000
FXUS63 KPAH 231153
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
653 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

An amplifying upper flow pattern will aid a cold front across the
region today. Accompanying frontal passage is a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Mesoscale models have been greatly overdone
with respect to upstream convection over the past 24 hours, and
they suggest lesser coverage locally today. In addition, a decent
mid level capping inversion of warm air aloft (700 mb temperatures
around 10C) should limit the formation and maintenance of deep
convective updrafts. As a result, coverage of activity that
develops today should be rather hit and miss. By the end of the
day, I suspect many locations will be left without any rain. As a
result, we further reduced probabilities to 30 percent at best in
most areas.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
this evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region overnight and Thursday as high pressure builds south from
Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, Thursday
looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower 80s under
plenty of sunshine. Lows Thursday night should range in the upper
50s. Moisture return will begin in earnest on Friday as the upper
level trough and surface high begin to shift to the east. Any
precipitation should stay north of the area until Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Subtle changes to the long term. Overall, the same pattern
evolution is forecast. The models amplify the ridge out west and
trof over the east U.S. by early next week. Friday night into
Saturday, still looking for a warm front to move through, with best
moisture and subtle forcing possibly bringing convective chances to
the NE part of the region. It looks capped farther west toward the
MS river into SEMO. Cannot rule out additional convection Saturday
that may be diurnally enhanced, with better chances ENE part of the
region toward the KEVV tri-state. Same holds true for Saturday night.
Sunday a frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area, and
gradually reach NE AR into NW TN by 12z Monday. Have slightly higher
PoPs in the forecast with front. We raised high temps Saturday into
Sunday as well given latest numerical output. Isolated strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out. Given the forecast convective
indices and shear, time of year, and what`s seasonally normal,
should not be a major threat. No PoPs in for Monday through Tuesday
in the wake of the front, and with high pressure building in from
the NW. The high will return temps to below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 653 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A cold front will pass across the area today. Accompanying the front
is the chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Of immediate concern, a complex of thunderstorms over the Wabash
Valley will impact KEVV and perhaps KOWB through mid morning. Early
morning activity should subside by mid to late morning, then storms
may refire along and south of the front this afternoon. In the wake
of the front, winds will swing around to the north/northwest as VFR
ceilings linger into the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP