Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 240502
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1201 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A NW-SE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR ST LOUIS MISSOURI SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA FROM NEAR PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO NEAR FULTON
KENTUCKY. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE E-W ORIENTATION
THIS EVENING AND COME TO REST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
OUR CWA.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING SO THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHTNING
STROKES. A LACK OF INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PREVENT
THUNDER CHANCES.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
CWA AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF LULL (LOWER POPS) WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MUCH MORE VIGOROUS THAN THE
FIRST WITH GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.
DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THIS TIME FRAME SO MOST AREAS
SHOULD GET THUNDERSTORMS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

STARTING ON THURSDAY MORNING...A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT ON THE SURFACE IS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. AS THIS WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
EAST...THE CHANCES OF RAIN DROP FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...THE
TROUGH DEEPENS INDICATING THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST.
ENSEMBLE TABLES SUGGEST 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN
TEMPERATURE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WE WILL QUICKLY REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND OVERALL
HEIGHTS RISE OR REMAIN THE SAME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AS A SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION AND BECOMES DIFFUSE...NWRLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A SFC BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS MOST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A PREDOMINANT NRLY TO
NERLY WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS WITH A VFR CIG FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KCGI/KPAH) WILL QUICKLY
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NWD
AGAIN. THE POTENTIAL ON TUE FOR MVFR CIGS APPEARS LESS THERE THAN
THE NRN HALF (INCLUDING KEVV/KOWB). THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY BY THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE KEVV
TERMINAL. AFTER SUNSET TUE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ABOVE 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SW JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...PS
FIRE WX...DB
AVIATION...DB


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