Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300001
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
700 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Plenty of deep moist convection was occurring across central MO
this afternoon in the form of an MCS, while the PAH forecast area
was in the warm sector south of a retreating warm front, with low
level moisture advection continuing.

In the highly amplified pattern aloft, mid level heights over us
temporarily rose this afternoon in advance of a large area of low
pressure digging through NM. While most of the region is expected
to remain dry through about 600 p.m., much of southeastern MO and
parts of southwestern IL will probably experience numerous showers
and tstms by late afternoon and into the evening. Winds aloft
suggest the possibility of some tstms becoming severe, with
wind/hail the main severe hazards. This initial surge may abate by
midnight, however, models indicate that generally, southeastern
MO/southern IL will remain under the gun for shower and tstm
activity. The exact evolution of this activity remains somewhat
uncertain in the model solutions, though the NAM has done quite
well lately with pcpn fields.

As the aforementioned low deepens and heads toward the Great Lakes
during the day Sunday, the best focus for lift of moisture will
come right across the PAH forecast area, resulting in a very wet
day, with possible severe weather once again. The atmosphere will
begin to stabilize behind the sfc wind shift/dropping mid level
heights Sunday night as the pcpn ends in showers from west to
east. Noticeably cooler temps will prevail behind this system,
but not drastically so. Expect wraparound cloudiness Monday,
especially for the northern two-thirds of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Models show low pressure moving from Iowa into the Great Lakes
region on Monday into Monday evening, taking any lingering moisture
northward.  Weak high pressure will briefly give us dry conditions
Monday into Tuesday.

Models indicate a warm front lifting north toward our region late
Tuesday into Tuesday night.  The ECMWF and GFS take the warm front
into our far southeast counties midday Wednesday.  Based on the
these solutions, showers will quickly spread across the area Tuesday
night, with chances continuing into Thursday.  Model show a little
instability making it into our extreme southern counties during the
day Wednesday, and included some slight chances for thunderstorms in
these location.   The low associated with the front will push east
of our area on Thursday, so we should see precipitation tapering off
from west to east Thursday night.

A weak upper level disturbance may produce a few showers on Friday,
so included just some slight chances.  Temperatures through the work
week will be below seasonal normals, with the warmest day being
Tuesday when highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Southerly winds will continue this evening, increasing overnight and
Sunday, eventually gusting into the upper 20s kts. This evening and
overnight, in southeastern MO/southern IL, shower and tstm chances
are higher than in southwestern IN/western KY because of an existing
mesoscale convective system moving eastward. At this time, it
appears more convective activity will spread eastward during the day
Sunday, but there continues to be some uncertainty as to exactly how
this activity will evolve. Shower and tstm activity may result in
sporadic MVFR cigs overnight, but MVFR cigs should be common Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KYZ001>005-014-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...RS
AVIATION...DB


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