Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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489
FXUS63 KPAH 241930
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Targets of Opportunity this forecast are tonight-early Saturday,
with the cold fropa. Winds Mon-Tues, ahead of the next system. And
that next system`s track/pcpn chances, during the extended mid
week period.

Tonight-early Saturday...the cold front currently bisects Iowa,
and it`ll drop fast/hard later tonight. Moisture does surge ahead
of it, but with such a dry column, esp below 700 mb, it`ll be hard
pressed to reach the ground as pcpn, despite numerous short res
models trying to do just that. We`ll keep our sprinkles going
overnight with its passage, and this could linger into early
Saturday morning in our farthest southeast counties.

Weekend/early next week...after the front`s passage, we return to
seasonal, if not remaining still seasonally mild, for temps this
Holiday weekend, with surface high pressure migrating across the
Tennessee valley. Its eastward shift Monday-Tuesday will allow for
the gradient to tighten as the next system starts taking shape in
the Plains. We`ve ramped up the winds a little as a result, in
collab with our neighbors, as we have the past couple day shifts.
Consraw/consmos seems to be a consensus solution blend.

Mid week system...the favored Euro`s further northward solution
appears to be winning, with the 12Z deterministic GFS finally
moving that direction. This sets the stage for a liquid only pcpn
event, with main collab efforts focused on the still arguable
timing differences, perhaps best solved by the blend. The
departing pcpn chances, however, appear bogged down in a too long
to linger blend pop/into Friday, when all the 12Z data shows the
system definitively out Thu night. As a result, collab efforts
yielded an end time of pcpn in our west at 00Z Friday, central by
06Z Friday, east by 12Z Friday, blended accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions for all sites through the valid time of tafs. A few
high clouds will continue across the area with some mid level
clouds coming around 00z as wind gusts subside. Finally we will
have fropa with a wind shift to the northwest Saturday after 12z.
Late in the day we could start to see some gusts from the
northwest. We will monitor closely. Cant rule out a sprinkle or
two but should have very little impact on operations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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