Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 041923

223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Latest visible satellite shows clouds continuing to decrease from
the east, with some thinning beginning over extreme southeast
Missouri, and expect this trend to continue into this evening.
Relative humidity time heights indicate much of this low level
moisture will linger over the next few days across the PAH
forecast area. This will likely lead to some fog development
overnight, and cumulus development during the day. Models show
weak upper level ridging over our region into mid week, which will
keep us dry with a warming trend, with temperatures already above
normal by Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Wednesday through Thursday should be dry as the models weaken a mid
level ridge across the area while surface high pressure moves east.
The models show a mid level wave developing over the northern tier
of states, dropping SE Thursday through Friday. The GFS and slightly
faster versions of the ECMWF were used for timing. Increasing
convective chances from NW to SE Thursday night, PoPs area wide
Friday with a front moving through. Models have it out of here by
Friday night. Kept slights SE 1/2 but that`s probably overdone. Also
removed all weekend PoPs given the models aggressive trend toward a
drier solution. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.


Issued at 1208 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Gradually improving cigs from east to west through the afternoon
and early evening from MVFR/IFR category. NNE winds around 10 kts
through sunset will become light tonight. Some of the models are
still pessimistic with low level moisture overnight, so confidence
is low in overall clearing. Will use a trend forecast approach.
Less cloud cover and lighter winds tonight may also result in some
fog. To what degree is very uncertain at this time.



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