upper low located over
western Nevada at 18Z Thursday shifts into western Wyoming by 18Z
Friday before making its way into North Dakota next weekend.

This system is expected to generate increasing gradient winds as
well increasing fire weather concerns...especially from later
Thursday into at least Friday. As always...WFO PUB will monitor
closely.

Also...increased pops at times(favoring western portions of the
CWA) and cooling temperatures are anticipated from later this week
into next weekend.

Regarding temperatures...both maximum and minimum temperatures
are projected to run above later September climatological
averages from Monday night into Friday across the majority of the
forecast district with temperatures then running near to below
later September climatological averages from Friday night into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Dry conditions will continue acrs the area thru at least the next
24 hrs and VFR conditions can be expected at the terminal forecast
sites.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



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