Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240801

300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last in a series of shortwaves in this northwest flow pattern is
progressing through the middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
Areas of mid clouds are accompanying this shortwave across our
region this morning. Some patchy fog may form where skies are still
clear through sunrise...mainly in western Kentucky. In the wake of
the shortwave passage...skies will become mainly sunny this
afternoon. Light west to southwest winds combined with the
increasing sunshine will push highs to around 70.

Tonight...low level warm moist advection associated with southwest
winds should result in some increase in low cloudiness. Low temps
will be mainly in the lower 50s.

Over the weekend...a large upper ridge over the Plains will progress
eastward across the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bring
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Most of the model guidance is
warmer than previous runs...especially for Sunday. Highs should
reach 80 across a large portion of the forecast area on Sunday.

Little in the way of cloudiness or wind is expected Saturday night.
Strong radiational cooling will result in a rather chilly start to
Sunday...with lows in the upper 40s in most places. Conditions will
be favorable for ground fog late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Not much change to the long term. Going forecast on track. Just some
timing adjustments. Will use a blend of previous input with the
latest trends seen via the GFS/ECMWF ops and ensemble mean
solutions. General agreement exists overall. Parent h5 system still
forecast to track across the northern tier of states along the
US/Canadian border, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Tue. A
trailing cold front at that time will be approaching our NW CWFA
counties. Tuesday still looks like the day with the best chance of
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two as the front weakens and
moves through. Will taper off PoPs from NW to SE Tuesday night, with
small chances of showers limited to our AR/TN border counties
Wednesday. We have no PoPs in for Wednesday night and Thursday. That
may change as the ensembles still show the mean trof position to our
west, with the ops models hinting that another wave may move across
the area Halloween. Will wait for more run to run continuity as
variability continues to exist. Monday dry and unseasonably warm,
then we cool back down with the passage of the front Tuesday. A
blend of existing numbers, HPC and MOS were used for temps.


Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Introduced mention of fog into the tafs for the remainder of tonight
into the early morning hours. Large areas of clearing have developed
in the mid level overcast...allowing some fog to form already at a
few sites. Lower clouds based around 4k feet will attempt to
overspread our region from the northwest toward sunrise. This
cloudiness will help mitigate fog potential if it makes it here.
Vsbys may be worse than forecast if these clouds do not arrive by
sunrise. Once fog burns off...vfr conditions are expected for the
remainder of the taf period.





Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.