Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 041128 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED E-W OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF OUR CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY TODAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS SCENARIO...FOR THE MOST
PART...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS MODELS SHOWING NO UPSTREAM H5
TROUGHS AND A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE
THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BELOW NORMAL BUT
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODEL VARIABILITY
INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK...EVEN MORE THAN USUAL FOR 6 AND 7
DAYS OUT.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER OR NOT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE FRONT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE INDICATED HEAVY QPF AND LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND QPF IS
CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER. FORECAST POPS WILL BE HELD JUST BELOW THE
LIKELY CATEGORY GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT...TOO EARLY TO
ESTABLISH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL.

ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES QUITE A LOT.
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 500 MB TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHICH RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN INDICATE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD HOLD HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S BOTH DAYS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL FOLLOW THE
WARMING TREND INDICATED BY THE MODELS...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
THE GFS AND GEFS WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH SITES. LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE FIRST SIX HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. WINDS WILL
EITHER BE CALM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AOB
5 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX ...MY


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