000
FXUS63 KPAH 231718
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Friday High temps again topped out in the lower half of the 90s
region-wide. Nearly the same synoptic setup is in store for today,
so we`ll bump guidance nos up a degree, maybe two, to score 90s.
Patchy morning fog again too.

We start to get more influence from the upper Low pressure area
that develops and drifts across the lower Mississippi river valley
by Sunday. The return flow around the high shifts our lower trop
to sely-slys, and the height falls associated with the Low should
be just enough to touch off some showers/storms with the diurnal
aid of the pm heating hours, as dew points hover in the mid and
maybe upper 60s in our south. A few more clouds, some spotty
convection, should result in temps topping out a degree or two
lower than the preceding day(s), so we`ll go with around 90 for
Sunday afternoon, with our isolated shower/storm chance
concentrated mainly on our southern counties.

High pressure tightens its grip across the Ohio river valley
Monday, even as Maria works toward it, just off the Southeast
coastline. Our lower Mississippi river valley Low pressure zone
aloft appears to be losing its identity somewhat, although
lowering heights from the High suggest at least a teleconnected
relative Low, even if its identity is masking. The net effect may
be still for an isolated chance, particularly for the SEMO
counties, but at this writing, a dry or at least silent pop
forecast appears to be trending. Monday temps should be similar to
Sunday/top out around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue Tuesday into Tuesday
night with south winds ahead of a cold front.  Highs will reach into
the upper 80s Tuesday, with lows Tuesday night in the middle 60s.

The ECMWF brings the cold front across the middle Mississippi and
lower Ohio valleys Tuesday night into early Wednesday, while the GFS
is a little slower bringing the front through our region.  Where the
models do agree is that there will be minimal precipitation chances
with its passage due to lacking moisture.  Going with a compromise
on the timing, included just some slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday morning across mainly our southern counties.

The main effect of the frontal passage will be a significant cool
down from well above to a little below seasonal temperatures.  With
mostly sunny days, mostly clear nights and low humidity, highs by
Thursday and Friday will be generally in the middle 70s, with lows
Thursday night in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Other than some shallow fog again late tonight, VFR conditions are
forecast through midday Sunday. Winds will be light from the east.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$