Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 092255
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017

Will keep discussion relatively brief due to current active
meteorological conditions. Forecast district continuing to note
very windy conditions as noted by 12:02 PM 80 mph all-time record
wind gust at KCOS which broke previous February 3rd, 1999 record
of 78 mph. In addition, well above early to mid January seasonal
afternoon temperatures also noted over many eastern locations with
temperature nearing or exceeding 60F. Also, snow and gusty winds
also noted over Continental Divide locations, favoring the
central mountains.

For sensible weather, recent radar wind signature returns, real-
time data, PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model
soundings indicate that gusty winds will continue into the early
evening hours, especially over the southern I-25/eastern slopes of
the southern mountains location. Have extended previous high wind
warnings for EL Paso, Teller and Pueblo counties from 5 PM until 8
PM MST(although would not be surprised if warnings need to be
brought down earlier than 8 PM MST). In addition, will maintain
the 8 PM MST High Wind Warning ending time for southern I-25
corridor locations.

Also, have maintained existing Winter Storm Warnings over
Continental Divide locations until 11 AM Tuesday as several
additional inches of snow in combination with gusty winds expected
into Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday, anticipate decreasing winds and precipitation over
the forecast district in combination with continued generally
above seasonal early to mid January temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017

Weather pattern to remain very active during this period as storms
continue to roll in off the pacific in the active westerly flow.
Snow will likely fall along the contdvd from the beginning of this
long term fcst period into Saturday. Some of this snow will be
heavy. Elsewhere, conditions on the plains will be mild and
breezy/windy through Thursday, with colder weather (and a chance of
some precip) on the plains Friday and Saturday).

Wednesday...

Warm and wind conditions are expected across the lower elevations.
Fcst soundings are once again showing a wind profile favorable for
potentially damaging winds as a mtn top inversion is indicated along
with notable reverse shear. At this time, the magnitude does not
look as strong as the event that is occurring as I write this AFD.
the strongest winds will occur in the morning.

The mountains along the contdvd will see another round of heavy wind
driven snow, and another 1 to 2 feet of snow is likely for the
central mountains, with lesser amounts across the sw mtns. Note that
hilites will be needed for this event, but due to the very active
weather ongoing across the greater Colorado region at this time, we
(along with surrounding WFO`s) will hold off on issuing new hilites
until later this evening or tonight. The snow along the contdvd will
decrease later Wednesday.

Thursday...

The next system will begin to affect the region on this day. This
system will affect most if not all of the region as a broad trough
develops over the greater 4 corners region. heavy snow, especially
along the sw mtns, is expected to develop. The plains will get into
the act as a canadian front moves down the plains and upslope
deepens by late in the day. Precip will be possible along the I-25
corridor by late in the day and last into the night. Temps this day
will be seasonable. winds all areas will be significantly less than
the last past several days.

Friday...

Closed low drops south of the 4 corners region. Overall best chance
of precip will be during the morning across the region. This day
will be cold with highs only in the 20s and 30s across the plains.
San Luis Valley may be the warmest location on this day as
(relatively) warmer air will advect into the SLV from the southwest.

Saturday...

closed low will move east across central/southern New Mexico. This
will keep most of the area dry, although the southern part of the
fcst area (especially the se Plains) may see some precip on this
day. Temps will be cool, so snow will be possible all areas.

It should be noted that the exact track of this weather system still
needs to be decided. If it tracks farther north, then we will see a
better chance of precip across the fcst area.

Sunday into next week...

Trough is fcst to lift to the northeast in pieces. This may allow
for a continued threat of some precip over the area, with the best
chance over the far se plains. As mentioned above, if trough lifts
more to the north then east, then we may see a better chance of
precip over all of the fcst area. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 355 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017

Strong winds are expected to continue over the KCOS and KPUB taf
sites until approximately 02Z-03Z in combination with LLWS at KCOS
until approximately 08Z. Winds are then expected to decrease at
KALS...KCOS and KPUB into Tuesday in combination with VFR
conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday for COZ058>060-066-
068.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ072>075-
078>088.

&&

$$



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