000
FXUS63 KPAH 032125
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL NOT GO INTO
TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY THE REASON FOR THIS UNWELCOMED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SEE PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA TODAY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 00Z. RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SLEET/POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN AROUND 12Z, THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW AROUND
15Z AT KEVV/KOWB, AND KCGI/KPAH AROUND 18Z. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WILL BECOME NW/N AROUND 03Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 12Z. VSBYS WITH FOG, DENSE AT TIMES,
WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SCT SHRA TODAY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 00Z. RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SLEET/POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN AROUND 12Z, THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW AROUND
15Z AT KEVV/KOWB, AND KCGI/KPAH AROUND 18Z. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WILL BECOME NW/N AROUND 03Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 12Z. VSBYS WITH FOG, DENSE AT TIMES,
WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
PRECIP.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...RST