Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241130
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The skinny upper level ridge that was centered over us during the
evening hours on Monday has been slowly shifting eastward during the
overnight hours. A compact little shortwave that was over southwest
MO earlier Monday evening is slowly moving into the area and
generating a little precip. Not much of it is probably reaching the
ground however.

Some light precipitation is possible as this feature moves across us
early today. By 12Z, this sct precip should be mainly impacting
parts of SEMO, southwest IL and far west KY. As the morning
progresses, the area of mainly scattered showers will be moving
across southern IL and west KY. However, looking at how dry the low
levels are, we will be dealing with sprinkles or just light showers.

By afternoon, the best chances for rain will be across our eastern
counties but models show a decreasing trend as the feature moves
eastward. However, with diurnal heating, we may be able to initiate
some convection in association with the departing wave in the east,
although there is not much instability to work with/weak lapse rates
but the amount of low level moisture will be a bit better by then.
The best instability/better lapse rates will actually be out west in
SEMO by afternoon, but models are differing on whether or not
another wave might move into the area late in the day/evening.

Tonight, it gets increasingly difficult to track any of the waves
embedded in the flow and this is exacerbated by the fact that models
differ on the upper level pattern. The GFS/ECMWF continue to
indicate some upper ridging building in, while the NAM brings
another weak disturbance toward the area, which sounds similar to
what the day crew yesterday dealt with. Will continue with the
small POPs for now.

The signal picks up a bit for Wednesday so feel more comfortable
with some higher POPs. Looks like a brief reprieve from convection
on Wednesday night but we are back at it on Thursday. But again,
nothing to really focus on so broadbrushed chance POPs will have to
cut it for now until the finer scale resolution is able to help us
out.

Southerly winds will gradually usher better low level moisture into
the region which means more humid conditions. This will especially
be true by Wednesday when the low level flow increases and dewpoints
get into the upper 60s. Temperatures will remain the 80s for the
short term period...just a bit above normal. As far as severe
weather, some isolated severe may be possible Wed-Thu as better
moisture becomes established but wind fields are not impressive.
However, instability/mid level lapse rates may be high enough for a
few isolated svr cells.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Above average confidence in the long term due to little change in
the synoptic pattern through the period.

The long term period continues to be wet. With some exception, the
surface and upper air patterns show very little change through the
period. Synoptically, upper level low pressure will remain over the
southwest US putting our region in southwest flow aloft with a
series of upper level disturbances ejecting from the low and passing
across the mid Mississippi valley. In addition, surface high
pressure over the southeast US will keep a southerly wind component
in the lower levels producing a moisture rich environment (dewpoints
in the low to mid 60s) thus increasing boundary level instability.
The combination of moisture, instability, and the lift caused by the
impulses of upper level energy will no doubt produce multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms.

Latest ECMWF showing a couple of periods, namely Saturday night and
Sunday night, where all of the aforementioned don`t come together,
so in an effort to not broad brush every period with small pops,
removed pops from those periods.

High temperatures in the long term period will top out in the low to
mid 80s with overnight lows bottoming out in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Cigs will continue to lower but remain VFR as low level moisture
increases across the area today. Isolated to sct showers may
impact the TAF sites this morning with a passing upper level wave and
maybe a few storms later on this morning/afternoon with an
increase in moisture/instability. Will continue to watch
convection out to our west to see how well it stays together as it
moves in our direction. Winds will be mainly southerly aob 10 kts.
Convection chances tonight do not look promising but we will
continue to monitor.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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