Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 271742
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE VERY LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDUPS INCREASING ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS OF 17Z...WHICH SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS FAR AS TEMPS...HIGHS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE OBSERVED TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/ACROSS WKY AT THIS WRITING...WILL
EFFECTIVELY FROPA FA BY BEGINNING OF FORECAST. WHILE THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS WAKE...NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY STILL HELP INDUCE ISOLATED DIURNALLY FLARED STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHANCE MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE DO ANTICIPATE THE L60S DEW POINTS PERCHED JUST
UPSTREAM TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THIS COOLER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (SUN NITE-MON NITE)...MEAN
ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPILLS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF AND SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CHANCE
POP FOR US AS ITS ENERGY PINWHEELS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN THE SOWDY2-3 GRAPHIC OUTLOOKING
MARGINAL RISK FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE`LL UP POPS
ACCORDINGLY/COLLABORATIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS PERIOD IS PUNCTUATED BY A SERIES OF EXTREMELY LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CHANNELED VORTICITY PROVIDES
SUFFICIENT LIFT WITHIN THIS ZONE FOR THERMAL INSTABILITY...SUBJECT
TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE FEEING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE
HIGH. THE OVERALL POP FORECAST WILL BE CONTIGENT ON THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK, THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON MOISTURE ADVECTIION WITHIN THE
FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR WHICH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN FLOW HAS NOT CHANGED SO DIURNAL/NON-DIURNAL
POP CHANCES REMAIN REASONABLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...GIVEN THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES THAT MAY DISRUPT THE
FLOW NEXT WEEK.

OTHER THAN THE COLLABORATED BLENDED GUIDANCE...LEANED A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BASES REMAINING IN THE VFR CATEGORY. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY AROUND SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT FOG MAY FOR AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL POP UP AND ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MY
AVIATION...MY
LONG TERM...SMITH



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