Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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506
FXUS63 KPAH 132321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
521 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

First question is just how cold will we get tonight?  Some
guidance has us mostly clear to partly cloudy, with others
bringing in more clouds, but with all showing light to calm winds.
Any areas with snow cover along with clear skies for any time
will see a big drop in temperatures. This makes tonight`s low
challenging. In areas with less snow cover and the better chance
of more clouds, basically west of the Mississippi River, went with
lows from 5 to 14 degrees. For the rest of our area, went with
lows from around zero to near 5 above zero.

On Sunday, a weak upper level trof may allow some light
snow/flurries to skirt the Ozark foothills of Missouri Sunday
morning, but the main effect will be increasing clouds from the
west. Approaching low pressure will shift our winds to the south
through the day Sunday. Temperatures will still only reach the
middle to upper 20s for highs, but the south winds Sunday night
will keep temperatures up, with lows in the lower 20s.

The approaching low will give our northern counties a chance of
light snow Sunday night, but the main show will be Monday into
Monday night. As the low slides to our north, the associated cold
front will spread light snow across our region from the northwest
through the day Monday. The best chances will be across southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky Monday
afternoon, and across west Kentucky Monday evening. Any lingering
chances will be confined to our southeast counties late Monday
night.

Overall, models show the front moving through fairly quickly,
which should help keep snow amounts less than yesterday`s event.
At this time, expected snowfall amounts are in the 1 to 2 inch
range across our northern half of counties, to a half an inch to
an inch in west Kentucky. Southern portions of southeast Missouri
may see only a few tenths. High temperatures Monday will be in the
30s, and our southern counties may see a rain/snow mix for a few
hours in the afternoon with temperatures above freezing, thus
lowering snow amounts.

Colder air will be quickly filtering in behind the front. Lows
Monday night will drop back into the single digits for most of
the region. Wind chills will be potentially dropping into the zero
to fifteen below zero range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

In the wake of a clipper system, skies are expected to clear
temporarily, but a scattered to broken stratocumulus deck will
probably reform by Tue afternoon mainly over the Evansville Tri-
State region. These clouds should linger through at least Wed
morning as a mid level trof axis moves into TN.

Another frigid airmass will sweep into the PAH forecast area behind
the front on northwesterly winds. By Wed afternoon, the center of
Arctic high pressure will be in our vicinity. As a result, with snow
on the ground, highs Tue and Wed will be in the teens and lower 20s,
with lows in the single digits to mid teens. The coldest morning
will be Wed, with negative single digit lows east of the MS River.
These numbers, which we are fairly confident about, are before wind
chill calculations are applied. An wind chill advisory should
eventually be issued for wind chills Tue and Wed morning ranging
from -15 northeast to -5 southwest.

Some moderation in temps/dewpoints should be seen by Thu afternoon,
as temps may rise above freezing over southeastern MO and parts of
western KY/southern IL under brief ridging or quasi-zonal flow
aloft. By then, southerly low level winds are forecast to start up
on the backside of the surface high.

The medium range models have understandably had a bit of difficulty
with the position/evolution/timing of a tight low pressure system
that may develop in the Gulf Coast region by late in the week.
However, this system may not affect us at all. Increased moisture
transport from the Gulf does look pretty likely by Sat ahead of a
large trof developing across the Rockies and central Plains. While
the warmup continues, there will be increased cloudiness and perhaps
some light rain showers on Day 7 (Sat, with a chance of a wintry mix
early.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions tonight through Sunday. Occasional mid clouds are
forecast. Light north winds will gradually become south,
southeast tonight through Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DB



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