


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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488 FXUS63 KTOP 060525 AAA AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Topeka KS 1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunday should be drier. Expect low chances for storms through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite image showed a low amplitude upper trough across the central MO River Valley into eastern KS. A broad upper ridge extended from the southwestern US eastward across the mid MS River Valley, east into the mid Atlantic states. A tropical disturbance was located off the SC coast, with a a surface trough extending southwest into the central Gulf. A more amplified upper trough was located southwest Canada, with an upper trough axis extending southwest across ID into northwest CA. The 18Z surface analysis showed a surface front extending southwest from eastern MN, across northeast and central NE, into western KS. A prefrontal surface trough was located ahead of the surface front and bisected the CWA from northeast to southwest. Today through Tonight: There may be a few isolated showers this afternoon but subsidence behind the departing H5 trough should limit deep moist convection during the afternoon hours. Early this evening most CAMs forecast isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough axis along the I-70 corridor. MLCAPES will be in the 1500- 2000 J/kg range but the effective shear will be weak under 20 KTS. Thus, any storms that develop early this afternoon along the surface trough will be pulse in nature with the main threat being strong to marginally severe wind gusts. PWs will range from 1.8- 2.0", so there maybe heavy rainfall with the storms this evening and overnight. The line of scattered storms will shift southeast across east central KS during the late evening and early morning hours of Sunday will begin to weaken. Sunday through Saturday: The upper ridge across the southwest US will amplify northward across the central Rockies. The central Plains will be under weak northwesterly mid level flow. Minor perturbations will round the ridge axis and dig southeast across the Plains and mid MS River Valley. Expect warm and humid conditons with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There will be low chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period due to richer gulf moisture, a weak cap and any ascent ahead of the minor H5 perturbations. The effective shear will be weak, so only gusty winds and potential brief heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards. The extended models are in good agreement digging a more amplified H5 trough southeast out of western Canada into the northern Plains and upper Midwest late next week. This will bring a stronger front southeast across the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Highs on Saturday afternoon will be cooler with lower to mid 80s. There may also be an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the TOP/FOE sites for a few hours overnight before shifting ESE of the area. Winds should gradually turn to the northwest and eventually to the north northeast on Sunday as a weak cold front pushes through. VFR conditions should prevail after sunrise Sunday with any risk for storms expected to stay south of the sites. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Omitt