Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190536
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The short term sees a shift to the next winter wx system, that
being the Friday night system. Each successive model run this
week, almost without exception, has seen our pcpn amounts and
chances decrease, as notably, the surface low track has shifted
slightly further south with time. Even the furthest north track
yields less than inch totals, with the broader envelope inclusive
of less than half inch totals. In fact, much of the northern half
of the region could see little more than trace amounts. We`ve thus
gone ahead and made these general adjustments for this package.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

We will start out the latter half of the weekend with broad
southwest flow over the area as a trough in the Central Plains moves
east. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will move into the
northern Plains by Sunday night. The associated low pressure system
will dive southeast toward the Midwestern states. The GFS is faster
in bringing this system toward the area but it still looks like
chances for rain will exist sometime on Monday. However, it appears
there are better chances on Monday into Tuesday when another lobe of
energy swings through. This lines up well with the GFS ensemble
precip mean. Although models have some timing differences, these
periods are where we already have the highest POPs so only minor
adjustments needed. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be normal
to above normal with highs in the 40s to near 50. Tuesday may be a
day where we see temperatures falling throughout the day as the
upper trough moves toward the area.

By Tuesday night, the trough moves right over the area and colder
air continues to filters in. However, the bulk of the precipitation
leaves the region as this occurs. So aside from some sprinkles or
snow showers, right now, it appears that nothing major will be going
on Tuesday night.

on Christmas Eve, the main trough shifts eastward but enough
moisture might be available for some flurries or light snow showers
especially in the east. By Christmas Day, the upper flow flattens
out and we may even warm up a bit. But we could be dealing with
activity by Christmas night...we`ll be watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

KCGI will see MVFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys through mid morning,
improving to VFR conditions by around midday. At KPAH, VFR
conditions are expected to dip to MVFR late tonight, improving
back to VFR by 15z. KEVV/KOWB may briefly dip to MVFR between 08z
and 13z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds at all sites
will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...RST





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