875
FXUS63 KPAH 131927
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  each afternoon for the next week. The strongest storms may
  pose an isolated threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
  accompany all storms.

- The work week will start out with seasonable heat and
  humidity, but heat indices will climb into the triple digits
  throughout the region Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms near the
Mississippi River will continue to move slowly northeast across
the Quad State through the remainder of the afternoon and into
the evening. DCAPE values are much lower than the last few days,
so there won`t be as much evaporative cooling to generate such cool
outflows and the stronger winds. An isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out, but they should not be as prevalent as
yesterday. Otherwise, the isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through next
weekend. All storms through the week will be capable of
producing brief torrential rainfall, due to the extreme
moisture content of the atmosphere.

High pressure aloft will gradually build across the Quad State
through the work week, which should eventually limit the
coverage of the diurnal convection to some degree, but it will
not be strong enough to prevent it altogether. In concert with
that lesser coverage of convection, temperatures will gradually
trend upward. The entire area should be in the 90s by Wednesday
and some middle 90s will be possible by Thursday. Humidity will
be in full bloom as well, so heat indices will reach the
100-105 range throughout the region Wednesday through at least
Friday. There are signs that a weak frontal boundary may slip
south into the Quad State Friday through next weekend, and that
should lead to increased coverage of convection and a slight
cooling trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

All sites should see at least one round of thunderstorms this
afternoon, and possibly another one this evening. Where skies
can clear out some tonight, fog development is a good bet. KMVN
is most likely to do so, and have 1/2SM FG there. Similar to
this morning, low MVFR ceilings are likely throughout the area
after sunrise, and they may linger for much of the morning. Some
convective development is possible after 16Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS