Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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736
FXUS63 KPAH 181713
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CONFIDENCE GENERALLY DECREASES AS WE HEAD INTO WED/WED NIGHT.

COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF STL AROUND MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SE TO AROUND THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
SOUTH BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 03Z. MID LEVEL FORCING
IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MEEK. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHOULD BE A DRY AND PLEASANT TIME PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
DEVELOP OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT...AND MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE REGION ON WED. OP GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW MUCH QPF DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT HEAD OF THE SFC LOW WED...ESP OVER SE MO.
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT EITHER WAY AS OF NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A FRONT...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA ENDING.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 MPH GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AOB 10 MPH AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH



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