Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS63 KPAH 161017
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
417 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

For FIRE WEATHER section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Mid/upper level ridging will take place through the MS/OH River
Valleys during the next 24-48 hours. This will result in a dry
weather pattern for the rest of the work week. Meantime, surface
high pressure sinking south toward the Gulf of Mexico will result
in an increase in southerly flow over the region, causing a
significant warming trend to get underway. After morning lows in
the mid 20s to near 30, temps this afternoon will warm well into
the 50s to lower 60s. By Friday afternoon, we should see readings
well into the 60s to near 70.

A southern stream upper low will eject northeast from the southern
Plains later Friday night and Saturday. Models vary somewhat on
the exact trajectory and strength of this feature, but most at
least generate some light QPF, especially over the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area late Friday night into
Saturday. Will carry chance POPs for now, but the chances may need
to be increased some with time. Nonetheless, should be a low
impact event. Extensive cloud cover will serve to hold
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

An upper level ridge will begin building into the region on Sunday,
as a deep trough moves into the southwestern US/Mexico. This will
send our temperatures soaring into the upper 60s to lower 70s as
850mb temperatures rise into the double digits in most areas by the
end of the day. This upper level ridge will begin shifting east on
Monday, as our next storm system moves into the southern Plains
states and eastern Mexico. So another day in the upper 60s to lower
70s is on tap for Monday.

On Tuesday, our next chance for precipitation arrives. The upper
level low associated with the trough to our west, will be situated
just off the coast of south TX by Tuesday afternoon. The northern
extent of this upper level trough is much weaker and should be of no
consequence. However, models are differing as to how far north
moisture gets lifted ahead of the aforementioned upper low off the
east coast of TX. With this slow moving system, if enough moisture
does get pulled northward, we could have several periods of rain,
lasting through at least Wednesday night. It looks like the GFS
model had backed off this idea for a while with previous runs and is
now more robust bringing in precipitation. The GFS ensembles sure
seem pretty excited about the prospects as well, as is the Canadian.
The ECMWF is much drier. How much of the area receives precipitation
will depend on the track of this system. Right now, the chance type
POPs will work. How much cloud cover and rain we receive will make a
difference in our high temperatures as well. We will maintain
readings in the 60s for now for the Tuesday through Wednesday time
frame. If we do end up drier...warmer temperatures, even into the
70s will likely result.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Light and
variable winds through 18Z, then will increase to AOB 10 knots
out of the south southwest with a few higher gusts possible at
KCGI between 15-00Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Mixing of dry air aloft down to the surface this afternoon will
likely push relative humidities down into the mid 20s to lower 30s
over much of the forecast area. In addition, southwest surface
winds will average 10 to 15 MPH this afternoon, with higher gusts
at times. This, combined with 10 hour fuel moistures at or below
10 percent, will result in very active burning conditions. Will
hold off on any Red Flag headlines for now due to the expected
marginal conditions. However, the situation will need to be
monitored in case burning conditions become more extreme.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP
FIRE WEATHER...GM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.