Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 050745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

A deep upper level low will move from the Ohio Valley into the
southeastern U.S. today. Deep cyclonic northerly flow will result
in cooler than normal temperatures today. A substantial amount of
cloud cover is also expected across the eastern half of the area,
including much of southwest Indiana, southeast Illinois, and the
Pennyrile region of western Kentucky. Sunshine should be more
predominant further west. This will result in a rather large
temperature gradient this afternoon, as high temperatures range
from the lower 60s in southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile
to the lower 70s across the Missouri Ozarks.

In the wake of the departing low, a large ridge of high pressure
will migrate eastward from the Plains through late week. This will
result in dry weather and more sunshine Friday and during much of
Saturday. By late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, the ridge
will be suppressed to the south by a deepening low over southeast
Canada. A cold front is forecast to drop south into the area by
Saturday night, which will bring the chance of showers and
thunderstorms back to northern and eastern portions of the area
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

A moderating trend is expected through the short term. Highs will
warm back into the 70s on Friday and then the lower 80s by Saturday.
Lows will warm from the 40s tonight into the 50s Friday night, and
then near 60 Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

An unsettled period is forecast. Model preference includes more
weight given to the ECE, minor GFS incorporation Sun/Mon. For
Tuesday through Wednesday relied more upon the ECM/GEFS and some GEM
incorporation. At the beginning of the period the models and their
ensemble mean solutions are in decent agreement based on 00z/12z
data. However as the h5 low at the beginning of the period over the
west U.S. heads east, it becomes increasingly unclear how the
pattern will evolve.

A surface front is forecast to be somewhere across our CWFA Sunday
through early Monday. After that, it`s forecast to lift NE and we
warm sector through Wednesday. For Sunday and Sunday night, best
chance PoPs for convection will be over northern areas. For Monday
through Monday night, the focus will be increasing PoPs from the
west as upper level energy approaches. For Tuesday through
Wednesday, chance PoPs for convection will continue given the active
pattern and available moisture. It will be warm and seasonably humid
through the period. Used an operational/ensemble MOS blend for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

As an upper low drops south across the Ohio Valley into the
southeastern U.S. today, more cloud cover is anticipated across
the eastern terminals, where broken to overcast VFR ceilings could
teeter with MVFR levels by mid to late morning. Further west, a
period of VFR ceilings is expected at KPAH and perhaps KCGI around
midday, but clouds should largely be scattered through much of
the day. Northerly winds will pick up to 10 to 15 knots with gusts
into the 20s. Winds should subside Thursday evening as skies
clear.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP



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