000
FXUS63 KPAH 281130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

The small patch of MVFR ceilings in the kowb/kevv areas has all but
disappeared as of 11z. VFR conditions should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
late today. Cigs will lower tonight, but should still remain at or
above 10k feet.

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to around
10 knots this afternoon. Gusty surface winds and/or llws are
possible late tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to
around 50 knots at 5k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY