Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 182342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A weak mid level disturbance migrating across KY/TN has resulted in
a few isolated showers and storms close to the TN border. These will
move northeast into portions of west KY thru the afternoon (mainly
southern counties). Other very isolated convection is possible
mainly south and east of Poplar Bluff, MO to Evansville, IN line.
Showers should dwindle in coverage with loss of daytime heating, but
can`t rule out a few affecting the Pennyrile region into the
evening. Mid level ridge axis comes through overnight, allowing for
skies to clear over good portion of the region. Seems to be some fog
potential with the clear skies and light winds in place.

On Wednesday, we will have southerly winds in place ahead of a
developing storm system in the Central Plains. At the same time a
weak ripple in the flow may lead to a few isolated showers and even
a thunderstorm over western KY, with best chance at anything over
southern Pennyrile. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday

A shortwave and associated sfc low moving across the Great Lakes on
Thursday will induce a cold front to push southeast into our area
during the day/evening. While the best dynamics with this system
will be well to our northeast, there looks to be some favorable
ingredients in place, that a few strong storms can`t be ruled out.
Sufficient CAPE and shear will be in place, along with dewpoints
into the low to possibly mid 60s. The front looks to get hung up
just to the south of our area by the end of this period, keeping
rain chances in the picture, particularly for the southern half of
the region.

Temperatures will be quite warm, with many locations into the low
80s both tomorrow and Thursday. Lows will also be mild, around 60
tonight and mid 60s tomorrow night. Cooler temps come in later Thurs
night as northerly sfc winds advect in cooler air.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The period will begin with a cold front off to our south over the
Gulf Coast states. However, even with the front well to the south,
it looks as there may be quite a bit of isentropic lift/overrunning
developing north of the front as a potent mid level short wave moves
east into the Southern Plains Friday afternoon/Friday night. Highest
rain chances will be over the west half of the region, though much
of the rest of the area will likely get into the overrunning rain
shield by Saturday morning.

Models are in decent agreement that the sfc low associated with the
short wave will pass to our south Saturday/Saturday evening. This
would keep most of the instability and severe thunderstorm risk
south of the region. Still quite a ways out in time though, so will
need to monitor model trends the next few days. It would not take
too much of a shift north with this system to bring more of a
thunderstorm threat to the region, especially down near the AR/TN

Biggest impact main come with heavy rain as mid level forcing
increases over the region and PW values rise up close to 1.25",
especially over our southern counties. Could see a good one to two
inches of rainfall in those areas Saturday. Due to the proximity of
the front to our south, will also include a mention of isolated
elevated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon over the south half of the
forecast area.

High pressure will finally settle back into the region by early next
week, bringing dry conditions back to the region. The high will not
be of Canadian origin, however, so temperatures will stay on on the
mild side through the period.


Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Short range guidance indicates that isolated to scattered showers
will linger through much of the evening east of the Mississippi
River. Will leave VCSH in at all sites.

Winds should become calm or very light from the south overnight,
so fog development is a decent bet. However, much of the latest
guidance actually develops MVFR and lower ceilings from northeast
to southwest across the region overnight into Wednesday morning.
Have pretty good confidence in MVFR conditions in the 09Z-15Z time
frame, so will go with prevailing fog in the west and ceilings in
the east.

There should be a pretty thick cu field for much of the afternoon,
but it should most likely be VFR. A stray shower will be possible
mainly over west Kentucky in the afternoon. KOWB would be the
most likely site to be impacted.




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