Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240533

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1133 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Issued at 1128 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

For aviation section only.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Surface dew points are running drier than modeled this pm,
despite beginning to show signs of waa in our southwest. As a
result, we`ve adjusted immediate near term temps (this pm) upward
and dew points downward accordingly.

This morning we saw mid 20s, to near 30 degrees, for Lows. With
dew points tonight in the u20s-around 30, and weak waa, will go
for Lows in the lower 30s tonight. Visible shots show some high
clouds incoming from the High Plains, that may scatter about our
night-time skies as well.

WAA kicks in a little stronger Tue-Wed time frame. Dew points
should be rising through the 30s, to near 40 degrees. Deeper
seated moisture/pcpn will hold off, but the corresponding
moistening in the profile will be warming as well. We`ll see highs
rise through the 50s tmrw, and push 60 degrees for Wed. South
winds will pick up a little better by Wed as the surface high
eases off to the east and a developing rain system approaches from
the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

With the East Pacific closed circulation finally moving onshore in
Northern California, there may be some finality on the timing of
the precipitation moving into the region on Thanksgiving Day. Last
week, the leading edge of the precipitation did not move into the
area until Thursday morning, now it is running 6 to 9 hours ahead
of that schedule.

Despite that timing difference, still have greater confidence for
the onset of rain Thanksgiving day into Friday. However,
confidence goes down substantially over the weekend and into
Monday, as both the ECMWF and GFS vary significantly on the
development and movement of the re-energized closed low over
northern California Saturday. Both have impact on the degree and
intensity of Southern U.S. ridging that develops northward toward
the WFO PAH forecast area. The regionally initialized model blend
weighs heavily toward the GFS deterministic/ensemble component,
especially Sunday through Monday. From a collaboration standpoint,
will still have to include a chance for showers through the
weekend, tapering off from the west into Monday. Would not be
surprised if PoPs go down further until the ECMWF/GFS and resolve
the interaction from the reformed California low and the northern
stream shortwave moving over the Great Lakes and Northeast.


Issued at 1216 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

High pressure will continue to bring generally clear skies and
light winds to the region through the 06Z TAF period.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.