000
FXUS63 KPAH 302342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means are in decent agreement for this
forecast package, along with most deterministic guidance.

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the axis of the
prominent mid level shrtwv will be moving to the east of the PAH
forecast area. There may be enough unstable moist air in place
between 850 and 700 mb, and lift for a few showers and tstms Sat
afternoon in the Pennyrile region of KY and adjacent parts of swrn
IN. After that, high pressure at the sfc is forecast to sink into
our region, and the mid/upper pattern should become very slack on
the edge of a persistent ridge over the swrn CONUS, and capped for
much of the time, meaning rain-free conditions and a slow warming
trend through next week, as the sun`s energy works on the reasonably
dry air mass.

By Day 7, a cold front will be on the approach but well to our north
as nrn stream shrtwv energy begins to change the mid/upper pattern.
For now, the forecast remains dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance will weaken as it shifts southeast from the Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should keep any rain just south
of the forecast terminals, though an increase in VFR cloud cover
will be noted, especially at KCGI and KPAH. Winds will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$