Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 310746

245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

An upper level wave lifting across the Commonwealth today will
drag remaining showers/storms eastward and eventually out of our
area, albeit for a short-lived while.

Tonight-Labor Day now look essentially dry, as the next developing
weather system takes shape and approaches by Tuesday. Pops reenter
the forecast and spike to likely category Tuesday as the system
sweeps into the Quad State.

Temps remain in the 80s/near 90 for highs, with muggy lows in the
lower 70s holding true thru the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the extended forecast period, the mid/upper flow over the CONUS
will start out zonal, but should begin to transition to more of a
wswrly flow as a broad ridge rebounds over the srn CONUS, and nrn
stream shrtwv energy moves along the Canadian border and shears out
a bit. At the sfc, this will mean there will be a quasi-stationary
front in the vicinity of the PAH forecast area early on Wed. This
boundary is forecast to move newd as a warm front during the day and
Wed night, putting the area back into the warm sector. By Fri,
another sfc (cold) front is forecast to approach our region. By
sometime on Sat, it appears that the front will make its way through
the PAH forecast area, turning the low level flow from generally
south to north, allowing dewpoints and lows to eventually drop below
70 during the weekend.

Diurnal instability will be aided by these sfc boundaries, thus, the
periods with the higher PoPs for pcpn (around 40 percent) in the
form of showers and tstms will be Tue night/Wed and Sat. Deep moist
convection should be mainly isolated otherwise.

Ahead of the second frontal boundary, temps are expected to peak
around 90 degrees, dropping into the middle 80s by Sun. Summer
basically will continue.


Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will continue thru the early part of
the TAF forecast period as an upper level wave lifts
showers/storms across and eventually to the east of the terminals
today. The latter half of the period should see clearing skies,
but that could lead to another night of fog development with
restricted vsbys by tmrw morning, esp where the better rains fall.



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