000
FXUS63 KPAH 161142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Early morning ASOS/AWOS observations from local airports indicated
temperatures were close to freezing across much of the forecast area.
Mesonet observations from across the region revealed sub freezing
temperatures covering much of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana,
and western Kentucky. Most of the observation sites in southeast
Missouri were still above freezing as of 08Z. A very light wind
persisted at some locations overnight, which has likely contributed
to the slightly warmer readings in spots. However, as we progress
through daybreak, a drop of another degree or two should take most
locations to or below 32 degrees before sunrise. Even if sites do
not reach freezing, it is likely that a decent amount of frost
will be present by daybreak. As a result, we plan to continue the
Freeze Warning for the entire area through its expiration time of
9 am.

Beyond this morning`s freeze, the main story in the short term is
the warming trend anticipated through late week as southerly flow
develops on the back side of departing high pressure. Highs today
are forecast to reach close to 60, with readings well into the 60s
on Thursday. The sharpening pressure gradient will result in the
development of gusty winds this afternoon, particularly across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. In addition, minimum
relative humidity will likely range between 25 and 30 percent, and
perhaps even lower depending upon site exposure. However, with
fuel moisture still elevated from recent rains, we do not believe
conditions will warrant any fire weather headlines at this point.
Another cold night is expected tonight, but with a light southeast
breeze, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than this
morning. With lows in the upper 30s, some patchy frost cannot be
ruled out in sheltered areas.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday ahead of a disorganized
system approaching from the Plains. Forecast models have had a
difficult time resolving this particular system. A few days back,
rain looked to be a near certainty on Friday. Now however, given
the model depicted weak forcing for lift and poor moisture return,
it would not be surprising if Thursday night and Friday turned
out dry. As it is though, I am not ready to completely remove
precipitation quite yet. However, rain chances will be substantially
reduced and focused during a narrow window from late Thursday night
into Friday morning. Where rain does occur, it should be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

At the beginning of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should make for dry conditions and
near normal temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave may
bring precipitation chances into the far western sections of our CWA
as early as Sunday afternoon, however models not in the best
agreement on this. The ECMWF/SREF show the H5 ridging holding fast a
bit longer thereby keeping precipitation out of our CWA until Sunday
night. Precipitation chances still look better Sunday night and
Monday as these features track across the region. Instability
parameters now seem strong enough to warrant the mention of thunder
Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday.

Showers on the back side of the aforementioned system may linger
over the southeast sections of our CWA Monday night. Rather low
confidence in this period due to model discrepancies.

Temperatures near normal at the beginning of the period are expected
to warm to just above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all forecast terminals through
tonight. South/southeast winds will pick up around 10 knots by mid
to late morning, with some higher gusts possible by afternoon, then
diminish by sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP