Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 131150
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Northwest winds continue to gust up to 20kts or so at times early
this morning, but temperatures are holding in the teens, so wind
chill readings are staying above zero. Some areas may hover near
zero toward daybreak. The low clouds area rapidly dissipating from
the north and are currently confined to west Kentucky. There has
been some flurry activity within this layer of clouds.
Extrapolating satellite trends indicates that they should clear
the entire area by daybreak, leaving just some scattered cirrus.

It is looking like much of the area should see a decent amount of
sunshine today, but there is some potential for at least scattered
mid-level clouds at times. Temperatures will struggle to get to
the lower 20s over the snow and ice pack, so hopefully the
sunshine will help with some melting, sublimation today.

The 00Z models are generating good radiational cooling conditions
tonight, which combined with the snow and ice pack over much of
the region, will create a perfect storm for sub-zero temperatures
over most of the area east of the Mississippi River. Will undercut
most guidance and go 0 to -3F roughly east of I-57. The ARW and
NMM WRFs are even colder and are not out of the question if calm
winds can develop. Wind chills may approach 10 below zero earlier
on in the evening, but with winds diminishing, the actual air
temperatures will be the story.

Clouds will be on the increase from the west Sunday, so sunshine
will be limited, especially in southeast Missouri. Given the very
cold start to the day and remaining snow cover, figure that the
mid 20s we have forecast may be a bit optimistic, despite south
winds developing over the region.

The 00Z models are now tracking that lead upper-level impulse to
our west Sunday afternoon and evening, but they have not deviated
much with the major clipper system for Monday into Monday evening.
Any precipitation associated with the warm advection limb of the
clipper should stay to our north Sunday night, but we do have
slight chances of light snow along the I-64 corridor just in case
it drops a bit farther south.

The 00Z models are not in perfect agreement in the timing or QPF
yet, but they continue to generate a nice nearly east-west
oriented band of snow moving southward through the region during
the day and possibly lingering into the evening in the southeast.
Mixed in a bit of the slightly wetter WPC QPF and came up with
0.1" to 0.15" of liquid over most of the area. However, far
southern border regions and the western counties in southeast
Missouri may not see much at all.

The precipitation should fall as snow, but temperatures may climb
just enough above freezing in the southern half of the area to
allow for a chance of rain which would be most likely to occur at
the onset with a quick change over to snow. Of course the later
the precipitation arrives in the afternoon, the more likely it may
begin as rain. Anyway with 13:1 to 15:1 snow to liquid ratios,
snowfall totals are generally in the 1-2" range, with the greatest
amounts expected over southwest Indiana. This may require a
Winter Weather Advisory for a portion of the region.

Another shot of Arctic air will overspread the region behind the
clipper and temperatures Monday night will be quite frigid. Most
of the area will be in the single digit above zero, with northeast
sections near zero. Northwest winds will take wind chills down
into the 5 below to 15 below range, with at least the northern
half of the area solidly in Wind Chill Advisory range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Forecast confidence is better than average in the long term given
the overall good agreement among the forecast models and a lack of
substantial precipitation expected.

The period will start with bitterly cold Arctic air in the wake of a
Monday cold frontal passage. A deep upper level trough will pivot
east from the Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday
into the Mid Atlantic States by Wednesday evening. At the same time,
the center of the Arctic high will slide southeast from the northern
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

As a result, wind chill values Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will
likely be below zero across much of the region, with readings colder
than 10 below across a good chunk of the area Tuesday morning. Highs
on Tuesday are only expected to reach the teens, with lows Tuesday
night near the zero mark. Given the lingering snow/ice cover,
Tuesday night lows have the potential to be even colder, especially
where clearing occurs. Wednesday may be a touch warmer with highs
close to 20 degrees, with readings between 5 and 10 Wednesday night.

A gradual warming trend is expected late in the week as the upper
pattern flattens and southwest flow eventually becomes established
by the weekend. One weather feature of interest is a rather compact
upper level low forecast to traverse from the southern Plains into
the Deep South Thursday night into Friday. While this may bring an
increase in clouds locally, much of the associated precipitation is
expected to remain south of the region at this time. Temperatures
are forecast to top the freezing mark over much of the area on
Thursday, and then top the 40 degree mark by Friday. But until then,
the deep freeze will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The main area of lower ceilings has moved southeast of the region,
but a narrow band of clouds near 3kft may spread southward and
impact KEVV and KOWB this morning. Some guidance produces a lower
MVFR ceiling at KOWB for most of the day. Settled for mentioning a
scattered layer for now. Northwest winds may pick up for a brief
while mid to late morning, but much of the gustiness is over. Mid
and high clouds will attempt to spread eastward through the
region today, but they should be giving up this afternoon. Winds
will become light northerly, if not calm, tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS


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