Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 212336

636 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.


Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

With surface high pressure entrenched over the region, light
northeast winds and clear skies will be the rule throughout the
00Z TAF period. The exceptions are a few cu that may flirt with
KEVV and KOWB later this evening, as well as the usual late night
fog potential at KCGI, if winds can die off enough there.




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