Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

000
FXUS63 KPAH 210740
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
240 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

High confidence in the short term.

The combination of clear skies, calm winds, and moisture trapped
below the nocturnal inversion has produced patchy dense fog over
portions of the quad state region. Hard to describe the areas
affected due to the random nature of where the fog has formed and
how rapidly it changes. Decided to issue a Special Weather Statement
to that effect until 14Z. Do not plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory
at this time.

Same old song, different verse in the short term period. High
pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is forecast through the
period producing dry, warm, and humid conditions.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

It always is a challenge to incorporate remote sensing sampling of
ocean area systems via satellite, aircraft, and ship reports and
ingest them into numerical model guidance. This evening`s model runs
suggest the first guess of the model guidance is with observations,
especially in and near California. Since the low and trough expected
to develop just west of the area next Monday will come from this
genesis region, there is some concern regarding model accuracy.

At this time, the 00z Wednesday ECMWF seems to have the best handle
on height, vorticity, and moisture advection, moving and closing off
in the Central Plains and the front range of Colorado. This still
holds of precipitation from reaching the WFO PAH forecast area until
late Sunday night. The vast majority of moisture appears to run
parallel with the trough axis, and will place rain chances further
west into parts of Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois through
next Wednesday, eventually moving small rain chances over the rest
of the forecast area next Thursday,as the baroclinic zone sharpens
with the cold air advection flow within the surface and upper low
across the Central Plains.

Little change made to the gridded sensible weather elements, except
to enhance the influence of the ECMWF in the regionally blended
model guidance suite.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Under high pressure at the surface, and ridging aloft, aviators
should expect light winds through the 24 hr TAF period, quite
variable in direction especially tonight, with a generally
easterly component on Wednesday but still below 10 kts. VFR
conditions can be expected during the daylight hours, however
vsbys may be restricted to IFR/LIFR by fog during the overnight
hrs, mainly over southern IL, southeastern MO, and adjacent parts
of western KY.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...CW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.