Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 041147
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General high pressure at the sfc, and a ridge axis aloft, will
continue to be the persistent pattern for the PAH forecast area in
the short term. The models indicate that deep moisture will
continue to be lacking, assisted by less evapotranspiration of
late for most of the region. This should preclude all but the
most isold afternoon shower from forming across the region, thus
forecast PoPs are no more than 10 percent anywhere in the short
term.

Meanwhile, above average temps will be the main story, with mid to
upper 60s dewpoints mixing down (albiet breifly) during the
afternoons. This should help to make the warm temps a bit more
tolerable. At this time, the models indicate the peak heat index
numbers will stay in the 90s. We thought the MAV MOS numbers may
be a bit warm for peak afternoon temps, but highs in the lower
half of the 90s should occur over the next three days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The 00Z models are in reasonable agreement in the synoptic evolution
through the extended portions of the forecast. The trough west/ridge
east upper pattern will continue through Monday and into Tuesday,
and then it will flatten out and become nearly zonal mid-week. The
tail end of a mid/upper-level trough will push a cold front through
the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak cyclonic flow
will develop behind this system, as a complete flip/flop of the
upper flow pattern is completed Thursday.

Convective potential will be focused on Wednesday and Wednesday
night with the cold front and mid/upper-level forcing passing
through the region. The models are not painting solid swaths of
convection through the entire area, and convergence about the cold
front may not be that great, so will cap PoPs at 50% for now. The
GEM is much stronger with the mid/upper-level system than the GFS
and ECMWF, which leads to a better defined cold front, and
presumably stronger convection. Therefore, cannot completely rule
out a few severe storms near the cold front Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

The trend in the 00Z models was to hold the cold front back to our
northwest longer with strong zonal flow over the central Plains, so
will keep Monday/Labor Day completely dry, and would like to keep
the entire area dry through Tuesday. However, will have very slight
PoPs Monday night along the northwest periphery of the area, and
slowly increase and spread them eastward through Tuesday night.

With the ridge holding on and less PoPs/clouds, figure that forecast
highs on Monday and Tuesday may not be hot enough. Both days may be
just as warm as Sunday. Clouds and potential precipitation should
finally knock temperatures down to near normal levels Wednesday. A
rather nice surge of high pressure Thursday should lead to quick
drying from northwest to southeast, and temperatures should fall to
below normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Morning fog will continue to restrict vsbys from around midnight
until after sunrise at most terminals. IFR conditions are possible.
Otherwise, winds will be light and variable and skies mostly clear
under high pressure at the sfc and aloft.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DB



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