000
FXUS63 KPAH 130653
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
153 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 127 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Another sweltering scorcher is on tap as dew points should remain
in the lower 70s with the pm mercury soaring into the lower to
perhaps middle 90s in some locales. This will make for another day
of heat indices flirting with the century mark.

Currently a cold front with associated convection stretches
across nrn ptns of IN, IL, MO. This front/storms will be moving
into at least the nrn reaches of our FA by the end of the day, but
some mid level warming ahead of it may preclude much activity from
getting going until tonight. That is when the front makes its more
robust appearance, with best convective chances along OH river
counties overnight. A SLGT risk svr continues, although it does
look like the best 0-6KM shear/instability is a little further
north/east up the OH valley.

With the front streched out somewhere along the lower OH river
valley at 12Z Monday, the driving upper Trof axis swings into play
Monday and kicks the front on thru. It may also develop a 2ndary
front/elevated convection til its passage, so pops continue into
Monday night. After that/fropa, cooler and drier air works into
the region in earnest for Tue-Tue night (and beyond).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

High confidence early in the extended decreasing to medium late the
period.

Models continue to be in good agreement with high pressure building
into the heartland in the cold fronts wake. A north to northeast
flow at the surface will dominate through most of the week. This
will usher in cooler and much drier air for the area. By the end of
the week and into the weekend the flow becomes southeast and finally
southerly next weekend. This will allow for a slow return to more
seasonal conditions. The models are advertising an upper level
trough will phase with a surface low out of the southwest late in
the work week into the weekend. This is where the confidence
decreases. The chance of rain is so slight with qpf so light opted
to leave out pops attm. However will monitor closely for better run
to run continuity for possible slight chc introduction late in the
extended.

Continue with temperatures a good 10 degrees below normal for most
of the work week with a slow moderation back to near normal by the
weekend. RH values will also be unseasonable low for the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 127 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the first half of the
TAF period with primarily mid clouds around, and a persistent
srly/swrly sfc wind as a cold front approaches from the north. The
wind is expected to increase to around 12 kts sustained during the
daytime today, and slowly veer. The front moves in with
showers/storms and restrictions to cigs/vsbys late today and esp
tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$