Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290514
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1214 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Average confidence in the short term mainly due to precipitation
timing differences/possibilities.

Very few changes synoptically in the short term. An approaching
frontal boundary is forecast to become quasi- stationary along
the far northern and northwestern sections of our CWA through the
period. Aloft our region remains in a broad H5 trough. With the
lower troposphere remaining saturated combined with plenty of
instability in the warm sector, a series of upper level
disturbances passing across the area will generate multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Timing of these
disturbances varies per model so trying to pin down the highest
probabilities is difficult at this time.

Temperatures should remain just below normal through the period. No
heat headlines expected, but with dewpoints remaining in the 70s,
humid/sticky conditions will continue.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

An upper level trof over our region and a meandering front across
and sometimes just north of our northern counties will continue to
give our region good chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
into Tuesday.  Models now show the front becoming more northwest to
southeast oriented by Tuesday night instead of moving away from our
region, and this will put the focus for a little better chances
across our east half of counties for Wednesday.  Models also
indicate convection will become more diurnally driven by mid week,
so kept small chances of showers and storms during the day Wednesday
and Thursday, but kept out any chances for precipitation for Tuesday
night and Wednesday night for now.  Confidence is not very high for
Tuesday into Thursday due to the varying solutions with the movement
of the front, so keeping pops in chance category or lower for now
seems to be the best option.

After a break in the heat Sunday, increasing southerly flow beginning
late Sunday will increase temperatures and dew points Monday
continuing through Thursday.  Heat indices will creep back up to
around 100 degrees for our southwest counties by Monday, with 100 to
105 degree heat indices possible across most our region by Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Overnight expect cigs/vsbys to become IFR 08-14z in cigs/fog,
then maybe improve back to MVFR thereafter.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
LONG TERM...RST



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