000
FXUS63 KPAH 251736
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1236 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

One more hot day on tap, then changes in store. Cold front will
approach our west counties by evening, bisect the area around 06z,
then clear our eastern areas before daybreak. Models continue to
show precip is post frontal, with some elevated instability
present. Will continue with chance PoPs for convection given
uncertainty with respect to coverage. Best chances seem to be NW
of the Ohio, lower SE. Will end precip rapidly by midday Monday.
Monday night through Tuesday night will be dry and noticeably
cooler as surface high pressure builds in, in the wake of the cold
front. Used a model blend and MOS for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Fairly high confidence in the extended.

Especially the deterministic models have come into agreement with
the extended. Previous runs indicated a northwest flow giving way to
ridging and a slow warming trend. The latest runs however keep a
closed low over the east eastern part of the state keeping a
northwest flow over the area. This will keep a dry and much cooler
flow over the region with temperatures remaining below normal
through the upcoming week. The models do indicate ridging late in
the week so temperatures will once again start to rise but it will
remain moisture starved through the weekend. So little to no chance
of rain is expected in the extended. The flow will eventually return
from the southwest bringing a return of moisture to the region seven
to ten days out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The cold front is still on track to move through the TAF sites an
hour or two either side of 06Z. While a stray sprinkle cannot be
completely ruled out this afternoon or evening, scattered showers
will be most likely for several hours behind the front. Coverage
will not be that great, and the impact may be neglible. Will
therefore only go with VCSH at all sites and keep the forecasts
VFR. A TS is not completely out of the question, but coverage
should be too sparse to warrant a mention in the forecast at this
time. KCGI and KPAH should clear in the late morning hours, and
possibly KEVV, too.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS