Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181154

654 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Issued at 654 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The convection over southwest Missouri is sagging southward and
should not pose any problems for our area. Another less impressive
band of convection was located from northwest Tennessee southeast
into northern Alabama. Much of the 00Z guidance generates some QPF
along this line farther northwest into southeast Missouri toward
12Z. The NAM and GFS soundings indicate very meager elevated
instability that could support a thunderstorm in our far western
counties early this morning. Will have just a slight chance in the
far west through about 14Z, but it is highly likely that the entire
area will remain dry this morning.

500mb heights really climb tonight into Friday, as the upper ridge
builds eastward into the region. At the surface, high pressure
will continue to dominate through the day Friday. A weak surface
trough may move east into the Pennyrile region late Friday or
Friday night. There will be increased low-level moisture east of
this trough, and it would not be surprising to see some
drizzle, light showers or sprinkles near this trough over the
Pennyrile late Friday night or early Saturday. Will keep the
forecast dry, as the 00Z models are mostly dry, but will continue
to monitor as it gets closer in time.

Saturday the upper ridge gets flattened out, but the 500mb flow is
still very weak through the day, so the cold front will stay well
northwest of the area. South winds will finally develop, as the
cold front approaches and the high shifts east. Saturday will be
quite warm with some mid and upper 80 highs likely. The humidity
is also likely to be on the rise through the day.

As for temperatures, generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs today and Friday due to the surface high holding strong
over the region. Trended toward the warm side of guidance for
Saturday. Generally stayed on the mild side of guidance for lows
tonight and Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Extended forecast trends more and more toward ECMWF and GFS Ensemble

Will continue idea of holding off most of the precip with the cold
front over the weekend until mainly after midnight Saturday Night.
Feel convection will enter the northwest sections prior to midnight
and slowly spread southeast overtaking the entire CWA during the day
on Sunday. Rainfall amounts are a real question. All models keep
most areas less than 1/4 of an inch. Isolated pockets of heavier
rain likely with stronger convection. Concerned about tropical
moisture from the remnants currently over the southwest. Will this
moisture still be over our region on Sunday? Will continue to watch
at this point.

High pressure builds in by Monday, so expect dry weather through
midweek and probably into the early part of next weekend. Gradual
warming starts Wednesday and should continue until the weekend.


Issued at 654 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Surface high pressure will push back westward across the entire
area today. Northeast winds and a drying/clearing trend can be
expected. MVFR ceilings over southeast Missouri should lift to
VFR levels late this morning. Guidance seems too pessimistic on
the clearing at KCGI and KPAH, and too aggressive on fog
formation tonight at KCGI. Won`t be surprised to see a bit
stronger northeast winds than currently forecast today, and a
more persistent wind through the night.




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