Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW MOVING CLUSTER HAS MAINTAINED
ITS INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE HELP OF AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THE RESULT OF THIS CLUSTER AND EARLIER CONVECTION, MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN, MOST NOTABLY FROM EAST TO WEST
ALONG INTERSTATE 70. THE REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
KS THIS MORNING WAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR AS WELL. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA, HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT THE INHIBITION AND DEVELOP SCATTERED OR ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
3 PM. IF THIS OCCURS, THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE
WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, WHILE EFFECTIVE SPEED SHEAR IS
NEAR 30 KTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE VEERS WITH HEIGHT,
THEREFORE SUPPORTING A FEW SUPERCILIOUS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. IF THE
STORM BECOMES SURFACE BASED ALONG A BOUNDARY, THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A WEAK TORNADO.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MIGRATES EASTWARD LATER
THIS EVENING, ONGOING STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. ENHANCEMENT AND VEERING OF THE LLJ AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. COUNTIES NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER HAVE PREVIOUSLY SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS. AREAS IN CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 104 TO 109 DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SKIMMING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HEAT INDICIES ARE RUNNING 100-104 OR 105
FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN MORE MORE MIXING AND THINKING FORECAST
DUPONT`S MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TUESDAY CONTINUES HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING TO IMPACT FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT. EC A
BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM AND GFS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON CHANCE POPS
UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

SPEED AT WHICH NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST WILL DETERMINE TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY STAYING WARMER THAN
THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT COMES IN. MIDDLE 80S FOR NW WITH NEAR
90 FOR THE SE...AND COULD NEED TO BUMP THOSE UP A BIT IF THE FRONT
IS SLOWER. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS DRY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS
IN THE 80S. LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES KEEP THE HEAT INDICES NEAR 90
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z THROUGH 16Z AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EAST TO BACK
TO THE SOUTH BY 15Z AROUND 8-10KTS, THEN DECREASE AFTER 02Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53



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