000
FXUS63 KPAH 290454
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1154 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Update for 00z Thursday Routine TAF issuance (See Aviation
section).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Lightning detector shows some strikes as far south as 2-3 counties
to our north...in central Indiana. That`s in vicinity of surface
low, beneath upper Low just to its north. This cold pool pocket is
modeled to sink south with the Low(s) into/across the middle Ohio
river valley, and our Commonwealth, as we close out the workweek.
It`ll spread increasing shower chances, including a slight chance
of thunder, across esp our north and east as it does so...and be
most pronounced during the daytimes.

Resultant trajectories will spell coolish temps and dew points to
close out the week as well. Highs will be ranging through the 60s
each day, with perhaps some low 70s south and west...while Lows
generally fall into the lower half of the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

By the start of the weekend, our pesky upper level low will still be
situated over central Indiana. While we still may have clouds and
some showery activity do deal with, it will finally be coming to
an end Saturday evening, as the low lifts northward into the Great
Lakes by 12Z Sunday. The best chances will be east of the
Mississippi River. Will keep the chances in the slight to chance
category for now as coverage should be rather scattered by that
point.

We will likely still be dealing with some clouds on Sunday but more
sunshine should arrive on Monday as an upper level ridge builds in.
This will also mean warmer temperatures. In fact, we should see
close to 80 degrees on Monday. We should rise into the lower 80s by
Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge strengthens a bit, as a
strong trough digs into the western CONUS. There continues to be
differences in the timing of when this upper trough will impact our
region. The ECMWF is faster and brings precipitation into the area
as early as Wednesday night. The GFS shows more of a Thursday to
Thursday night time frame for better chances of rain. Since the GEFS
shows us dry through Wednesday, will only maintain a slight
chance running through day 7 and inch it up after that.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

With the loss of daytime heating, clearing occurred faster than
expected at each of the WFO PAH TAF sites. The onset of scattered
to broken ceilings will increase overnight as the upper low moves
closest to the region between 10z-14z. Adjusted ceilings upward
slightly from previous forecast issuance.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith