Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 301746

1246 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Upper lead trough axis was over western Missouri while a secondary
trough and associated energy was located across central Kansas north
into Nebraska. The cold front has cleared most of the forecast area
except for areas southeast of I-35 at 08Z. The front will continue
to slowly move off to the southeast and clear the area by 10Z. Some
light rain will be possible through 12z or so with lift from the
secondary upper trough. Some sprinkles or very light rain will be
possible through mid morning before isentropic downglide kicks in
through the rest of the day. Forecast soundings suggest that the low
level moisture and clouds will be slow to erode through the day and
may even see clouds linger in the east well into the afternoon
hours. Gusty winds behind the front will gradually decrease this
afternoon as high pressure builds southeast and pressure gradient
relaxes. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight
with light winds and partial clearing, temperatures will fall into
the mid 40s across north central Kansas and into the lower 50s in
east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Small chances for precipitation exist for much of the forecast.
Initial chances come late Sunday night as south winds return to the
high plains behind the surface high. Modest northwest flow aloft
results in isentropic lift over mainly western locations with
rapidly saturating 700-850mb layer through the night there. 850mb
winds still are only in the 10-20kt range and keeps strong moisture
convergence in check so have kept PoPs modest. Deep layer,
cloud-bearing shear still reaches respectable levels in the veering
setup and enough CAPE present for marginal hail potential. Any
activity would likely diminish Monday morning, though a similar
situation occurs Monday night into Tuesday morning. Moisture and
instability continue to increase to the west with subtle warm front
likely pushing north overnight. Convergence signal is not as strong
as that of Sunday night but moisture transport is better for at
least a slight PoP in western areas overnight, potentially spreading
east Tuesday as the upper flow begins to flatten. Models continue to
suggest at least minor opportunities for convection through Friday,
primarily from storms forming upstream and continuing into the area,
with perhaps somewhat better chances around Thursday night when a
weak synoptic front could sink in. Have some concerns westerly mid
level flow could strong enough to bring an elevated mixed layer in
and keep storms in check, and have kept PoPs below 40% for all

As for temperatures, have lowered Sunday`s highs a few degrees with
some low cloud potential and easterly low level winds persisting,
but highs should return to the mid 70s Monday in better mixing, with
warm frontal passage pushing highs into the 80s for the remainder of
the work week barring festering daytime precip.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Large plume of MVFR cigs across eastern KS, MO, IA, and NE is
likely to continue to impact TAF sites through sunrise on Sunday.
The main uncertainties lie in potential for local thinning of the
cloud deck with localized scattering this evening (best chance at
MHK), and also some chance for cigs to fall below 1000 ft (best
chance at FOE). For now, have gone with a persistent MVFR forecast
through 14Z-16Z at all sites.




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