000
FXUS63 KPAH 111749
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1249 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

This is an interim update for short term weather trends this
afternoon and to prepare for the issuance of a wind advisory for
Wednesday following the passage of the cold front overnight across
the Quad State region.

There are still some detailed gridded forecast work to do in the
next hour or so for the weather and temperatures tonight and
tomorrow, but wanted to post the wind advisory for decision
planners as soon as possible. There may be a slight deficit with
respect to sustained wind critieria around 30 mph, but anticipate
wind gusts at or in excess of 45 mph will definitely be possible.
Winds should approach criteria in Southwest IL by 5 am CDT...working
completely out of the area around 4pm CDT or slightly after.

Plan to issue the wind advisory within the next half hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through thursday night)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Main forecast challenges in the near term lie with thunderstorm
chances this evening, and temperature swings during the next
couple of days.

Today will be unseasonably warm as gusty southwest winds and ample
sunshine will team up to push afternoon temperatures above 70
degrees. Will likely fall just short of record highs, tho, which
are closer to 80. Shower/thunderstorm chances will ramp up tonight
as a sfc low and cold front approach from the west. There will be
quite a bit of shear aloft as a trof digs southeast toward the mid
MS river valley this evening. In addition, the cooling aloft
associated with this trof will likely combine with the warmer air
in the lower levels to create fairly steep lapse rates this
evening. This could lead to the development of scattered strong
thunderstorms along and ahead of the advancing sfc low. Shear
values even suggest the possibility of a few supercells that could
lead to an isolated severe storm risk. Large hail would likely be
the biggest concern. The thunderstorm threat should diminish late
in the evening as instability wanes a bit.

The passage of the low later tonight will allow a strong cold
front to sweep quickly across the region from nw to se. Very mild
temperatures in the 60s ahead of the front will quickly fall off
into the 30s and 40s behind the front. Gusty nw winds will add a
bite to the colder temps on Wednesday. The coldest readings will
come Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure moves in over the
region. In fact, most locations will be down in the upper teens
and lower 20s by sunrise Thu. The good news is that the cold snap
will not last long, as the sfc high will be quick to retreat off
to the east. This will allow winds to become more southerly by Thu
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A zonal flow pattern will start off the long term portion of the
forecast with seasonably mild temperatures. The 11/00Z deterministic
runs from both the GEM and ECMWF indicate generally dry conditions
through Saturday as upper level energy remains well north and just
south of the immediate region. The wetter 11/00Z GFS picks up from
previous runs in bringing the southern stream energy further north.
If this were to occur, we would need to consider a chance of rain
late Friday and Friday night. However, at this time, we prefer to
keep a dry forecast in place given the similarities between the GEM
and ECMWF.

Through the weekend, the upper flow pattern is forecast to undergo
substantial amplification as approaching shortwave energy from the
Plains sharpens a longwave trough over the eastern U.S. As this
occurs, a chance of precipitation in association with the transition
to a cooler air mass is possible. The myriad of solutions from
deterministic runs and individual ensemble members indicates a great
deal of model uncertainty, resulting in relatively low confidence in
any one particular forecast solution.

For instance, some of the ECMWF runs over the past few days have
tended to favor a deeper trough and colder solution by late weekend
and early next week. However, the ensembles would suggest this
solution resides at the extreme end of the forecast spectrum. For
the time being, we will maintain slight/small chances for mainly
light rain Saturday night through Monday, with some potential for a
brief mix with snow before the precipitation comes to an end Sunday
night or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Some mvfr vsbys in haze and fog are likely in the early morning
hours...but not to the extent that occurred Monday morning. Patches
of high cirrus clouds will traverse the region through Tuesday.
South to southwest winds will again pick up during the day
Tuesday...with a few gusts around 20 knots likely. As a strong cold
front approaches our region Tuesday night...isolated to scattered
showers will develop in the evening. Low clouds should become broken
to overcast around sunset...with cigs mainly in the vfr category.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     110>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RP
AVIATION...MY