Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Updated for aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFS.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

While a flat mid level ridge builds into the PAH forecast area,
a persistent southwesterly wind in the low levels will keep
moisture stirred up, providing dry and unseasonably warm
conditions through Monday night. There will be some cloudiness,
and possibly some virga, mainly over southeastern MO/southern IL,
on Sunday associated with a mid level disturbance.

A southerly surface wind will persist through the period, gusting
to 15 to 25 mph Sunday afternoon, especially in southeastern MO
and southern IL. Even higher wind is expected Monday as lower
surface pressures over the central Plains contrast with the higher
pressures of a persistent ridge of high pressure centered over the

Under this warm advection pattern, we may break high temp records
for the date on Monday at many locations, as upper 80s are

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Main weather stories in the extended will lie with near record
warmth to start the period (Tuesday), then with a transition to a
wet and finally much cooler period later next week.

A large dome of high pressure in the mid/upper levels of the
atmosphere and centered over the Gulf coast states on Tuesday will
continue to funnel dry and unseasonably warm conditions into the
region. Many locations will likely flirt with record high
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s, and would not be too surprised if
a few sites flirt with the 90 degree mark. Temperatures do tend to
surge a bit in pre-frontal subsidence regions like we will likely be
in on Tuesday.

However, a cold front will approach the region Tuesday night/Wed as
the high pressure aloft shifts east toward the se U.S. coast. The
front will not have much moisture or mid lvl forcing to work with at
first, so precip chances will stay fairly low through most of Wed.
The front will likely become stationary for a bit as upper steering
flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a developing trof out over
the Plains. This trof will eventually interact with the frontal
boundary Wed night/Thu, increasing precip chances considerably as
the front begins to move se across the region. It now looks as
though much of the precip will occur in the post frontal environment
Wed night/Thu, so it`s looking more like a stratiform rain event as
opposed to convective/thunderstorm event.

Models diverge somewhat on whether we will dry out behind the front
(operational ECMWF) with a deep upper trof scooting just east of our
region Friday, or whether things will remain unsettled (GFS) with an
upper low closing off farther to the west. What does seem a bit more
certain is the a deep upper trof will be carved out somewhere close
to the region, leading to a turn to below or possibly even much
below temperatures Friday into next weekend.


Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A robust southwesterly wind at 850 mb will continue through the
24 hour TAF period. This should provide southerly surface winds of
at least 10 knots during the daylight hours on Sunday with gusts
up to 20-25 mph likely. Winds should stay up enough overnight
though to preclude widespread fog development. Low level
cloudiness will invade the area after 12Z Sunday and provide VFR
cigs across mainly southeastern MO/southern IL. Any gusty wind
behavior should subside shortly after 00Z Monday.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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