Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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838
FXUS63 KTOP 151104
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
504 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Flow aloft has become more northerly over the Central Plains, as the
upper low to our south yesterday continues to moves off to the east.
Cooler surface high pressure is transient across the area today,
before southerly surface winds develop late in the day.  Sensible
weather impacts will be more sunshine, save some high cirrus, and
think this will help boost temperatures this afternoon.  Advection
changes from cool to warm rather quickly, and as the surface trof
translates over our forecast area in the afternoon, think this will
bode well for some better mixing.  As a result, have gone a few
degrees higher than guidance for temperatures with highs in the
50s, and a few degrees lower for dewpoints. Winds remain generally
less than 10mph, but RH values do drop into the 25-35% range this
afternoon. As warm advection continues overnight, lows should
remain on the warm side with middle 30s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Split upper flow remains in place into the middle of next week. This
keeps cold air from dropping south into the region and temps well
above mid-late February normals. West winds tonight bring a much
warmer airmass in for Thursday and Friday with highs creeping higher
with each set of guidance and have continued to side with the
warmest values. Skies continue to look clear save some cirrus
Thursday night into early Friday. Southern branch wave remains
well south and east of the area Friday and Friday night, but does
allow a weak surface boundary to sink in and may bring slightly
cooler temps Saturday. Precip chances do come late in the weekend
as upper energy pushes across, but the split flow does bring a
slower onset time, as early as Sunday evening. Uncertainty on
ending chances is higher than normal given this flow character
keeping some small PoPs for at least portions of area into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds from the NW
slowly become southwest by the end of the forecast. Could see some
LLWS toward the very end of the period /early Thursday/ but too
early to determine that late in the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Trends continue to support an increasing fire danger setup for
Thursday and Friday. Elevated mixed layer builds in tonight for the
potential for dewpoints to fall quickly during diurnal mixing
Thursday afternoon. Some moisture return does take place Friday
afternoon, leading to a more uncertain moisture forecast here. Will
again lean toward the more mixed/warmer/drier solutions, bringing
minimum RH values into the 22-30 percent range and producing
Rangeland Fire Danger indices well into the Very High range for much
of the central and southern counties Thursday, and at least brief
potential for this category for much of the area Friday. Winds
Thursday afternoon do look stronger in east central Kansas with
gusts around 25 mph possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...65



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