Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
448 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Dry, Mild, High Clouds, Breezy East Slopes Tonight...

Dry westerly flow under a broad ridge of high pressure next 24
hours. High clouds visible in satellite upstream over the Great
Basin will make their way east across the forecast area. This will
result in some high clouds at times. Otherwise, it`s looking dry and
mild by late November standards. After a chilly start this morning,
afternoon highs will rebound to above average levels this afternoon.
Lows tonight will be fairly typical for this time of year.  It may
get a bit breezy in a near the foothills overnight as the flow aloft
increases and surface pressure gradients build along the east slopes
of the mountains.  Gusts to 40 mph possible in favored locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Still project that basically dry conditions(outside of the
potential for some light snow over portions of the central
mountains Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning) in
combination with well above seasonal later November temperatures
will be noted over the forecast district during the longer term as
varying degrees of dry northwesterly upper flow/upper ridging and
eastern Colorado lee-side troughing influence southern Colorado
from Monday into next Saturday. In addition, localized/spotty fire
weather concerns will be possible at times.

Recent computer simulations, PV/precipitable water analysis and
forecast model soundings still indicate that light snow will be
possible over portions of the central mountains(primarily from
Monday night into early Tuesday morning), with other locations
of the forecast district remaining dry during the longer term.
Otherwise, gusty winds at times are anticipated from late Monday
into Tuesday, helping to increase localized fire weather
potential. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

It still appears that the warmest temperatures(with maximum and
minimum temperatures running approximately 10F to 25F above later
November climatological averages over many locations) during the
longer term over the forecast district should be experienced
Monday and then again from Wednesday into Friday(with maximum
temperatures challenging 70F over some eastern locations). Coolest
temperatures(although still above climatological averages) are
expected Tuesday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 448 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Dry westerly flow across flight area next 24 hours. Westerly wind
gusts to 40 mph possible near the mountains tonight. VFR expected.
This includes the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.





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